St. Bonaventure Game Thread - Deacs win 77-62 off to 9-2 start

[wakedeac98]

Hypothetical dream scenerio: Wake is a 21 win team and on the NCAA bubble. Wellman illegitimately uses his position to bribe and deal with committee members to get Wake into the dance, however leaves a trail of evidence. Wake makes a nice run in the NCAA tournament. Eamonn Brennon pieces together the dirt and breaks the story in April. Wellman is forced to resign. Norwood Teague decides he's had enough of the cold weather and comes to the Triad. He calls Shaka and gets a multi year deal done for around 3 million per. So much win everywhere.

 

[DeaconBrews]

Damn BKF, you old!

Seriously though, that's cool.

 

[Why the Deac Not]

Per rpiforecast, a regular season record of 21-10 would have us with an RPI of 53 going into the ACC tournament. Right on the bubble but probably needing one tourney win to get a bid.

Perhaps now would be a good time to start taking a survey of folks who will take the over on 20 wins and who will take the under. Personally, even if they beat Xavier on the road, I'm guessing 19 wins is best case scenario for a still young team that hasn't really shown they can win on the road in the ACC. I'll say 11-2 and 8-10 in the ACC with a couple of road wins maybe. If they are better than I think, then 21-22 should be attainable and most of this board will have to eat crow. But I doubt it. I even fathom a possible upset of a very overrated Carolina squad at home before they then lose their first 3 or 4 road games. The opening of their conf sked is brutal with 5 of 7 on the road. Good luck with that Buzz!!

 

[Why the Deac Not]

Probably the same thing you did when we beat Carolina on January 30th, 1993.

Gosh, didn't expect a reference to that game on this thread. Oh the memories of sleeping in the Joel walk-up area the night before the noon tip. I was so drizzunk before showing up around midnight to sleep in a tent outside the arena's front door. I wanted first row for the game, but we ended up with 2nd row right behind the team's bench. It was incredible. And I'll always remember having a great vantage for a couple of Childress' fabled 3-pointers when he hit 6 in a row (6 of our 7 consecutive scores I believe) to bury Dean Smith's hopes of a win. What a great day that was not even spoiled by an epic hangover after the game!

 

[94Deac]

Gosh, didn't expect a reference to that game on this thread. Oh the memories of sleeping in the Joel walk-up area the night before the noon tip. I was so drizzunk before showing up around midnight to sleep in a tent outside the arena's front door. I wanted first row for the game, but we ended up with 2nd row right behind the team's bench. It was incredible. And I'll always remember having a great vantage for a couple of Childress' fabled 3-pointers when he hit 6 in a row (6 of our 7 consecutive scores I believe) to bury Dean Smith's hopes of a win. What a great day that was not even spoiled by an epic hangover after the game!

Ohhhh, man I wish I could go back in time.

 

[pourdeac]

I'll need one of the KenPom experts to decree it officially, but 21 wins with this schedule ain't getting us into the Big Dance

If you look at the RPI projection site below, 21 wins would give us a RPI of 53...and I assume that's just beating the 19 teams with the greatest odds of winning (ie not beating a team like Syracuse). That's probably on the bubble depending the nature of those 21 Ws......and of course the ultimate strength of the ACC which could change a little, and then there are ACCT considerations. An ACCT win on top of that would give us 22 wins.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Wake Forest.html

According to the same site, 6 of 15 ACC teams have similar OOC schedules..Pitt, Clemson, VT, GT, Miami and Wake. Ken Pom adds Syracuse, ND, NCSU to the list making it 9 of 15...or 60% of the teams. The schedule isn't really an anomaly.

 

[RacerDeac]

According to the same site, 6 of 15 ACC teams have similar OOC schedules..Pitt, Clemson, VT, GT, Miami and Wake. Ken Pom adds Syracuse, ND, NCSU to the list making it 9 of 15...or 60% of the teams. The schedule isn't really an anomaly.

Keep in mind, Kansas bumps out OOC schedule way up. That's a game we didn't have any part in choosing, or even know about IIRC, when we scheduled the rest of our OOC.

 

[Brendan207]

Almost every thread turns into a pissing contest. It's pretty pathetic how often things on the internet turn into back and forth arguments where nobody will ever win. I follow a few college and pro sports teams on Instagram and you get 50 year old men arguing with 14 year old girls about things they post for/against certain teams in the comments section of every picture. It's the nature of a message board / social media site etc etc. Pretty lame but true.

I understand if people don't want to support [Redacted], and even if they don't want to support the team because of [Redacted]. My point of view will always be that unless the players themselves are quitters I'm going to support them. They've been at Wake during some dark times and I'm sure it isn't easy to keep pushing forward. I really hope that the season culminates with some sort of postseason play for Travis. He's our only senior and could have easily abandoned Wake for a better program after his freshman year.

