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Official Election Month Thread: COUP falls short, nothing to see here

-120 now, getting closer to a toss up. Gonna be interesting to see what happens when trump goes up big in Pennsylvania with tons of majority dem votes outstanding for a few days.
 
deactherunner said:
Has someone who isn't foxnews or Deacman called AZ for Biden yet? I think I can go to sleep when that happens.
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Given the numbers that are left, Trump would have to have about 80% of the remaining vote to take the lead back. Biden has that one.
 
Allegheny - my vote - not counted yet for PA - 17%
 
If Biden won Arizona Trump winning the election plummeted to 20% according to Silver’s (as we claim here shitty) model.
 
I will be curious what the popular vote margin ends up being in regards to a polling error. The shit that is the electoral college will be even further magnified if this is still like a 6-7 point Biden popular vote margin. However I expect the popular vote margin to equal the overall polling error from 2016 this time.
 
Dems 2016 vs 2020 in southern MN border counties with WI. All these have 60+ percent in.

Winona (77% in) 43.59 vs. 50.50
Wabasha 32.6 vs 36.5
Goodhue 36.7 vs. 41
Dakota (suburbs) 48 vs 53
Washington (suburbs) 46.5 vs 52.3

Important bc those counties could translate into better margins across the river in Wisconsin once the count the earlies.
 
Looks like senate control is going to hinge on two special elections in Georgia in early January. I wonder if the two happening at one time as well as an African-American preacher being one of the Democrat candidates will drive turnout and make the race closer than the usual special elections in Georgia.
 
Also Michigan had greater than 2008 turnout in Detroit, which was a huge problem in Michigan in 2016. Honestly we can shit on the polls but the polling errors in MI and WI would need to be massive, like crazy bad. PA who the fuck knows, but 269-269 or 270-268 would be what you would expect from good old 2020.
 
tiltdeac said:
-120 now, getting closer to a toss up. Gonna be interesting to see what happens when trump goes up big in Pennsylvania with tons of majority dem votes outstanding for a few days.
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Tried to grab it earlier when I was told Trump was -600 but my site didn’t have it

Gamblers are generally stupid petulant children

I’m probably more educated than most on the topic as a Poli Sci major and history teacher but this Biden win scenario was always fairly likely
 
KingCurtis said:
Looks like senate control is going to hinge on two special elections in Georgia in early January. I wonder if the two happening at one time as well as an African-American preacher being one of the Democrat candidates will drive turnout and make the race closer than the usual special elections in Georgia.
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Perdue is comfortably over 50% from what I've seen.
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
Also Michigan had greater than 2008 turnout in Detroit, which was a huge problem in Michigan in 2016. Honestly we can shit on the polls but the polling errors in MI and WI would need to be massive, like crazy bad. PA who the fuck knows, but 269-269 or 270-268 would be what you would expect from good old 2020.
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Biden is getting it done in MN outstate compared to Clinton. I'm going to start looking at WI counties along the river as Trump made waste there with Clinton.
 
KingCurtis said:
Looks like senate control is going to hinge on two special elections in Georgia in early January. I wonder if the two happening at one time as well as an African-American preacher being one of the Democrat candidates will drive turnout and make the race closer than the usual special elections in Georgia.
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They will definitely break spending records.
 
PhDeac said:
Perdue is comfortably over 50% from what I've seen.
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Generally same spot as Trump right now. Tons of votes remaining from Fulton, Cobb, DeKalb, and Gwinnett. Think it's likely both end up slightly below 50% with the Libertarian candidate pulling 1-2% or so.
 
Yeah it seemed earlier that Biden was limiting damage in PA exburbs compared to Clinton, like winning his home area of Scranton when Trump took it by 10. Save us Midwest!
 
I'm sure other have already said this - but it sounds like this is going to come down to what a lot of people have been saying: it will be really close, with a decent chance of Biden "winning", but not until Wed at the earliest. And with Trump leading in those states as the night ends - meaning he will claim that the election was "stolen" and whatever else comes with that.
 
Bubble Boy said:
I'm sure other have already said this - but it sounds like this is going to come down to what a lot of people have been saying: it will be really close, with a decent chance of Biden "winning", but not until Wed at the earliest. And with Trump leading in those states as the night ends - meaning he will claim that the election was "stolen" and whatever else comes with that.
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I've been flipping around between CNN, MSNBC, PBS, and FOX and they all seem to be doing a fairly good job making it clear that we won't have full results tonight and that's expected.
 
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