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Romney campaign admits it - They're in big trouble

ncsportsnut1 said:
Carter, burdened with 21% interest rates, double digit unemployment, etc., was ahead of Reagan in one poll on the Friday before the election, and Reagan was ahead in the other. The tie broke and Reagan won a solid victory.
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Revisionist history. Reagan was well ahead beginning in June. Again you're engaging in creative fantasy

trialheats1980-1024x744.png
 
ncsportsnut1 said:
1) Would like to know your source for the campaigns internal polling data.
2) Of course, just like everything information related. Not sure what your point is though.
3) Obama's margin of 7.6 at this time in 2008 is compared to approximately 1.5% today. If the "composite polling data" is close or accurate, this race is much closer and very winnable for Romney. Your turn.
4) Romney is well positioned financially, and voter enthusiasm on Republican side is much higher than Democrat side and has been all year. Romney is winning independents, married female voters, large margin on white males (white voters are still 77-80% of likely voters), black voter turnout will be much less than the record turnout of 2008 and will return to more traditional #s see 2004; Hispanic voter registration is down compared to 2008; Dem registration in 10 battlegrounds down 1 million compared to 2008 and Republicans are even now in battlegrounds. There's a few for starters.
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Obama just out-raised Romney for the first month since early spring. The money is moving to the favorite.

I have no idea where you get your analysis, but it flies in the face of just about all professional analysis on the state of the race.
 
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WFFaithful said:
Parts of Obamacare are good? Facepalm
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I was stunned when Romney said that. Floored. Strategically, he can't possibly attempt, now, to parse out things he likes about Obamacare from things he doesn't. He's been far too ideologically committed to total repeal as the GOP nominee. For Romney to suddenly realize that there are parts of Obamacare everyone likes, and then to try to adopt those parts, piecemeal, is borderline suicidal, politically. If he's ever looked opportunist, wishy-washy, or desperate before, this flip-flop will blow that out the water. He cannot attempt a partial retreat on HC because he's slowly realizing that people actually like large parts of it when it's laid out for them (Clinton, Bill, who will be working in FL for the next two months).

HC reform is already a root issue that cuts against Romney's trustworthiness. He instituted a similar reform plan in MA, then disavowed his own plan to get the GOP nod, but now wants to say that he'd like to keep some of Obamacare? No chance. This move is likely because the Dem convention clarified exactly what will be lost if Obamacare is totally repealed -- no lifetime cap, accepting pre-existing-condition enrollees, 80-85% of premiums required to be spent on actual HC, kids can stay on parent's insurance, medicare fund extension through 2024, etc. And people don't want those things repealed. Especially old people.

Obama is going to whack Romney with that statement in the debates. "So you admit, now, and again as you did in MA, that my HC reform was a good idea?" Romney's attempt to pander for votes on this issue will hurt him with liberals (it's too late to un-sell-out your old positions), independents (three different positions on HC reform, each when politically expedient?), and conservatives (utter betrayal of the repeal drumbeat, raising old concerns that he's just paying lip-service to being a true conservative).

If Romney thinks he can make a tactical retreat on HC reform, he's totally deluded.
 
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RJKarl said:
As I said dozens of times in 2009/10, Obama's PR and communications team failed miserably. They made Spiro Agnew look like a PR genius. That's why they lost as badly as they did in 2010.
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it's also because obama sucks. i mean, he really really really really sucks. of course romney is worse which is why this election is so much like 2004.

hey america, who do you want? a total failure or a hopeless douche?

america, fuck yeah
 
Deadbolt said:
Quotes for reference:

http://ideas.time.com/2012/09/10/the-truth-about-mitt/?hpt=hp_t2

Also said it would take more than one term to fix the deficit.
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As the New York Times pointed out in a piece written off the interview, there was the allowance that perhaps President Barack Obama’s health care reform is not all bad. (“There are a number of things that I like in health care reform that I’m going to put in place,” said Romney, though keep is a more accurate term in this context than put. “One is to make sure that those with pre-existing conditions can get coverage.”)

This is going to haunt him. You just can't flip-flop this blatantly on key, highly-policitized issues. Especially not a third time. Obama should be able to use this effectively against Romney in the debates. Romney is now trying to claim a key component -- perhaps the key component -- of Obamacare for himself, which he cannot possibly pull off. Which, in context, is incredibly ironic, since an argument can be made that it was his idea, before he abandoned it to cozy up to the hard-right conservatives who (eventually) nominated him for president.

Where does candidate Romney think he's going to land in the end? What's his strategy? He blew any chance of moving to the middle and running as a centrist moderate by choosing Ryan (which I thought was foolish then, and is proving to be a detriment now). And statements like the above are diametrically opposite a "rally the base" strategy. Frankly, that's a "piss off a conservative base that never really embraced you" type statement. What's the plan? How does this work?
 
