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Official Election Month Thread: COUP falls short, nothing to see here

stugotz said:
I think an important lesson is that Biden should be winning this across the board by 15 points. Trump is that awful. If you read these boards, the republican party is filled with ignorant racists. Really, 5% of the republican party are ignorant racists. Trump is going to have 50 million people voting for him. 500 thousand of them might have attended a Trump Rally. that's 1%. Those few might make for good youtube videos, but really the rest of them are just rural america who might not watch much news and just vote for tribalism but without much conviction. They aren't idiot rubes, they just the average white rural american.

If you read these boards it comes off as 90% of the Trump vote attends his rallys and 80% of which is a card carrying KKK member. Neither of these are close to reality.
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Tribalism is a part of it, but you're naive if you think that racism, homophobia, and sexism aren't also a huge part of it. North Carolina voted 60%+ not that long ago to ban gays from getting married, if that SC ruling were overturned I have no doubt that a large majority would gladly vote that way again. We're not that far removed the days of segregation and Jim Crow. Why is it that black politicians - especially black Democrats - always seem to run worse in the polls (like Harrison tonight?) There's even a name for it - the Bradley effect - after the 1982 CA governor's race where polls showed a black LA Mayor leading right up to election day, and yet he lost. Tribalism is a part of it, the economic collapse of much of rural, small-town America and subsequent resentment and anger is a part of it, but so is racism and homophobia and sexism. It's a part of it, like it or not.
 
GA moving to 64% Biden. based on THE NEEDLE. If Biden take AZ, GA, and Omaha, he needs only one of PA/MI/WI, if my drunken math is right.
 
NC needle back down to 82% from 95%. Votes outstanding predominantly in democrat leaning precincts. Don't think there's enough juice left though.
 
Highland Deac said:
Tribalism is a part of it, but you're naive if you think that racism, homophobia, and sexism aren't also a huge part of it. North Carolina voted 60%+ not that long ago to ban gays from getting married, if that SC ruling were overturned I have no doubt that a large majority would gladly vote that way again. We're not that far removed the days of segregation and Jim Crow. Why is it that black politicians - especially black Democrats - always seem to run worse in the polls (like Harrison tonight?) There's even a name for it - the Bradley effect - after the 1982 CA governor's race where polls showed a black LA Mayor leading right up to election day, and yet he lost. Tribalism is a part of it, the economic collapse of much of rural, small-town America and subsequent resentment and anger is a part of it, but so is racism and homophobia and sexism. It's a part of it, like it or not.
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Yet Obama had the biggest cleanest Presidential victories of the last 24 years. Maybe the last clear victories ever.

Dem candidates have to be special. Republicans can just run any old person who can spit out talking points.
 
Because this country is profoundly stupid, if the election is somehow tied (seems unlikely), it goes to the House-but each state's delegation gets one vote. So all the fun of the electoral college, but factor out any dependence on population, and instead factor in Gerrymandering. Anyway, for this congress, the delegation advantage count was 26-22-2 with Republicans in the lead, PA and MI were the ties. Any chance we flipped a few of those?
 
People are aware that Dems used to carry WI and MI and PA with relative ease right?

As for GA, by my math if Biden can get say 66% of the expected remaining votes to be counted he can win. Most appear to be in Fulton and Dekalb where Biden is running up more than enough to make up that difference.
 
PhDeac said:
Yet Obama had the biggest cleanest Presidential victories of the last 24 years. Maybe the last clear victories ever.

Dem candidates have to be special. Republicans can just run any old person who can spit out talking points.
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I think Obama got a huge boost with the 2008 Stock Market collapse and onset of the Great Recession, and with general fatigue with Bush after 8 awful years, especially his second term. Also, Obama was a once-in-a-generation politician, imo, kind of like Kennedy or FDR or Reagan. I agree that Dem candidates have to pretty remarkable, but the Democrats also can't keep relying on getting an Obama every election cycle just to win.
 
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Highland Deac said:
I think Obama got a huge boost with the 2008 Stock Market collapse and onset of the Great Recession, and with general fatigue with Bush after 8 awful years, especially his second term. Also, Obama was a once-in-a-generation politician, imo, kind of like Kennedy or FDR or Reagan. I agree that Dem candidates have to pretty remarkable, but the Democrats also can't keep counting on getting an Obama every election cycle just to win.
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Biden should have gotten the same boost from the pandemic and economic collapse. There are three different realities.  Actual reality.  Conservative/Trump reality.  And people living in their own personal life and Netflix reality that just avoids all of this mess. There aren’t enough people in the first group to run a reality based country.
 
