The 2019 College Football Thread ! LSU NATIONAL CHAMPIONS ! CLEMSON SUCKS !!!!!!!!!!!

[Biff Tannen]

Missouri still needs to beat Arkansas to become bowl eligible but the NCAA hasn't ruled yet on their July appeal of the ridicuous bowl ban penalty. In September the NCAA said they were close to a decision.

“If the timing of the release of the decision is after the time that the penalty would have applied, it is applied at the next available opportunity,” NCAA spokesperson Emily James said in an email to The Star’s Souichi Terada. “Generally, an appealed penalty is stayed during the appeal process. If the penalty is affirmed by the committee, the stay is released when the decision is publicly announced.”

Then there’s this: This entire situation could boomerang into a double-down on injustice for MU.

Meaning if the appeal is denied after a bowl bid has been accepted or however long down the road, MU evidently would face its bowl ban in the 2020 season, compounding the initial penalty.

Anticipating the question ahead about the effective impact, Sterk interjected that it would in essence be “a two-year penalty.”

Which would make this even more of a farce.

 

[Liquid Karma]

What was Mizzou being penalized for again? I forgot...

 

[Biff Tannen]

I've kind of alluded to it (and so have others), but there appears to be a big drop-off after the Top 3 of LSU/OSU/Clemson.

Trying to figure out who the 4th team will be is a lot of fun, but I suspect we're just setting up for another #1 vs #4 ass-kicking in a game nobody will remember in a few months.

Of course, it is important for other reasons. The Pac12, in particular, needs to get a team into the playoff to show they are still relevant... A number of folks affiliated with that conference have been on the record as saying the lack of representation in the playoff really impacts recruiting negatively because all of the best players in the country want to go to schools that can get them there. Similarly, the Big12 would not want to get left out.

Like everyone else, I suspect we'll eventually go to 8 teams... I really like the drama that 4 creates, though.

Nobody is staying at home in California this year and if Clay Helton gets fired, that's why.

 

[ChrisL68]

Fine, but Georgia's out anyway with another loss and Alabama's favored over Auburn at at 66% on the FPI predictor. I'd give one-loss LSU the nod over Utah should Georgia win the SECCG. I'd also put OU in over Utah, given the chance, based on schedule.

Fpi doesn't factor in the fact that Alabama's starting quarterback is out

 

[Biff Tannen]

Which may be an issue.

 

[Pilchard]

A reasonable argument can be made for 12-1 Pac-12 champ Utah over 11-1 SEC West runner up Bama.

In that scenario, Bama's best win would be over Auburn, and Utah's best win would be over Oregon (the 10-3 Ducks would be ranked ahead of 8-4 Auburn; Oregon/Auburn played a game that was decided in the final seconds; fair to say the Auburn and Oregon are about equal). As weak as Utah's schedule was, their best OOC opponent (BYU) was better than Bama's: Duke or Southern Miss. Also, Bama won't play the weekend before the pairings are announced and teams generally get a bump who play and win over championship weekend. The decision may also comedown to how Bama and Utah look playing the final games. If Bama just dominates a solid Auburn team, while Utah squeaks by Oregon that may tip things in Bama's favor, or vice versa.

Also, the Big 12 Champ likely doesn't get there, but it depends on those teams look over the final games (again there is bias favoring teams that play during championship week). Finally, if tOSU wins at Michigan, but then loses a close game to Minnesota, it's possible 12-1 Minnesota and 12-1 tOSU both get in.

Bama put themselves in this situation by playing about the weakest OOC of any Power V team (particularly when their SEC East opponents were S. Carolina and TN). Play Penn State or USC or Notre Dame or any competent program as one of your OOC opponents and Bama's resume would look so much better. Bama would likely have crushed any of those teams, but Saban chose not to test themselves, like UGA, LSU, Michigan and most other teams with Natty hopes did. By making that choice, Bama could not finish 2nd in the SEC West and reasonably think that they would get in.

 

[JuiceCrewAllStar]

Can Bama and LSU match up in a 1v4 playoff game?

also, OSU better look out now that Gattis has fully installed his offense and taken over from Harbaugh

 

[Wakeforest22890]

The 2019 College Football Thread ! Substantive discussion ?

