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St. Bonaventure Game Thread - Deacs win 77-62 off to 9-2 start

It's a non-issue. You're looking for an excuse for why Bz must suck but is winning.

Two things:

1) those rankings as based on end-of-season kenpom rankings, not pre-season and not after 11 games. We haven't played anybody in the ACC yet, either, so that has no bearing on our OCC, which is pretty damn pitiful by comparison to any year documented on kenpom or the like.

2) The excuse for why Buzz must suck but is winning is the fact that our wins this year include:

-Richmond (#60)
-St. Bonnie (#104)
-USC (#118)
-Colgate (#172)
-VMI (#261)
-Jacksonville (#297)
-Tulane (#303)
-The Citadel (#343)
-Presbyterian (#346)

You can say that our high profile wins in past years came via tournaments that we didn't schedule. Fine. That's perfectly legit. But, the only win that we got out of that arrangement this year was against #118 USC. It just doesn't help your case.
 
Two things:

1) those rankings as based on end-of-season kenpom rankings, not pre-season and not after 11 games. We haven't played anybody in the ACC yet, either, so that has no bearing on our OCC, which is pretty damn pitiful by comparison to any year documented on kenpom or the like.

2) The excuse for why Buzz must suck but is winning is the fact that our wins this year include:
I'm not sure I understand. Tennesee, Xavier, and Kansas are going to end up top 100 so regardless of whether it's now or at the end of the season 10/13 of the OOC teams will be top 100...and possibly St.Bona.

Under Prosser and Dino we had a lot of 200+ OOC SOSs (roughly half and it actually goes back to Odom). How do you think we got there? By scheduling lots of top 100 teams? I will agree that we scheduled more 300+ teams this year instead of just 200+ teams compared to prior years with weak SOSs..again...half the time. They're ALL cupcakes. Do you really think it way harder to have scheduled 200+ teams vs 300+ teams? That's the difference between those seasons. Seems trivial....and for all the talk of lowered expectations...thinking it would be much harder to play 200+ ranked teams is definitely lowered expectations. I question if those rankings at that end of the spectrum even make sense.
 
I'm not sure I understand. Tennesee, Xavier, and Kansas are going to end up top 100 so regardless of whether it's now or at the end of the season 10/13 of the OOC teams will be top 100...and possibly St.Bona.

Under Prosser and Dino we had a lot of 200+ OOC SOSs (roughly half and it actually goes back to Odom). How do you think we got there? By scheduling lots of top 100 teams? I will agree that we scheduled more 300+ teams this year instead of just 200+ teams compared to prior years with weak SOSs..again...half the time. They're ALL cupcakes. Do you really think it way harder to have scheduled 200+ teams vs 300+ teams? That's the difference between those seasons. Seems trivial....and for all the talk of lowered expectations...thinking it would be much harder to play 200+ ranked teams is definitely lowered expectations. I question if those rankings at that end of the spectrum even make sense.

Read the part of your post that I originally quoted. The reason why people are not satisfied with Buzz's record is that we haven't really beaten anybody. Relative to past OOC schedules, ours both falls well below average (currently 321 or something on kenpom) and we're losing games against the competition on it (#8 KU and #33 Tennessee). I don't know what you're talking about, but there's a huge difference between 321 and 200 (and, as you mentioned but glossed over, over half of our OOC's over that stretch were better than 200).

I'm done with this conversation, though. It's not that difficult to understand that Buzz is winning, but hasn't really been tested and he's been tested far less than past coaches, so comparisons are kind of ridiculous. Let's reopen this conversation after the stretch where we play Xavier (#49), UNC (#10), UVA (#24), and Pitt (#12) back-to-back.

At the end of the day, all that matters is whether we're winning basketball games against good teams. Thus far this season, we've done it once (Richmond) and failed twice (Tenn and KU). This schedule conversation is just ridiculous hairsplitting in the scheme of things...

Just win, Buzzy.
 
Read the part of your post that I originally quoted. The reason why people are not satisfied with Buzz's record is that we haven't really beaten anybody. Relative to past OOC schedules, ours both falls well below average (currently 321 or something on kenpom) and we're losing games against the competition on it (#8 KU and #33 Tennessee). I don't know what you're talking about, but there's a huge difference between 321 and 200 (and, as you mentioned but glossed over, over half of our OOC's over that stretch were better than 200).

I'm done with this conversation, though. It's not that difficult to understand that Buzz is winning, but hasn't really been tested and he's been tested far less than past coaches, so comparisons are kind of ridiculous.
So you are of the opinion that we should beat everyone OOC greater than a ranking of 100 (using whatever scale) but think there is a huge difference between a OOC SOS of 224 (2003), 250 (2006), 264 (2007), 303 (2008), 265 (2009) and our current OOC SOS of 322???? Seriously??? Yea, I think that's ridiculous hairsplitting about the differences between those prior years (5 of the prior 8) and this year.

