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Report: Kavanaugh won’t commit to recusal from Trump/Mueller related matters

deactherunner said:
Or the presence of one accusation makes it more likely that there are others, and that this wasn't a one time event like some are claiming?
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From a probability perspective Jbug is not wrong here. If you use past data, which indicate the guy has been sexually unaggresive for 3 decades, to model the likelihood that this is true you’d probably conclude that this account lies outside the expected behavior of this individual. Absent other information that is not an irrational conclusion, but, of course, this ignores that there is other information available.
 
birdman said:
From a probability perspective Jbug is not wrong here. If you use past data, which indicate the guy has been sexually unaggresive for 3 decades, to model the likelihood that this is true you’d probably conclude that this account lies outside the expected behavior of this individual. Absent other information that is not an irrational conclusion, but, of course, this ignores that there is other information available.
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What data would that be in this case?
 
LETTER

An Evangelical’s Plea: Oppose Kavanaugh
A pastor calls on fellow evangelicals to follow the teachings of Jesus, not the agenda of the Republican Party.

To the Editor:

Re “Religious Right Wary of Delays on Court Pick” (front page, Sept. 21):

Not all evangelicals support the nomination of Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. His nomination is just the latest effort by the Trump administration to suppress the common good in favor of an immoral agenda. This was true even before the credible sexual assault allegations came to light.

For quite some time evangelicals have walked in lock step with the Republican Party, but the time has come for many of us to place values over party. We must let our faith guide us toward public servants who govern for the good of all people. Judge Kavanaugh opposes the Affordable Care Act, which has brought health care to the sick and vulnerable, and would gut the rights of immigrants in a country that was built by them. Now he faces twin allegations: an egregious act of violence toward a young woman, and lying about it.

As followers of Jesus, it should be plain to evangelicals that this man’s beliefs are not aligned with ours. Evangelicals should let Jesus’ teachings, not a misguided association with the Republican agenda, inform our views and our votes.

Doug Pagitt
Minneapolis
The writer is a pastor and executive director of Vote Common Good.
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Good to see.
 
Trump has the perfect replacement for Kavanaugh - Mark Cuban. The Mavs owner says he knew nothing about decades of abuse and harassment in the Mavs' office. He knew his beat writer had been found guilty of physically abusing a girlfriend and didn't fire him. The same guy beat up a female Mavs employee so badly she had visible bruises for a week. Cuban didn't do anything again. Women should feel really safe knowing they can beaten up and have their abuser still working with them with the owner's blessing.

Cuban would be the perfect replacement.
 
 
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The GOP continues to step in shit at every turn. These assholes are great at getting themselves elected and staying in office, but goddamn they suck at government and ethics. Just awful.
 
Nothing shady here to see here, move along. The GOP and their staffers aren’t hiding anything. Trust me, I heard it from Lectro.
 
Dr. Ford has agreed to testify next week. The GOP’s worst fears are coming to fruition.
 
Newenglanddeac said:
Dr. Ford has agreed to testify next week. The GOP’s worst fears are coming to fruition.
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Meh, I'm not so sure about that. Both sides are dug in and adamant, and he'll still be confirmed. And I'm not sure if it makes any difference this Fall. Heitkamp and Donnelly probably still have to vote yea and are not thrilled she's testifying.
 
DistrictDeacon said:
Exactly. Birdman should know that the absence of data is not data.
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Well, that's actually not true in the case. I think that jbug is asserting that we have one accusation from 36 years ago and then 35 straight years without an accusation...so the data set in his mind that looks like 1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0. Sure, coming up with 35 straight 0s depends on how hard you look, i.e. What's the probability that some of those 0s are 1 but you just didn't detect them? We don't know, but no other accusations have come up, unlike in the Roy Moore or the Franken cases...the longer we go with out detecting another 1 the less likely that the one 1 we have is a true positive...that is not a flawed argument from a probability theory perspective. I actually just co-authored a paper on false positive detection probability in a bird banding study, in those data if we had an individual that was seen once and never seen again for 35 times, it is highly likely that that individual is dead, or that it was never really there to begin with.
 
cville deac said:
Meh, I'm not so sure about that. Both sides are dug in and adamant, and he'll still be confirmed. And I'm not sure if it makes any difference this Fall. Heitkamp and Donnelly probably still have to vote yea and are not thrilled she's testifying.
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Maybe it's just my bubble, but I am having a hard time picturing the voter who a)is paying enough attention to know how Heitkamp/Donnelly votes; b)wishes that they vote to confirm and c)wouldn't just vote for the Republican anyway to make sure that any future Trump justices are confirmed.
 
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