Steve Forbes credibility watch

[wsc8521s]

I appreciate you looking that up. Kenpom only goes back to 2002 - is that UVA team from 2002, not 2000? That's a pretty small list for ~20 years of teams.

Do you have quick access to how many teams ranked 5th or better in the ACC didn't make the tourney prior to 2019?

KP goes back to '99.

Every team 2013 and earlier finished at least tied for fourth. And yes, we did finish in fifth place by virtue of tiebreakers, but we were 11-9 and only two games better than the 10th place team. These things matter -- if we'd won just two more games we would have been sitting so much prettier

 

[Rafi]

Do you have quick access to how many teams ranked 5th or better in the ACC didn't make the tourney prior to 2019?

I looked it up. Since expanding to 15 teams in 2014, the top 5 ACC teams made the tourney every year up until 2022. Since then, multiple top 5 teams have not made the tourney (us, twice).

 

[Haros]

Good point. Are those kenpom rankings? I wonder how much the bottom few teams are dragging the league ranking down? Because the NCAA tourney performances sure haven't worsened.

Yes to KP rankings. The bottom is part of the problem. A game against a last place team pre-[Redacted] was usually still a top 100 opponent. Sort of what the Big 12 is today.

Expansion is part of why. Just more major conference teams means some by necessity move further down the rankings.

The ACC bottom teams becoming less attractive landing spots part of it too. The SEC in particular seems to have picked up the slack from historical levels, and I can’t help but think deeper pockets from football revenue has spilled over to getting their pick of basketball coaches — where a Nate Oats may have ended up in the ACC in the past.

 

[scooter84]

As is often true - both things can be true. The impression of the ACC as a weak conference has really hurt the ability of borderline teams from the ACC to make the tourney. It has hurt us and other teams, clearly. It has made it imperative that you finish higher in the conference and perform better in the non-conference.
But, we also killed our own chances by losing games we should have won and, in some cases, were in position to win.

 

[wsc8521s]

Strength of the bottom of your league means a lot. It's no coincidence the Big East only got three teams this year in a year where Gtown and Depaul were both terrible

 

[Rafi]

I understand that the ACC perception is bad and this has hurt us. But let’s not lose sight of the narrative.

Because to me, injuries, player eligibility, reffing… it all adds up to excuses. We had our chances to make the tournament and just failed spectacularly. Our road self destructions were so bad that I just don’t think you can chalk this year’s NCAA denial up to poor conference perception.

And based on how we finished our season and how unsteady we were on the road, who knows how we would have performed had we been invited.

Forbes has been given enough time to show his strengths and weaknesses that his record stands or falls on its own merits and not on outside circumstances. And that record so far is 0 tourney appearances.

That's my point. Forbe's team rank better than Dino's, but Dino made the tourney 2 out of 3 years because the ACC had a better perception.

I completely get your point - put up or shut up regarding the NCAAs - and that's a valid argument. My argument is that Forbe's teams are better than Dino's, but Forbes hasn't been in the tourney because different things matter now (like the quad system, which is stupid). Therefore, I wouldn't make hiring/firing decisions simply on making/not making the NCAAs. That's how Manning got extra years. I would look at all factors, and most importantly the big picture of if the program is moving in the right direction.

 

[Shake]

If it’s moving in the right direction how long do you think it will take to get there. College basketball is pretty simple…make the dance good season don’t make the dance and not so good season.

 

[wsc8521s]

Before the quad system there were RPI top 50 wins. Beating quality teams has always been highly valued -- unfortunately it's something we've sucked at for quite a while

 

[Rafi]

If it’s moving in the right direction how long do you think it will take to get there. College basketball is pretty simple…make the dance good season don’t make the dance and not so good season.

I think we'll make the tournament next year and then be a solid tournament team for years to come.*

* I reserve the right to change this opinion regarding next year based on who stays and who we bring in.

 

[Rafi]

I understand that the ACC perception is bad and this has hurt us. But let’s not lose sight of the narrative.

Because to me, injuries, player eligibility, reffing… it all adds up to excuses. We had our chances to make the tournament and just failed spectacularly. Our road self destructions were so bad that I just don’t think you can chalk this year’s NCAA denial up to poor conference perception.

I will add that I completely agree with this part. Those are all excuses and issues that every team faces. Houston has had several starters miss time this year and they are #1/2 in the country.

 

[daaberry]

And coming from the “terrible” PAC-12 which only had 3 qualifiers, yet have a 6-2 record with 2 teams in Sweet 16.

They had 4 teams in tournament and only Arizona has advanced to the Sweet 16.

 

[TheReff]

They had 4 teams in tournament and only Arizona has advanced to the Sweet 16.

True that, forgot about Wazu. Finished 6-3 with only Arizona to Sweet 16 but all 4 to second round.

 

[PaddyWF]

Yes to KP rankings. The bottom is part of the problem. A game against a last place team pre-[Redacted] was usually still a top 100 opponent. Sort of what the Big 12 is today.

Expansion is part of why. Just more major conference teams means some by necessity move further down the rankings.

The ACC bottom teams becoming less attractive landing spots part of it too. The SEC in particular seems to have picked up the slack from historical levels, and I can’t help but think deeper pockets from football revenue has spilled over to getting their pick of basketball coaches — where a Nate Oats may have ended up in the ACC in the past.

The coaching strength is a big one. ACC lost Pitino, K, Roy, Buzz Williams, Boeheim, Brey, Dixon, Gottfried, Skinner, Hewitt over the last decade+.

Are any of their replacements upgrades? The two big coaching improvements were Bennett and Larranga. You could probably put Forbes right behind that in pure W/L.

 

[wsc8521s]

Also Leonard Hamilton has really fallen off

 

[ProbationDeac]

I understand that the ACC perception is bad and this has hurt us. But let’s not lose sight of the narrative.

Because to me, injuries, player eligibility, reffing… it all adds up to excuses. We had our chances to make the tournament and just failed spectacularly. Our road self destructions were so bad that I just don’t think you can chalk this year’s NCAA denial up to poor conference perception.

And based on how we finished our season and how unsteady we were on the road, who knows how we would have performed had we been invited.

Forbes has been given enough time to show his strengths and weaknesses that his record stands or falls on its own merits and not on outside circumstances. And that record so far is 0 tourney appearances.

Well said!

 

[ChrisTheDeacm89]

He's getting two more years regardless. We'll see how things are and John Currie will reevaluate in 2025-2026 if need be.

Lot's of folks thought Kevin Keatts was finished at NC State two weeks ago. Now they're in the Sweet Sixteen.

No point in troubling yourself over things that you can't do anything about.

 

[WindyCityDeac]

He's getting two more years regardless. We'll see how things are and John Currie will reevaluate in 2025-2026 if need be.

Lot's of folks thought Kevin Keatts was finished at NC State two weeks ago. Now they're in the Sweet Sixteen.

No point in troubling yourself over things that you can't do anything about.

But we CAN do something about it

 

[ChrisTheDeacm89]

But we CAN do something about it

Sure. You can support the kids and team for the next two years. Or not.

Unless you're a major donor (or wish to become one), John Currie, or Susan Wente, there's not a whole lot that you can personally do about this right now, aside from complaining about it here.

 

[WindyCityDeac]

Sure. You can support the kids and team for the next two years. Or not.

Unless you're a major donor (or wish to become one), John Currie, or Susan Wente, there's not a whole lot that you can personally do about right now, aside from complaining about it here.

We can get a billboard

 

[ChrisTheDeacm89]

Yeah, let's not go down that road again.