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Official Election Month Thread: COUP falls short, nothing to see here

Trump back down to -140 in the betting markets.
 
deactherunner said:
How happy should I be about IA? Biden has an early lead there.
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Trump won it by 9%. I would be more encouraged by the fact Biden has done really well in the Twin Cities suburbs relative to Clinton, even the outer ring ones and what that may mean when Wisconsin starts counting early vote. Fox should call MN now. Biden went +100K votes on Clinton in Hennepin county alone and a +7% margin. And Ramsey county hasn't even started turning in votes yet. I am also encouraged in Wisconsin by some specs of blue that are showing up where I'd normally expect them (places Trump turned red) last time.
 
DeacMan said:
Mayor Pete is great. And he'd have gotten crushed bc he'd struggle with the African American and Hispanic voter turnout.
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I think Pete was smart enough and good enough to work on his African american and hispanic voter turnout. Furthermore, it seems like a losing strategy to base a strategy on the african american and hispanic voter turnout. We were going to win CA and NY no matter what. Whites are an overwhelming majority in the swing states, and you need a platform that gets their vote.
 
DistrictDeacon said:
It means that a “perfect” predictive model is worthless if it makes shitty predictions because of known flawed data.
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Who knew the data were flawed? It's not like the variance among polls were massive and indicated that polls were missing some un measured bias and variance. dozens of polls said Biden was a head in FL and all of them were wrong, apparently. What is a predictive modeler to do? Make predictions on a gut feeling that the data are wrong?
 
I really don’t know how you have polls that have the same fucking errors every time. Like Arizona always under represents democrat votes, Florida always overestimates it. Though I agree with Birdman you can only model the input you are given for the model. Such as you can’t blame modelers your need to blame the pollsters. It’s like the early coronavirus data, it was complete shit because we had no testing. You input what you have and make you best modeled guess but it’s going to have crazy potential outcomes because of what you put in.
 
inspectah said:
Too early to call a winner but not too early for deplorables to feel pretty confident. Biden has zero cushion and will have to thread a very small needle.
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The same holds true for Trump right now. MN is Biden's, AZ just got called by Fox (thank God). And MN and WI are very similar in voter make up, albeit WI is a tougher putt IMO.
 
stugotz said:
I mean I'm on CNN and Trump is showing as winning by 13% in MI and PA.
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They haven’t counted many early/absentee votes - it will get tight because as you saw earlier Biden was up 60/40 in the Solid South with early voting
 
DeacMan said:
Trump won it by 9%. I would be more encouraged by the fact Biden has done really well in the Twin Cities suburbs relative to Clinton, even the outer ring ones and what that may mean when Wisconsin starts counting early vote. Fox should call MN now. Biden went +100K votes on Clinton in Hennepin county alone and a +7% margin. And Ramsey county hasn't even started turning in votes yet. I am also encouraged in Wisconsin by some specs of blue that are showing up where I'd normally expect them (places Trump turned red) last time.
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What about the rural counties in Montana?
 
stugotz said:
I think Pete was smart enough and good enough to work on his African american and hispanic voter turnout. Furthermore, it seems like a losing strategy to base a strategy on the african american and hispanic voter turnout. We were going to win CA and NY no matter what. Whites are an overwhelming majority in the swing states, and you need a platform that gets their vote.
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I like Pete too and hope that he has a bright future, but if people in these swing states wouldn't vote for a traditional centrist Democrat like Biden, I just don't see them voting for a very young gay pol who hasn't done more than serve as the mayor of a medium-sized Midwestern city. And again, I don't see any Trump voter switching to Pete.
 
What kind of asshole state do you have to be to not count votes all night?
 
Highland Deac said:
If anyone wants to feel even worse, tonight has been a disaster for the NC Democratic Party. Other than Cooper winning, the GOP is going to pick up at least 2 seats in the state supreme court and possibly a third if the Chief Justice loses, which would give them a 4-3 majority. The crazy NC Lt. Governor candidate is going to win, and Josh Stein is barely hanging on right now. Also, the NC GOP is gaining seats in the legislature instead of losing some, and will have close to a supermajority. A complete disaster. At least Cooper won (I guess.)
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No I think it will be a 4-3 Dem majority because one of the Pubs is already on the Court. Newby.
 
stugotz said:
I think Pete was smart enough and good enough to work on his African american and hispanic voter turnout. Furthermore, it seems like a losing strategy to base a strategy on the african american and hispanic voter turnout. We were going to win CA and NY no matter what. Whites are an overwhelming majority in the swing states, and you need a platform that gets their vote.
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Mayor Pete can be as smart and good as he wants. That's a religious issue you're dealing with. Very hard. If Mayor Pete were not gay he'd be an incredible candidate for a national election. Very poised, likable and very well spoken.
 
BarcaDeac said:
What kind of asshole state do you have to be to not count votes all night?
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I mean, if all your election officials have been working all day, they might need to get a bit of sleep.
 
Highland Deac said:
I like Pete too and hope that he has a bright future, but if people in these swing states wouldn't vote for a traditional centrist Democrat like Biden, I just don't see them voting for a very young gay pol who hasn't done more than serve as the mayor of a medium-sized Midwestern city. And again, I don't see any Trump voter switching to Pete.
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DeacMan said:
Mayor Pete can be as smart and good as he wants. That's a religious issue you're dealing with. Very hard. If Mayor Pete were not gay he'd be an incredible candidate for a national election. Very poised, likable and very well spoken.
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Ok, fair enough. So we ran the right guy, against literally the worst human being in the history of mankind. And it seems like we might lose. So how do we plan to change our platform to improve our chances?
 
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