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The Bubble

cville deac said:
Interesting call. They have been playing better the last 2 weeks. I do pay attention when you go out on a limb.

But are you going to root for the Dukes in the Dance?
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Arkansas State has a great chance tonight. Red Wolves have been playing well.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Yall were both wrong. VT is the best team in Virginia. Although I imagine Virginia would find some solace in making the tournament regardless
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It would be risible to see them make a nice ACC tourney run and make the dance and see UVA left out. Not sure who is best in VA. Richmond and VCU have had nice seasons. I'd say it's a 5 way tie between those 2, UVA, VT and JMU. And hats off to Longwood winning its tourney and getting to the dance. Jerome Kersey's alma mater doesn't exactly get a whole lot of attention.
 
Bracket Matrix 3/11 update has Indiana State as the last team in Dayton. Looks like the Matrix will bounce them by Selection Sunday.

Current Matrix updated with next games for teams listed:

Last 4 byes:
Mich St plays Thursday noon vs. Minnesota
TCU Wednesday, 3:00, Oklahoma
Miss St Thursday, 1:00 pm, LSU
Seton Hall Thursday, 2:30, St. John's

Last 4 in - Dayton:
Colorado Thursday, 11:30 pm, Utah/Arizona St
UVA Thursday, 9:30 pm, likely Clemson
St. John's Thursday, 2:30, Seton Hall
Indiana State season over

First 4 out:
New Mexico Wednesday, 7:00, Air Force
Villanova Wednesday, 9:00, DePaul
aTm Thursday, 7:00, Ole Miss
Iowa Thursday 5:30, tOSU

Next 4: (tough to find consensus here, as very few at this point have any "votes")
WF Wednesday, 2:30, ND/GT
Pitt Thursday, 2:30, better be WF
Providence Wednesday, 6:30, Georgetown
tOSU (lol, see above; one bracket has this pick)

JMU is in the Matrix as an auto-bid 12 seed. They are not getting an at-large bid.

Teams who are in, and who will cause a bid-stealer if they lose:
FAU is in the Matrix as a 9; FAU plays next Friday, 7:00 pm, North Texas/Tulane
Dayton is a 6 in the Matrix; Dayton plays Thursday, 7:30, Duquesne/Rhode Island/Saint Louis
 
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I want teams like Indiana State in the tournament. A lot of mid-majors have made runs from that 9-11 seed range.

But obviously not at our expense
 
We’re a solid 1-seed on an N.I.T. bracketology site. Hope we play our way off that line, but in a good way of course.
 
updated the post above to note each team's (including Dayton and FAU) next game
 
I don’t think Dayton or FAU win their tournaments. Dayton’s best win is a neutral court in November vs a borderline tourney team in St. John’s. Villanova may catch a break and not get Kolek when they play Marquette. They’re not a tournament team.
 
CreamyGoodness said:
Yep, that WVU game was the last time I've shed tears over the Deacs. My sister and I called each other and just cried on the phone.

Been pretty numb to the results since then
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kind of where I am/have been. . . its been a tough stretch of nearly 20 years.

. . . . friggin Kevin Pittsnogle :facepalm:
 
LexDeac said:
I don’t think Dayton or FAU win their tournaments. Dayton’s best win is a neutral court in November vs a borderline tourney team in St. John’s. Villanova may catch a break and not get Kolek when they play Marquette. They’re not a tournament team.
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“Field” is a better bet than either of them
 
DeacInVermont said:
From what I can tell, this is our Monday night rooting guide:

  • Towson over Charleston (for the metrics)
  • JMU over Arkansas State (keep the SunBelt a one bid league)
  • Samford over ETSU (probably not a big deal but I don't want the committee getting any funny ideas)
  • St. Mary's and Gonzaga (don't need the WCC getting a 3rd bid)
Nothing else jumps out to me.
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Let's try to put together a Tuesday rooting guide. Pretty much got what we needed out of last night.