With Tua out I tend to believe that it’s just OSU who is the cream of the crop. From SP+ here are the projected lines on a neutral field for potential playoff matchups (this does not include Tua’s injury which I suspect accounts for 3 points or so?):

OSU: -3.5 v. Alabama, -6.5 v. LSU, -7.5 v. Clemson, -9.5 v. Georgia, -10.5 v. oklahoma

With Tua out LSU, Alabama, and Clemson are all basically tossups up against each other. I’d give a slight boost to Clemson’s numbers given how dominant they’ve been over the last few weeks. Regardless Ohio State should be at least a five point favorite over any of these teams.

 

[tigerswood]

Can Bama and LSU match up in a 1v4 playoff game?

also, OSU better look out now that Gattis has fully installed his offense and taken over from Harbaugh

In Michigan's last two game's, Gattis' fully installed offense has produced 83 yards on 34 carries against MSU and had 87 yards on 29 carries against Indiana. They're 77th in the country in rushing offense.

Patterson and the passing game have looked much better, but if they drop him back 40+ times against Chase Young and co., he won't make it through the game. Definitely expect them to hit some deep shots though, as Peoples-Jones, Collins, Black, and Bell are all NFL-quality receivers.

Early forecast calling for rain/snow/ugly weather. Usually I'd say this benefits the underdog, but it might be good for OSU here.

 

[Biff Tannen]

Patterson has thrown for over 365 yards in the past two games which are the best of his Michigan career and Michigan has won its past four games by an average of 30 points. Michigan is not a running team and they're #1 option at RB is not good.

Also, Patterson was -15 rushing in both of those games.

 

[tigerswood]

It's tough for one man to be so wrong as consistently as Biff. Michigan has 96 more rushing attempts than pass attempts through 11 games. They've desperately tried to be a running team. It worked great against ND in the rain, but has been pretty terrible for most of the year.

 

[thatguy2016]

too bad nobody, and I mean nobody, will be watching tOSU-UM since it conflicts with WF-CUSE

 

[Biff Tannen]

It's tough for one man to be so wrong as consistently as Biff. Michigan has 96 more rushing attempts than pass attempts through 11 games. They've desperately tried to be a running team. It worked great against ND in the rain, but has been pretty terrible for most of the year.

Right and it doesn't work. Now they're throwing it and Gattis' offense is working. Would you call Alabama the past two years a running team or a passing team ? I'd say passing, even though they could kill you with the run. And Michigan's won 9 games, a lot of them by wide margins. Of course you're going to run the ball when you've got a big lead. They've actually been very balanced the past three weeks after gashing ND running the ball the week before and running and throwing 41 times each against Penn State.

Michigan ran the ball 43 more times against ND than they threw it, so almost half of that differential of 96 plays came in one game.

 

[tigerswood]

Under Saban (even with Tua), Bama has always been a run-first team, IMHO. Harbaugh desperately wants Michigan to be a running team, but I do agree he's given Gattis more free reign lately.

 

[Biff Tannen]

Yeah, and Saban has moved away from the run game even more this year too because of personnel. Najee Harris is a great back, but Tua and his receivers were just better. I also think that Fr/So Hurts wasn't as equipped to throw the ball around the yard as he is now.

 

[Biff Tannen]

 

[Pilchard]

Even without Hooker, VT led 20-14 until ND scored with 29 seconds to go. ND had to covert two 4th downs on their game-winning drive. ND was really fortunate to win. VT is playing really good football right now (outscored GT and Pitt 73-0).

 

[tagsfan]

Even without Hooker, VT led 20-14 until ND scored with 29 seconds to go. ND had to covert two 4th downs on their game-winning drive. ND was really fortunate to win. VT is playing really good football right now (outscored GT and Pitt 73-0).

That's a great stat up against how badly MD has been outscored with former VT QB Josh Jackson. If Jackson had stayed, then Hooker would have stayed in the portal. Sometimes things have a way of working out, sometimes not. Completely non-football related - it was priceless back in the 70's hearing legendary Celtic's radio guy Johnny Most refer to backup center Henry Finkel as "The Happy Hooker."

 

[zqglass]

Fun fact: every team in the ACC Atlantic not named Clemson has been outscored in conference play. Probably not surprising due to them all taking 30-40 (49 for us) point losses to Clemson but still, interesting stat.

 

[bmoneydeac]

Even without Hooker, VT led 20-14 until ND scored with 29 seconds to go. ND had to covert two 4th downs on their game-winning drive. ND was really fortunate to win. VT is playing really good football right now (outscored GT and Pitt 73-0).

Couple of bogus, drive-extending penalties late in that game as well IIRC