It's easy to understand why people question winning because of Bz's prior years....he hasn't proven himself with his players over an entire season. No duh. But that doesn't mean the schedule this year is some how way out of whack compared to Wake's past which seems to be what you and others are saying. This team will be tested PLENTY at a high level during the longer ACC schedule and everyone knows it. That's probably why so many ACC teams have weak OOC SOSs. When going from 16 to 18 conference games, the 2 additional ACC-level games likely caused teams to schedule 2 fewer comparable OOC games to balance it out. Plus, coaches in the situation we're in almost always schedule weaker schedules. I wouldn't expect something different.

I know you've been one of the BuzzOut flag bearers, but there are plenty of real issues to bash the guy about...like the constant classwork excuse (which I suspect is what causes the team to flame on the road). I don't get the point of bashing his successes, even if small compared to historicals. We've obviously improved off the bottom of this transition (I mostly blame Wellman for the first 2 years) and this will all play out. Either Bz gets to the post-season this year or not. If not, he'll be gone...IMO.
 
The difference between an OOC SOS of 224 and one of 324 is the difference between playing a bunch of teams who might beat you 2 out of every 10 times instead of 1 out of 10 times. So it's basically the difference between one loss a year. Just food for thought.
 
So you are of the opinion that we should beat everyone OOC greater than a ranking of 100 (using whatever scale) but think there is a huge difference between a OOC SOS of 224 (2003), 250 (2006), 264 (2007), 303 (2008), 265 (2009) and our current OOC SOS of 322???? Seriously??? Yea, I think that's ridiculous hairsplitting about the differences between those prior years (5 of the prior 8) and this year.

Seriously, last time. Buzz's four OOC schedules happened consecutively, and when compared to four year stretches of past coaches (or even in comparison to milquetoast Dino's three year-run of OOCs) they really just look, unequivocally pitiful. Spin aside, you're cherry picking years when it comes to Skip. Skip didn't have pitiful schedules in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006. He had two bad OOCs in that five year stretch. And he did pretty damn well with each of those schedules. In Buzz's four year run, he's played bad schedules and hasn't taken care of business/done well by almost any metric. That is, was, and will always be the point of contention around his scheduling.

And yeah, there's a huge difference between SOS <250 and 322. Think about it rationally: the average opponent ranking of SOS 250=125, the average for 322 is 161. Obviously that's suspect methodology, but it's safe to say that the opponents in the former schedule are better, in aggregate, than the opponents in the latter.

I know you've been one of the BuzzOut flag bearers, but there are plenty of real issues to bash the guy about...like the constant classwork excuse (which I suspect is what causes the team to flame on the road). I don't get the point of bashing his successes, even if small compared to historicals. We've obviously improved off the bottom of this transition (I mostly blame Wellman for the first 2 years) and this will all play out. Either Bz gets to the post-season this year or not. If not, he'll be gone...IMO.

DCDeac posts the same kind of stuff about me, but am I really being that unfair to Buzz? I'm just a fan who watches a lot of ball, and who is just really frustrated at the mess that we throw on the floor every night. We haven't finished a season consistently? Hell, we haven't finished more than a half consistently since Buzz got here! That's the first step. You're welcome to find my posts in game threads and the like, but I really think that I've given him credit when credit is due (i.e. last night's defensive adjustment). Since I think he's a really bad coach, there's just not a lot of credit to give.

His success thus far this year is the fact that Codi and Cav look light year's better and that we beat KP #60 Richmond. We can split hairs about the division of coaching labor and the like (and I personally think Chill gets credit for Codi and Buzz for Cav, but that's beside the point), but that's that. What other successes am I not giving Buzz credit for?
 
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I randomly went back to CP3's soph year to show that the Bonnies were a fine OOC opponent for us. I checked out our OOC schedule 04-05 and then looked up opponent's final kenpom rankings in 2005. Here's how it looks:

George Washington: 40
@Virginia Commonwealth: 131
Yale: 201
@Providence: 56
@Arizona: 11
@Illinois: 1
Richmond: 164
@Temple: 89
Elon: 282
Texas: 34
@New Mexico: 31
North Carolina A&T: 321
Longwood: 328

2004-2005: 1-25: 2, 26-50: 3, 51-100: 2, 101-200: 2, 201+: 4
2013-2014: 1-25: 1, 26-50: 2, 51-100: 1, 101-200: 3, 201+: 6

Semantics only, but Providence and Arizona were neutral court games (MSG). Also could have sworn that VCU was at home as part of the preliminary rounds of the PNIT.

Either way, your point stands. We had some great OOC opponents under Skip.
 
I just tried to copy and paste, so you're prob right. If you take out preseason tournaments, though, we're left with:

2013-2014: 1-25: 0, 26-50: 0, 51-100: 2, 101-200: 2, 201+: 5

Also, Xavier is the only true road game OOC this year. In the year I mentioned (excluding ACC/Big10 Challenge), we played true road games @ Temple, @ New Mexico, and @ Cincy (I actually forgot to include them in my original post since it was a random late January game). That's impressive.
 