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Deadbolt said:
Quotes for reference:

http://ideas.time.com/2012/09/10/the-truth-about-mitt/?hpt=hp_t2

Also said it would take more than one term to fix the deficit.
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I'm too lazy to find the exact quote, but in the interview where he said it would take two terms to fix the deficit, he specifically stated that trying to fix the deficit too fast would damage the economy. I bet Ryan almost spit his P90x protein shake out of his nose when he read that one, because he and all his friends on the budgetary right have been running for months on the twin concepts that (i) there is no way to cut government too fast and (ii) the way to fix the economy is to slash government spending that is crowding out private sector spending.

Romney trying to walk his way back to the middle in September is political suicide.
 
Mitten, please pick up the white courtesy phone...
 
If these quotes aren't on television and in every ad space possible by week's end, the Obama campaign is brain dead. It's like Romney is gift wrapping his own silver bullet for Barack.
 
Deadbolt said:
Quotes for reference:

http://ideas.time.com/2012/09/10/the-truth-about-mitt/?hpt=hp_t2

Also said it would take more than one term to fix the deficit.
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Facepalm , again

Deacon923 said:
I'm too lazy to find the exact quote, but in the interview where he said it would take two terms to fix the deficit, he specifically stated that trying to fix the deficit too fast would damage the economy. I bet Ryan almost spit his P90x protein shake out of his nose when he read that one, because he and all his friends on the budgetary right have been running for months on the twin concepts that (i) there is no way to cut government too fast and (ii) the way to fix the economy is to slash government spending that is crowding out private sector spending.

Romney trying to walk his way back to the middle in September is political suicide.
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Aren't a lot of aspects of Ryan's plan not instituted until 5-10 years down the road?
 
The hapless masochists running the Romney campaign need to put a ball gag in Mitt's pie hole, cuff him, and get him on a plane to the Cayman Islands until the first debate. They've spent millions on positioning Mitt as a "severe conservative" and the GOP base doesn't believe that for a minute. Moderates and independents don't like where Mitt's policies are now and they have whiplash from watching the tortured policy gymnastics Romney's taken since leaving MA. Mitt's incompetent handlers had a chance to painlessly (i.e. Mitt didn't have to speak, sing, or answer questions) re-introduce (after running non-stop for five years) himself in a weepy video, but instead they moved that out of prime time so Dirty Harry could pistol whip an empty chair. Romney has to destroy Obama during the debates while simultaneously trying to prove he's human and finding the exact sweet spot on issues after having spun at least 540 degrees on every one.
 
ncsportsnut1 said:
Carter, burdened with 21% interest rates, double digit unemployment, etc., was ahead of Reagan in one poll on the Friday before the election, and Reagan was ahead in the other. The tie broke and Reagan won a solid victory.
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Carter never had double digit unemployment. His worst month ever was 7.8%. You're probably thinking of Reagan.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
The hapless masochists running the Romney campaign need to put a ball gag in Mitt's pie hole, cuff him, and get him on a plane to the Cayman Islands until the first debate. They've spent millions on positioning Mitt as a "severe conservative" and the GOP base doesn't believe that for a minute. Moderates and independents don't like where Mitt's policies are now and they have whiplash from watching the tortured policy gymnastics Romney's taken since leaving MA. Mitt's incompetent handlers had a chance to painlessly (i.e. Mitt didn't have to speak, sing, or answer questions) re-introduce (after running non-stop for five years) himself in a weepy video, but instead they moved that out of prime time so Dirty Harry could pistol whip an empty chair. Romney has to destroy Obama during the debates while simultaneously trying to prove he's human and finding the exact sweet spot on issues after having spun at least 540 degrees on every one.
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Eh, regardless of whether they are in love with him or not, it's not like the GOP is not going to turn out and vote for him over Obama. This election is about two things: (1) Trying to sway some people whose minds are not already made up on Obama (which is relatively few to begin with) to vote for him. Those people are not following this on a daily basis, so conflicting soundbites are not going to have much impact on them. If they hear something they like, they will probably go with it regardless of whether or not it is consistent. (2) Hope that some of the minorities and hipsters who were gung-ho on Obama don't show up like they did in 2008.

So while there is no doubt that Romney is an assclown, his missteps are not going to hurt him as much if this election weren't simply Obama versus not-Obama.
 
I don't think that logic applies with an incumbant. Those who want Not-Obama are going to turn out because they are the ones wanting the change more than they are wanting a particular individual. Those who want Not-Romney are not going to turn out, because their position is the status quo.
 
Despite your personal hatred of all things Bush, I would wager that more people currently want Obama out than wanted Bush out at the time.
 
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