Highland Deac said:
I think Obama got a huge boost with the 2008 Stock Market collapse and onset of the Great Recession, and with general fatigue with Bush after 8 awful years, especially his second term. Also, Obama was a once-in-a-generation politician, imo, kind of like Kennedy or FDR or Reagan. I agree that Dem candidates have to pretty remarkable, but the Democrats also can't keep relying on getting an Obama every election cycle just to win.
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Which is why democrats should run progressive candidates. Especially when virtual republicans like Biden will be painted like Trotsky anyway.
 
DeacMan said:
People are aware that Dems used to carry WI and MI and PA with relative ease right?

As for GA, by my math if Biden can get say 66% of the expected remaining votes to be counted he can win. Most appear to be in Fulton and Dekalb where Biden is running up more than enough to make up that difference.
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PhDeac said:
Biden should have gotten the same boost from the pandemic and economic collapse. There are three different realities.  Actual reality.  Conservative/Trump reality.  And people living in their own personal life and Netflix reality that just avoids all of this mess. There aren’t enough people in the first group to run a reality based country.
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Perhaps, but as you noted, Biden isn't Obama. If the Democrats can't find a way to elect decent but non-charismatic presidential candidates, as they're unlikely to find one each election cycle, they're likely to be a minority party for a long while. Agree on the different realities. The GOP has spent a quarter-century methodically building up their own world - in the media, on the net, even in schooling (the explosion in homeschooling, charter schools, and the like), and it's clearly paid off. You can now go from childhood to homeschool high or Christian HS to Christian college (Liberty, etc.) and watch only Fox and read only right-wing websites and literature. You never have to listen or hear anything outside your bubble if you don't want to, unless your coworkers or some relatives have different views. And it's been incredibly effective, as we saw in 2016 or tonight.
 
Man, I think Biden may have better odds in Georgia right now than he does in WI. There are basically a handful of districts with remaining vote. Not clear how many votes are left to be counted but if CNN is right and its 8-9% then if he wins 65% or so he'll win the state with maybe 20K votes to spare. And the votes largely look like they are in Fulton and Dekalb
 
Deacfreak07 said:
Which is why democrats should run progressive candidates. Especially when virtual republicans like Biden will be painted like Trotsky anyway.
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I don't disagree. At this point it's clear that the Democrats need to do something different, because same old, same old doesn't seem to be working.
 
Highland Deac said:
I think Obama got a huge boost with the 2008 Stock Market collapse and onset of the Great Recession, and with general fatigue with Bush after 8 awful years, especially his second term. Also, Obama was a once-in-a-generation politician, imo, kind of like Kennedy or FDR or Reagan. I agree that Dem candidates have to pretty remarkable, but the Democrats also can't keep relying on getting an Obama every election cycle just to win.
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Highland Deac said:
Perhaps, but as you noted, Biden isn't Obama. If the Democrats can't find a way to elect decent but non-charismatic presidential candidates, as they're unlikely to find one each election cycle, they're likely to be a minority party for a long while. Agree on the different realities. The GOP has spent a quarter-century methodically building up their own world - in the media, on the net, even in schooling (the explosion in homeschooling, charter schools, and the like), and it's clearly paid off. You can now go from childhood to homeschool high or Christian HS to Christian college (Liberty, etc.) and watch only Fox and read only right-wing websites and literature. You never have to listen or hear anything outside your bubble if you don't want to, unless your coworkers or some relatives have different views. And it's been incredibly effective, as we saw in 2016 or tonight.
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In fairness, that flows both ways. My son at dinner tonight talking about the election, I can tell many of the kids at school feel pressure to say they support Biden.
 
DeacMan said:
In fairness, that flows both ways. My son at dinner tonight talking about the election, I can tell many of the kids at school feel pressure to say they support Biden.
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I don't doubt there is some of that, but it's simply on another level with conservatives, imo.
 
Biden’s 8.2-point margin in Minnesota has held up pretty well with around 90 percent of the expected vote counted here. That’s close to our final polling average there (+9.2), which might imply that the polling was halfway decent in Michigan and Wisconsin, too.
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From Silver. I mean there's no chance Wisconsin or Michigan get anywhere near a +7 Biden advantage (he projected +8), right?
 
DeacMan said:
People are aware that Dems used to carry WI and MI and PA with relative ease right?

As for GA, by my math if Biden can get say 66% of the expected remaining votes to be counted he can win. Most appear to be in Fulton and Dekalb where Biden is running up more than enough to make up that difference.
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Yes. We’ve been trying to tell you this was t going to be easy.
 
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