For the stats folks out there:

Madison, Overton, Tree, Moto, Dre have used 30.6% of Wake's possessions this year. The raw (not schedule adjusted) efficiency of those 31% of our possessions has been 91. That's beyond horrible against our schedule. So horrible I can barely think of a word.

CMM, Coron, Travis, Devin, Cav have used 68.7% of Wake's possessions this year with a raw efficiency on those possessions at 116.

As the rotation tightens and our efficient players get more possessions - as we have already seen happen - we should get a very nice boost to our overall offensive efficiency.
 
Semantics only, but Providence and Arizona were neutral court games (MSG). Also could have sworn that VCU was at home as part of the preliminary rounds of the PNIT.

Either way, your point stands. We had some great OOC opponents under Skip.

You're correct. Wake played GW in the first round of the Preseason NIT and VCU in the second, both at the Joel. Look, the OOC schedule isn't great this year, but we've laid one egg so far. I know people will cry about how State beat Tennessee on the road last night, but we all know the transitive property doesn't apply in college basketball. Tennessee played as poorly against State as they played well against us. Xavier lost all three games in the Bahamas, then blew out Cincinnati who just beat previously undefeated Pittsburgh. Shit happens.
 
You're correct. Wake played GW in the first round of the Preseason NIT and VCU in the second, both at the Joel. Look, the OOC schedule isn't great this year, but we've laid one egg so far. I know people will cry about how State beat Tennessee on the road last night, but we all know the transitive property doesn't apply in college basketball. Tennessee played as poorly against State as they played well against us. Xavier lost all three games in the Bahamas, then blew out Cincinnati who just beat previously undefeated Pittsburgh. Shit happens but Bzz still sucks.

FIFY
 
For the stats folks out there:

Madison, Overton, Tree, Moto, Dre have used 30.6% of Wake's possessions this year. The raw (not schedule adjusted) efficiency of those 31% of our possessions has been 91. That's beyond horrible against our schedule. So horrible I can barely think of a word.

CMM, Coron, Travis, Devin, Cav have used 68.7% of Wake's possessions this year with a raw efficiency on those possessions at 116.

As the rotation tightens and our efficient players get more possessions - as we have already seen happen - we should get a very nice boost to our overall offensive efficiency.
Thanks for the stats. Yes, our bench players are beyond limited offensively. We have no depth whatsoever really headed into the conference schedule. If one of our key guys gets in foul trouble, we are screwed.
 
Had time on my hands and thought pourdeac's statement that our noncon performance was par for the course was ridiculous so I ran some numbers.

I gave each OOC team we have played since 2000 a point value based on what ranking bracket they were in (1-25: 3 points, 26-50: 2 points, 51-75:1 point, 75-100: 0 points, 100-200: -1 points, 200-300: -2 points, 300+: -3 points)

A win bumped the value up a point, a loss bumped the value down a point. I based that roughly on the idea that you shouldn't really get credit for beating teams outside the top 100 and should actually lose points for playing awful teams outside the top 200 even if you win. You also shouldn't lose points for a top 75 loss and you should get credit for playing top 50 teams, even if you lose.)

Here are the point values for our non-conference schedules the 10 years prior to Bz and for Buzz's 4 seasons.

00-01: 10
01-02: 14
02-03: 4
03-04: 9
04-05: 17
05-06: -1
06-07: -1
07-08: -7
08-09: 1
09-10: -1

Avg: 4.5 Skip's teams had much better OOC schedules than Dino's.

10-11: -17
11-12: -11
12-13: -9
13-14: -4 ( winning out would leave us at -4 while beating UNC-G and losing to X would leave us at -6)


We could win out and still be 2 top 25 wins below our 10 year average prior to Buzz.

*I used Basketball-Reference rankings
 
^I like this metric. We're gonna end up playing four, maybe five OOC games against postseason caliber teams (depending how you feel about St. Bonaventure). Not good, but certainly better than any other Bzz season.
 
^I like this metric. We're gonna end up playing four, maybe five OOC games against postseason caliber teams (depending how you feel about St. Bonaventure). Not good, but certainly better than any other Bzz season.

I think it verifies what a lot of people have been saying. If we beat UNC-G and lose to Xavier we are probably looking at a slightly worse version of 07-08. If we manage to beat Xavier we have a chance to be slightly better than the 07-08 team. That team won 17 games and missed the postseason entirely.

That's unacceptable for year 4
 
I think it verifies what a lot of people have been saying. If we beat UNC-G and lose to Xavier we are probably looking at a slightly worse version of 07-08. If we manage to beat Xavier we have a chance to be slightly better than the 07-08 team. That team won 17 games and missed the postseason entirely.

That's unacceptable for year 4

Agreed. Xavier will be revealing about the progression of this team since it's the first true road game and against a legitimate opponent at that.
 
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