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Ongoing Dem Debacle Thread: Commander will kill us all

It's hard to evaluate a Donald-Bernie election because we don't know who would run as a third party (and someone certainly would) or how that person would siphon votes from the two major candidates.
 
Deacfreak07 said:
Pence definitely helped Trump.
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Disagree. Pence was fairly disgraced after that IN bathroom bill fiasco. Right wingers were pissed he caved and didn't support the bill he originally signed, and the business community didn't completely trust him. And liberals despise him. Only thing he did was further convince evangelicals Trump was their guy, but they were already pretty convinced of that.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
It's hard to evaluate a Donald-Bernie election because we don't know who would run as a third party (and someone certainly would) or how that person would siphon votes from the two major candidates.
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Trump wouldn’t lose any support to a 3rd party candidate. His party loves him.

cville deac said:
Disagree. Pence was fairly disgraced after that IN bathroom bill fiasco. Right wingers were pissed he caved and didn't support the bill he originally signed, and the business community didn't completely trust him. And liberals despise him. Only thing he did was further convince evangelicals Trump was their guy, but they were already pretty convinced of that.
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Pence turned out evangelicals after the access Hollywood had them slightly conflicted. Pence definitely helped.
 
RJKarl said:
Brown is loved in OH. He could have turned that state and if he campaigned in PA, WI and MI, he could have had an impact just by showing up.
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Don't care the extent to which Brown is loved in OH. She lost OH by 8%. Brown on that ticket doesn't make a 9 point difference.
 
Deacfreak07 said:
Trump wouldn’t lose any support to a 3rd party candidate. His party loves him.



Pence turned out evangelicals after the access Hollywood had them slightly conflicted. Pence definitely helped.
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Access Hollywood unfortunately didn't move the needle. Maybe he helped reassure evangelicals, but they weren't exactly wavering in their support of Trump.

Agree with your 1st sentence. He's got 40% or so solidly behind him pretty much no matter what. A damning Mueller report? Nah, won't significantly move the needle. Neither will a pee pee tape. The only thing that would result in a significant drop off is a bad recession.
 
cville deac said:
Access Hollywood unfortunately didn't move the needle. Maybe he helped reassure evangelicals, but they weren't exactly wavering in their support of Trump.

Agree with your 1st sentence. He's got 40% or so solidly behind him pretty much no matter what. A damning Mueller report? Nah, won't significantly move the needle. Neither will a pee pee tape. The only thing that would result in a significant drop off is a bad recession.
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#anecdotes but I have a pretty significant network of evangelicals with my family and friends. Pence definitely helped. He’s irrelevant now because they have grown the love Trump’s brand of #winning owning the libs. I have had many many folks tell me prior to 2016 that Mike Pence was the reason they were voting for Trump.
 
cville deac said:
Don't care the extent to which Brown is loved in OH. She lost OH by 8%. Brown on that ticket doesn't make a 9 point difference.
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He's been up 15-20% throughout this election.

He wouldn't have had to change 9%. He would have had to change 4% +1. By costing Trump that amount, she would have won.
-4+1 vote
Trump 54 49.9999
Hillary 46 50.0001

Your premise is grossly in error.
 
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Strickland33 said:
If Dems don’t realize Cory Booker sucks by now, then we might as well just hand Trump another term and save ourselves the anxiety.
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Guy was a total liability in the passing game. Only averaged 10 yards a catch. America wants to elect pass catchers, not blockers.
 
RJKarl said:
He's been up 15-20% throughout this election.

He wouldn't have had to change 9%. He would have had to change 4% +1. By costing Trump that amount, she would have won.
-4+1 vote
Trump 54 49.9999
Hillary 46 50.0001

Your premise is grossly in error.
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pretty funny calculations from a guy who says a vote for third-party candidates was a vote for Trump
 
palmab03 said:
Yes Obama won, and now 100% of the right's enthusiasm is stoked in racism and/or misogyny. Nominate the white dude. You only need like two tenths of a percent in a couple states. Bernie would win in a landslide, for example.
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Trump won a smaller % of the popular vote than Romney, and Trump is less popular now than he was in 2016. The "enthusiasm" among his base isn't important. 1 excited racist voter is still only 1 vote. What was important about Trump was his appeal to the rust belt, countered by Hillary's lack of turnout in the rust belt. Hypothetically, you really think Trump beats 3rd term Obama?
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
pretty funny calculations from a guy who says a vote for third-party candidates was a vote for Trump
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WTF are you talking about? Correcting his bad math has nothing to do with throwing away your vote on for a third-party candidate at this point.
 
RJKarl said:
It's way, way, way to early but here's how I'd have the Dems ranked by odds as of today (and will dramatically change by mid-19):

Biden 4/1
Harris 6/1
Warren 10/1
Bernie 10/1
Klobuchar 12/1
Gillibrand 15/1
Booker 15/1
Oprah 7/1
Joe Kennedy 15/1
Beto (if wins)12/1
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Al Gore will be a spry 72.
 
Demonwolverine said:
Al Gore will be a spry 72.
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RJKarl said:
It's nice that you have finally gotten to the Sherrod Brown party and the Hillary/Sherrod ticket.
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You would have to go back and look, but I think my favorite candidates on Clinton’s alleged VP shortlist were Brown and Becerra.
 
RJ was cool before the word was invented
 
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