 

[RacerDeac]

Almost every thread turns into a pissing contest. It's pretty pathetic how often things on the internet turn into back and forth arguments where nobody will ever win. I follow a few college and pro sports teams on Instagram and you get 50 year old men arguing with 14 year old girls about things they post for/against certain teams in the comments section of every picture. It's the nature of a message board / social media site etc etc. Pretty lame but true.

Bashes pissing contest...

I understand if people don't want to support [Redacted], and even if they don't want to support the team because of [Redacted]. My point of view will always be that unless the players themselves are quitters I'm going to support them. They've been at Wake during some dark times and I'm sure it isn't easy to keep pushing forward. I really hope that the season culminates with some sort of postseason play for Travis. He's our only senior and could have easily abandoned Wake for a better program after his freshman year.

Adds his own pee to the pot...

 

[pourdeac]

So the bar has always been 10-11 wins with 3+ non cupcake wins against an average SOS of around 180.

This year he is 9-2 with 3 non cupcake wins (I'm being generous with non-cupcake, basically including any team that's within distance of top 100).

32 "non cupcake wins" over 10 years is ~3 on average (3.2) 10-11 wins. If we get to 10-3 we'll basically meet that criteria. We're basically doing what I've seen us do on average since I've been watching Wake basketball in 1982. How long it's taken Bz to get to this level is immaterial to Wake BEING at that level this year.

 

[Strickland33]

when Duke hired K it would have been close. He was at Army

Yeah - Dino Gaudio was like the mini-[Redacted] of the MAAC and Patriot Leagues when Ron hired him. Of course, unlike Buzz - he won games once he was HC.

 

[Why the Deac Not]

I understand if people don't want to support [Redacted], and even if they don't want to support the team because of [Redacted]. My point of view will always be that unless the players themselves are quitters I'm going to support them. They've been at Wake during some dark times and I'm sure it isn't easy to keep pushing forward. I really hope that the season culminates with some sort of postseason play for Travis. He's our only senior and could have easily abandoned Wake for a better program after his freshman year.

I think most can agree with the sentiment expressed here. I just think for many Bzz-doubters and haters, they have been so severely disappointed by previous results and the historically bad depths to which we've sunk that it's hard to get too excited for any degree of success until we are proving on a regular basis we can hang with the elites of the ACC like we've all become accustomed to seeing. So if you're slow to start believing again, it's very easy to maintain a hyper-critical view. Just like I love my Atlanta Falcons no matter what (and I want Mike Smith fired), but I'm realistic about what I want and expect for them going forward. For instance, it was terribly painful to see them win a meaningless game against Wash without really demonstrating any real progress from how poorly they've played all year. So if we're gonna miss out on a top 3 draft pick, at least show me you're getting better. But instead, they were lucky to beat the Skins who tried their best to hand us the game with 7 turnovers!

 

[Ayo]

Why are no students there? Because it's winter break, and no one is going to travel to watch this Wake team vs. St. Bonaventure.

 

[Demonbeck]

I think most can agree with the sentiment expressed here. I just think for many Bzz-doubters and haters, they have been so severely disappointed by previous results and the historically bad depths to which we've sunk that it's hard to get too excited for any degree of success until we are proving on a regular basis we can hang with the elites of the ACC like we've all become accustomed to seeing. So if you're slow to start believing again, it's very easy to maintain a hyper-critical view. Just like I love my Atlanta Falcons no matter what (and I want Mike Smith fired), but I'm realistic about what I want and expect for them going forward. For instance, it was terribly painful to see them win a meaningless game against Wash without really demonstrating any real progress from how poorly they've played all year. So if we're gonna miss out on a top 3 draft pick, at least show me you're getting better. But instead, they were lucky to beat the Skins who tried their best to hand us the game with 7 turnovers!

This is a discussion for another thread, but firing Mike Smith is an awful idea. Dimitroff and injuries are the reasons the Falcons have sucked this year. We have no offensive line and no pass rush, and a legitimate GM would have fixed that in the offseason.

 

[RacerDeac]

32 "non cupcake wins" over 10 years is ~3 on average (3.2) 10-11 wins. If we get to 10-3 we'll basically meet that criteria. We're basically doing what I've seen us do on average since I've been watching Wake basketball in 1982. How long it's taken Bz to get to this level is immaterial to Wake BEING at that level this year.

1) The level of cupcakes Bz has feasted on is far sweeter than those in previous years. This is an old image, but this year is worse than the previous 3 under Bzz:

If you want more evidence, check out Skips 3-13/17-17 team below that still got an NIT invite. There's no way this team, with it's schedule, would go to the NIT with that sort of winning percentage because there just wouldn't be any quality wins.

2) The amount of time it takes to get here is absolutely critical. The losses to teams with much less talent over the 3 years leading up to now indicate that Bzz does not get the most out of his team. That means that whatever we do this season, we probably could have done much better under better leadership.

3) Unless this team seriously exceeds the expectations of even some of the most sunshine types, it is nothing like the average teams since 1982. Sorry, that's just silly.

