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Rove calls it for Romney

EatLeadCommie said:
LOL @ the idea Silver would lose his job if Romney wins. The guy has made his name. He will continue to be employed. Hell, he'll probably get to replace Snuffalofagus on Meet The Press.
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If he's way off, he becomes irrelevant. People like me won't go to his site, read his books, or care about his opinion. His whole value is being accurate. Take that away, and it's Nate Silver who? He becomes an internet has-been.
 
Sgt Hulka said:
Shoo might be the biggest asshole on this website...with apologies to Milhouse who wants to be, but is too funny to garner the title.
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Thanks. But don't sell yourself short, you're an enormous asshole.

Wrangor's argument here is 5th grade level. You pity him and feel bad when he's attacked because he's so fucking naive , but he's an adult and can use the ignore function like a big boy.
 
ArlingtonDeac said:
If he's way off, he becomes irrelevant. People like me won't go to his site, read his books, or care about his opinion. His whole value is being accurate. Take that away, and it's Nate Silver who? He becomes an internet has-been.
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What does way off mean? By the nature of his model he could never really be way off. If Romney happens to win he could always say "The 20% (or whatever) came through".

Right now he has Obama at +300 EV. I will take that line...anyone want a bet?
 
State by state. If Silver misses on more than three swing states, he's served no informational purpose.

Frankly, he's putting most of his credibility on an Obama win. When you get to 80%, you can't miss and retain much credibility. At least not with me.
 
So does that mean you are giving me the under Obama 300 EVs?
 
I've got Obama at 290, but wouldn't be surprised by 303 (to me, the question is whether Obama is going to win VA). My gut says no, despite the recent polls, so I can't take the over with any confidence. But I'll bet an avatar week again just for fun if you want.
 
Didn't we do that last year about something (and I lost)?

Sounds good...you are on!
 
One day Pubs will realize (as Joe Scarborough likes to say) Pennsylvania is fools gold. There are not enough votes in central and western PA to offset Philly.
 
Romney is searching for a crack. Some math that can stop Obama. Wisconsin. Ohio. Pennsylvania. Lose them all, and Romney has no chance. Absolutely none (even adding only NV to that three would reelect Obama). So he's talking in PA. But which one of those three states does he have any hope of flipping? Seems like none, but he's got no choice but to try them all. I'd hate to live in one of those states for the next four days. Just don't watch TV at all.
 
ArlingtonDeac said:
Romney is searching for a crack. Some math that can stop Obama. Wisconsin. Ohio. Pennsylvania. Lose them all, and Romney has no chance. Absolutely none (even adding only NV to that three would reelect Obama). So he's talking in PA. But which one of those three states does he have any hope of flipping? Seems like none, but he's got no choice but to try them all. I'd hate to live in one of those states for the next four days. Just don't watch TV at all.
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His "easiest" shot is Ohio. But if he loses that he has better chance with Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Colorado than he does Penn IMO.

BTW...if he wins Ohio (and I don't think he will) he wins the Presidency.
 
Well, Carter supporters in the beltway probably thought he had it in the bag. He had a big lead in the polls with the "Silvers" of the day. But I must say polling is so much more scientific today today that you are right. Sadly, I already cast my vote otherwise I wouldn't bother.
 
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Obama was in Wisconsin today, and will be back on Saturday and Monday. Clearly, he thinks he's got the Badger State all wrapped up.

Also, on November 5, 2009, The Most Honest Man In Political Forecasting said the following:

In almost every competitive general election, the party that loses the contest has also lost independent voters. This is because most people (although less so in gubernatorial elections) vote strictly along party lines: the Democrat might be all but guaranteed 80 to 90 percent of the Democratic vote, and the Republican 80 to 90 percent of the Republican vote. Except in certain regions of the country where one or another party encompasses a particularly wide range of ideologies (such as NY-23′s Republicans or vestigial “Solid South” Democrats), it’s independents who swing the vote, since they represent the overwhelming majority of the votes which are up-for-grabs. This must necessarily be the case.
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Romney lead among independents in NPR national poll: 51-39
Romney lead among independents in CBS/New York Times national poll: 51-39
Romney lead among independents in Pew national poll: 48-40
Romney lead among independents in Fox News national poll: 46-39

This seems to me to be the elephant in the room (no pun intended). If independents decide elections (which must be true, because Nate Silver said it was), and most of the polls show Romney winning independents by a healthy margin, it seems that it should follow that Romney is in good shape to win.
 
List of on-air advertising buys in major swing states over the last few days...

Ohio - $30M total: Romney $18.4M, Obama $11.4M
Florida - $22M total: Romney $13.7M, Obama $8.4M
Virginia - $19.7M total: Romney $13.4M, Obama $6.3M
Pennsylvania - $13.7M total: Romney $10.8M, Obama $2.9M
Wisconsin - $10.8M total: Romney $7.8M, Obama $3M
Iowa - $9.8M total: Romney $6.7M, Obama $3M
Colorado - $8.9M total: Romney $5.5M, Obama $3.3M
Nevada - $8.5M total: Romney $5.6M, Obama $2.9M
New Hampshire - $7.0M total: Romney $4.7M, Obama $2.3M
Michigan - $5.7M total: Romney $5.2M, Obama $500k
Minnesota - $2.7M total: Romney $2.1M, Obama $550k
North Carolina - $3.4M total: Romney $1.9M, Obama $1.4M
New Mexico - $225k total: Romney $225k (ROF), Obama $0
Maine (Bangor) - $70k total: Romney $70k (ROF), Obama $0
 
I'm not buying most who call themselves "independent" actually being so, but that's a side issue. The national polls are less useful than the state polls because of the electoral math. Further, that question is a subset of the greater question: who are you voting for, and Obama is leading the polls in that area. Seems a slender thread to cling to in the face of all the polling evidence to the contrary.

The math still kills Romney. PA and NV aren't realistic for him (check out the last two months of polling in NV -- it's not really in doubt at this point). That means, in sum, Obama simply has to protect leads in WI and OH to win. If I were him, I'd never leave those two states. That's why he'll be there every day.
 
dirtydeac said:
List of on-air advertising buys in major swing states over the last few days...

Ohio - $30M total: Romney $18.4M, Obama $11.4M
Florida - $22M total: Romney $13.7M, Obama $8.4M
Virginia - $19.7M total: Romney $13.4M, Obama $6.3M
Pennsylvania - $13.7M total: Romney $10.8M, Obama $2.9M
Wisconsin - $10.8M total: Romney $7.8M, Obama $3M
Iowa - $9.8M total: Romney $6.7M, Obama $3M
Colorado - $8.9M total: Romney $5.5M, Obama $3.3M
Nevada - $8.5M total: Romney $5.6M, Obama $2.9M
New Hampshire - $7.0M total: Romney $4.7M, Obama $2.3M
Michigan - $5.7M total: Romney $5.2M, Obama $500k
Minnesota - $2.7M total: Romney $2.1M, Obama $550k
North Carolina - $3.4M total: Romney $1.9M, Obama $1.4M
New Mexico - $225k total: Romney $225k (ROF), Obama $0
Maine (Bangor) - $70k total: Romney $70k (ROF), Obama $0
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Good for the economy. But do you think more commercials will move the needle at this point? I'm not buying it. Also, can you link a source? This is interesting info.

Again, I feel for the states at the top of that list. Poor bastards.
 
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