  • GT over ND (2pm) if only because I think we match up better with GT.
  • WVU over The Fighin' Wes Millers (3pm). A Cincy run to the finals could bring them back to the bubble.
  • Louisville over NCSU (4:30pm). State losing on Tuesday of the tournament to the lowest seeded team would be hilarious AND if NCSU makes a run it could make it more likely they keep Keatts, so a win-win.
  • Lamar over McNeese (6:30pm). Wade's team is making a strong ass offer to the bubble in some brackets.

Looks to be about it for meaningful stuff today.
 
DeacInVermont said:
From what I can tell, this is our Monday night rooting guide:

  • Towson over Charleston (for the metrics) ❌
  • JMU over Arkansas State (keep the SunBelt a one bid league) ✅
  • Samford over ETSU (probably not a big deal but I don't want the committee getting any funny ideas) ✅
  • St. Mary's and Gonzaga (don't need the WCC getting a 3rd bid) ✅
Nothing else jumps out to me.
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DeacInVermont said:
Let's try to put together a Tuesday rooting guide. Pretty much got what we needed out of last night.

  • GT over ND (2pm) if only because I think we match up better with GT.
  • WVU over The Fighin' Wes Millers (3pm). A Cincy run to the finals could bring them back to the bubble.
  • Louisville over NCSU (4:30pm). State losing on Tuesday of the tournament to the lowest seeded team would be hilarious AND if NCSU makes a run it could make it more likely they keep Keatts, so a win-win.
  • Lamar over McNeese (6:30pm). Wade's team is making a strong ass offer to the bubble in some brackets.

Looks to be about it for meaningful stuff today.
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I'll take State over Louisville by 50. It would be nice if our games against State were Q1 and Q2 instead of Q2 and Q3.

Winner of this game plays Syracuse and our win against them is also right below the Q2 cutoff.

State is currently 80 in NET and Syracuse is 79. State is probably further out of the tournament so I'd probably root for them over Cuse as well (or a blowout either way).
 
Just curious, and likely may have already been discussed:
Of the 3 late consecutive losses to VT/ND/GT, is there one or more of the 3 that if we had only won that particular game but lost the other two, we would probably be currently "last 4 in"?
 
DeacInVermont said:
Let's try to put together a Tuesday rooting guide. Pretty much got what we needed out of last night.

  • GT over ND (2pm) if only because I think we match up better with GT.
  • WVU over The Fighin' Wes Millers (3pm). A Cincy run to the finals could bring them back to the bubble.
  • Louisville over NCSU (4:30pm). State losing on Tuesday of the tournament to the lowest seeded team would be hilarious AND if NCSU makes a run it could make it more likely they keep Keatts, so a win-win.
  • Lamar over McNeese (6:30pm). Wade's team is making a strong ass offer to the bubble in some brackets.

Looks to be about it for meaningful stuff today.
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Yeah I think this about sums up today.

Tomorrow has more of an impact for sure. Just off the top of my head I think we want Oklahoma to beat TCU. TCU has a worse resume and seems to be closer to the bubble than Oklahoma. TCU has lost four of six. I think both are probably in, but let's push TCU down to bubble world with us.

Depaul over Villanova (not going to happen but this eliminates Nova from the bubble)
Texas over Kansas State (eliminates KSU from making a run or being on the bubble)

Then we want any of the top five MWC teams (Utah State, Nevada, Boise State, SDSU, Colorado State) to win the MWC tournament. I think Colorado State is closer to the bubble than anybody really thinks, so maybe an SJSU win over them tomorrow (unlikely but always possible). We absolutely want Air Force to beat New Mexico.
 
DownEastDeac said:
Just curious, and likely may have already been discussed:
Of the 3 late consecutive losses to VT/ND/GT, is there one or more of the 3 that if we had only won that particular game but lost the other two, we would probably be currently "last 4 in"?
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Virginia Tech would've given us another Q1 win so I'd imagine that's got to be the one that would've moved the needle the most.
 
Pilchard said:
Arkansas State has a great chance tonight. Red Wolves have been playing well.
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JMU put down the hammer on Arkansas State. Total domination after the first 10 minutes. JMU will be a tough out.
 
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