1981–82	Carl Tacy	21–9	9–5	3rd	NCAA Second Round
1982–83	Carl Tacy	20–12	7–7	5th	NIT Semifinals
1983–84	Carl Tacy	23–9	7–7	T-3rd	NCAA Regional Final
1984–85	Carl Tacy	15–14	5–9	T-6th	NIT First Round
1985–86	Bob Staak	8–21	0–14	8th
1986–87	Bob Staak	14–15	2–12	7th
1987–88	Bob Staak	10–18	3–11	8th
1988–89	Bob Staak	13–15	3–11	7th
1989–90	Dave Odom	12–16	3–11	8th
1990–91	Dave Odom	19–11	8–6	T-3rd	NCAA Second Round
1991–92	Dave Odom	17–12	7–9	6th	NCAA First Round
1992–93	Dave Odom	21–9	10–6	T-3rd	NCAA Regional Semifinals
1993–94	Dave Odom	21–12	9–7	3rd	NCAA Second Round
1994–95	Dave Odom	26–6	12–4	1st	NCAA Regional Semifinals
1995–96	Dave Odom	26–6	12–4	2nd	NCAA Regional Final
1996–97	Dave Odom	24–7	11–5	T-2nd	NCAA Second Round
1997–98	Dave Odom	16–14	7–9	T-4th	NIT Second Round
1998–99	Dave Odom	17–14	7–9	4th	NIT Second Round
1999–00	Dave Odom	22–14	7–9	5th	NIT Champions
2000–01	Dave Odom	19–11	8–8	T-5th	NCAA First Round
2001–02	Skip Prosser	21–13	9–7	T-3rd	NCAA Second Round
2002–03	Skip Prosser	25–6	13–3	1st	NCAA Second Round
2003–04	Skip Prosser	21–10	9–7	T-3rd	NCAA Regional Semifinals
2004–05	Skip Prosser	27–6	13–3	2nd	NCAA Second Round
2005–06	Skip Prosser	17–17	3–13	12th	NIT First Round
2006–07	Skip Prosser	15–16	5–11	T-10th
2007–08	Dino Gaudio	17–13	7–9	T-7th
2008–09	Dino Gaudio	24–7	11–5	T-2nd	NCAA First Round
2009–10	Dino Gaudio	20–11	9–7	T-5th	NCAA Second Round
2010–11	Jeff [Redacted]	8–24	1–15	12th
2011–12	Jeff [Redacted]	13–18	4–12	T-12th
2012–13	Jeff [Redacted]	13–18	6–12	T-9th

 

[stevewhite14]

This is a discussion for another thread, but firing Mike Smith is an awful idea. Dimitroff and injuries are the reasons the Falcons have sucked this year. We have no offensive line and no pass rush, and a legitimate GM would have fixed that in the offseason.

Mike Smith is very much like John Fox IMO. Very similar coaches that win games for a while and then go kindof stale.

 

[wake20]

I randomly went back to CP3's soph year to show that the Bonnies were a fine OOC opponent for us. I checked out our OOC schedule 04-05 and then looked up opponent's final kenpom rankings in 2005. Here's how it looks:

George Washington: 40
@Virginia Commonwealth: 131
Yale: 201
@Providence: 56
@Arizona: 11
@Illinois: 1
Richmond: 164
@Temple: 89
Elon: 282
Texas: 34
@New Mexico: 31
North Carolina A&T: 321
Longwood: 328

2004-2005: 1-25: 2, 26-50: 3, 51-100: 2, 101-200: 2, 201+: 4
2013-2014: 1-25: 1, 26-50: 2, 51-100: 1, 101-200: 3, 201+: 6

 

[dartsndeacs]

am I the only one who absolutely hates the word kenpom?

 

[Wakeforest22890]

Also we got the Providence, Arizona, and Illinois games as part of the NIT and then the ACC-Big 10 Challenge.

 

[pourdeac]

1) The level of cupcakes Bz has feasted on is far sweeter than those in previous years. This is an old image, but this year is worse than the previous 3 under Bzz:

Seriously?? The ACC used to have maybe 1 team outside the top 100 in KenPom/RPI, in most years none. In 2010 there were none. 2011 there were 2. In 2012 there were 4 and in 2013 there were 5 (3 this year right now). So a lot of the increases on that chart the last 2 years are due to ACC teams being worse in those ratings...right as the ACC schedule expanded with fewer OOC games and more conference games.

That means in most of the pre-Bz years, the teams outside the top 100 on that chart were basically from the OOC schedule, so to be fair look at the OOC games this year. We will have played 13 OOC games this year. 10 of them are currently outside the top-100 in KenPom, and St.Bonaventure was but just got knocked out due to the loss so arguably 9-10 OOC teams will outside the top 100 (at the end of the season) which is basically what we saw in 5 of 10 years on that chart.

I have no doubt we scheduled an easier schedule this year because that's what most coaches do with a young, inexperienced team like we have. It's not some extraordinarily easy schedule and 40-60% of the other ACC teams are doing roughly the same thing.

It's a non-issue. You're looking for an excuse for why Bz must suck but is winning.