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The Bubble

Wins against GT/ND and Pitt aren't going to move the needle. Beat UNC and there is a glimmer of hope.

But this is Wake. While we should beat both GT/ND and Pitt, we will probably lose the rubber match to GT/ND because that's just what we do come tourney time.
 
Win over Pitt would move the needle, whether its enough would depend on what else is happening in the world of college hoop. Yes, if WF wins three in the ACCT, the Deacs are in regardless of what happens in other games.
 
How will the committee look at teams from the Big East? They played a 20 game round robin schedule. Georgetown and Depaul won a total of 0 games against the rest of the league. So bubble teams like Providence (10-10), Villanova (10-10) and Butler (9-11) really went 5-11/6-10 against the competitive portion of their conference schedule. Only Louisville approaches that level of ineptitude in the ACC.

The ACC is at a bit of a disadvantage because our weaker teams are good enough to beat any of the other teams on a given night - see Georgia Tech beating Wake, Clemson, Duke, and UNC.
 
Sirdeacsalot said:
Win 2 games and we are in.
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Yeah. ESPN Bracketology this morning had us in the "Out Without this Win" category and listed the ND/GT game. But then it also listed Pitt in the same category for the game in which we would potentially play them. So that game may come down to be an elimination game.
 
MichDeac25 said:
Yeah. ESPN Bracketology this morning had us in the "Out Without this Win" category and listed the ND/GT game. But then it also listed Pitt in the same category for the game in which we would potentially play them. So that game may come down to be an elimination game.
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I saw that to. Probably universal agreement on here that winning tomorrow is not going to be enough. 2 wins might be, 3 would be safely in.
 
If we're not making it, I'd really like the 3-ACC scenario to play out. Virginia loses to Clemson, Pitt loses to us, some combo of Duke/UNC/Clemson make the final. ACC only gets Duke/UNC/Clemson despite having 6 top 50 Kenpom teams, everyone is pissed watching shitty Mountain West/MWC/WCC/WAC teams get blown out in the first round. NET/Quad system gets gutted next year.
 
That won't happen. People will just talk about how strong those conferences are and how crazy March is. And there's a good chance those teams get matched up against each other so that one of them will make the Sweet Sixteen without beating a power conference team seeded 7 or higher.
 
Heard some bettors are hoping that 7 MWC teams make the field... just so they can bet against them in the first round. Except for San Diego State (which is a big EXCEPT as they made it the Natty game), the MWC has been absolutely dreadful in their opening NCAAT games in recent tournaments. Some attribute the MWC's struggles to the failure of the power rankings to downward adjust these teams for the impact that altitude has had in their results. Outside of San Diego State, almost all of the MWC NCAAT contenders play at altitude, and they almost all have great home records particularly in OOC games. These teams struggle in NCAAT games which generally aren't played at altitude. There is a Salt Lake Region this year; so, maybe the MWC teams sent there will do better.
 
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Just find a way to win on a neutral court the next two days. Doesn't have to be pretty, just win and move on otherwise next November is a long way off!!!
 
Pilchard said:
Heard some bettors are hoping that 7 MWC teams make the field... just so they can bet against them in the first round. Except for San Diego State (which is a big EXCEPT as they made it the Natty game), the MWC has been absolutely dreadful in their opening NCAAT games in recent tournaments. Some attribute the MWC's struggles to the failure of the power rankings to downward adjust these teams for the impact that altitude has had in their results. Outside of San Diego State, almost all of the MWC NCAAT contenders paly at altitude, and they almost all have great home records particularly in OOC games. These teams struggle in a NCAAT games which generally aren't played at altitude. There is a Salt Lake Region this year; so, maybe the MWC teams sent there will do better.
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It should be in the NCAAT By-laws that no less than 7 ACC teams make the tourney every year.... because the ACC rules it and all this talk from joey lunardo about just 3 or 4 bids from the conference is insubordination.

ACC! ACC!! ACC!!!
 
tbird said:
Just find a way to win on a neutral court the next two days. Doesn't have to be pretty, just win and move on otherwise next November is a long way off!!!
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If they win twice and don’t get in, it will forever be debated on this board.
Will have to drop that NIT champ banner as the alternative.
 
Pilchard said:
Heard some bettors are hoping that 7 MWC teams make the field... just so they can bet against them in the first round. Except for San Diego State (which is a big EXCEPT as they made it the Natty game), the MWC has been absolutely dreadful in their opening NCAAT games in recent tournaments. Some attribute the MWC's struggles to the failure of the power rankings to downward adjust these teams for the impact that altitude has had in their results. Outside of San Diego State, almost all of the MWC NCAAT contenders play at altitude, and they almost all have great home records particularly in OOC games. These teams struggle in NCAAT games which generally aren't played at altitude. There is a Salt Lake Region this year; so, maybe the MWC teams sent there will do better.
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from last year:

Nevada the highest-rated KP team of the four going into Dayton, 1-point Torvik favorite over Arizona, loses by 25
Utah State a 4-point Torvik favorite over Missouri, loses by 11
Boise State a 1-point Torvik favorite over Northwestern, loses by 8
 
from 2022:

Boise 2-point Torvik dog, loses by 11
Colorado St 2-point Torvik dog, loses by 12
SDSU 3-point Torvik favorite, loses by 3 in OT
Wyoming 4-point Torvik dog, loses by 8 in Dayton

and while SDSU did have a great run in the NCAAT last year, they were 7-point Torvik favorites and won by 6 in round one. So if you bet against the MWC in their first games of the NCAA tournament over the last two seasons (assuming you got a spread set by Torvik...they are generally very close), you went 8-0
 
From 2021:

SDSU 5-point favorite over Syracuse, lost by 16
Utah St 3-point dog, lost by 12

From 2019:

Nevada 1-point dog, lost by 9
Utah State 2-point favorite, lost by 17

MWC 0-12 ATS and 1-11 SU in their first games of the NCAAT going back to 2019

one 6-point win; average margin in the 11 losses: 12 points
 
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PhDeac said:
It would certainly be hyped up as an elimination game whether it is or not.
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I mean in the sense that the loser of Wake/Pitt is definitely not making the tournament, it is an elimination game I think.

Problem is that the winner also may not make the tournament
 
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