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Rove calls it for Romney

ArlingtonDeac said:
Good for the economy. But do you think more commercials will move the needle at this point? I'm not buying it. Also, can you link a source? This is interesting info.

Again, I feel for the states at the top of that list. Poor bastards.
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I just thought it was interesting seeing where the money was being spent. http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2012/11/01/romney_not_a_fan_of_obamas_secretary_of_business_proposal

They got their info from NBC. Their link is in the article.
 
Wrangor said:
And there we have the deflection even before the result.

If you give someone a 1 in 5 chance of winning, and they win that means you seriously underestimated their chances of winning. If you give someone a 40% chance of winning and they win that means nothing, because you almost gave them a coin flip chance to win. 20% is basically saying the guy has no chance.
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Please play poker with me.
 
SkinsNDeacs said:
What does way off mean? By the nature of his model he could never really be way off. If Romney happens to win he could always say "The 20% (or whatever) came through".

Right now he has Obama at +300 EV. I will take that line...anyone want a bet?
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Skins, do you think Silver is predicting that Obama will get 303.4 EVs?
 
DirkTheDeac said:
Well, Carter supporters in the beltway probably thought he had it in the bag. He had a big lead in the polls with the "Silvers" of the day. But I must say polling is so much more scientific today today that you are right. Sadly, I already cast my vote otherwise I wouldn't bother.
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No, he didn't, which has been demonstrated, but when you need to hold on to something, facts be dammed!!!!!
 
You know, he will publish a final call map on Monday.
 
Politico via Morning Joe is reporting while Romney and his SuperPACs are spending more, Obama is running more ads because they spent their money and ad buy smarter.
 
PhDeac said:
Skins, do you think Silver is predicting that Obama will get 303.4 EVs?
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I don't follow his site that closely but I thought that is what I saw...am I wrong? Of course there is no such think as a .4 EV but I thought it was a sort of over/under number.
 
Hello said:
http://updates.deadspin.com/post/34780905169/nate-silvers-braying-idiot-detractors-show-that-being

Deadspin makes a better case for Silver than anyone here. They also accurately describe what his data and percentages actually mean
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That last paragraph.... damn. When did Deadspin start doing actual writing? I thought their piece on the NHL focus group was also really well done.

I do think it is interesting how the current backlash against Silver mirrors the backlash against advanced baseball stats. Plus is has caused a lot of the baseball writers I like to weigh in on the issue.
 
avalon said:
That last paragraph.... damn. When did Deadspin start doing actual writing? I thought their piece on the NHL focus group was also really well done.

I do think it is interesting how the current backlash against Silver mirrors the backlash against advanced baseball stats. Plus is has caused a lot of the baseball writers I like to weigh in on the issue.
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And we see exactly how that turned out. Geek heads like the Oakland A's are sucking it up at the bottom of the division every year while super spenders like the Dodgers roll on to the playoffs. Silver = Moneyball = Fail
 
Wrangor said:
And we see exactly how that turned out. Geek heads like the Oakland A's are sucking it up at the bottom of the division every year while super spenders like the Dodgers roll on to the playoffs. Silver = Moneyball = Fail
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Moneyball and Nate Silver are both about stats, but otherwise, they're completely different.
 
Wrangor said:
And we see exactly how that turned out. Geek heads like the Oakland A's are sucking it up at the bottom of the division every year while super spenders like the Dodgers roll on to the playoffs. Silver = Moneyball = Fail
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Someone didn't watch baseball this season.

Again, if you READ THE ARTICLE, it says that the difference between scouts and stats (in moneyball, which has nothing to do with silver's stats) was amped up for comedic and dramatic effect. No team wins it all without a little of both.
 
Rasmussen has the tracker tied at 48-48! Panic time has set in. Even the "unbiased" polls are settling out.
 
I do find it interesting that silver low-balled the GOP by 10 seats in the 2010 election.
 
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