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The Bubble

FWIW, Lunardi has us as the third team out at the moment. Both Dayton (as an 8) and FAU (as a 9) are in his field, and neither is the AQ from their conference, so they would be bid-donors rather than bid-thieves if they managed to win their respective conferences.
 
That looks right. Looks like USF has a slim shot at an at-large bid if they lose in the AAC Finals. Richmond has a slimmer shot by making the A-10 Finals.
 
As of now, a win over Pitt at a neutral court is a Quad 1 win, FWIW.
 
Rocket said:
The ACC is at a bit of a disadvantage because our weaker teams are good enough to beat any of the other teams on a given night - see Georgia Tech beating Wake, Clemson, Duke, and UNC.
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That they are good enough to beat any of the other teams on a given night does not speak to the strength of the ACC.
 
bym051d said:
Does anyone believe that if the MWC and the ACC played round robin that the ACC wouldn’t come out on top?

After adjusting for number of teams, metrics lovers.
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the MWC has 11 teams; the ACC has 15

throw out ACC teams number 6, 7, 9, and 10 and rank each conference based on Torvik:

1. ACC 8, MWC 25
2. ACC 9, MWC 31
3. ACC 26, MWC 34
4. ACC 33, MWC 37
5. MWC 40, ACC 44
6. MWC 51, ACC (#8 - we threw two teams out) 74
7. MWC 68, ACC (#11 - we threw two more teams out) 92
8. ACC 106, MWC 154
9. ACC 126, MWC 227
10. ACC 129, MWC 228
11. ACC 209, MWC 247

ACC wins 8-3. I excluded Torvik rated #54 VPI (VPI beat the MWC's 4th best team, Boise, by 7 on a neutral floor), #55 UVA, #81 NCST, and #89 Miami
 
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I guess I don’t understand what goes into the metrics enough, and I’m awfully tired of hearing about metrics, but I just don’t get why Clemson has been a tournament lock for so long. They’re not that good. They beat UNC but also lost to UNC. Lost to NCSU, GT, Miami. Beat Alabama but so did we (kind of) and we don’t get any credit for it! I also don’t get why Seton Hall is considered a pretty universal in for the tournament or why Seton Hall, Villanova, and St John’s are really even in the discussion. They suck! Is the Big East that much stronger than the ACC now? When I look at the ACC I see that most games can go either way on any night…except for Louisville. Sure seems like a strong conference to me.
 
thatguy2016 said:
From 2021:

SDSU 5-point favorite over Syracuse, lost by 16
Utah St 3-point dog, lost by 12

From 2019:

Nevada 1-point dog, lost by 9
Utah State 2-point favorite, lost by 17

MWC 0-12 ATS and 1-11 SU in their first games of the NCAAT going back to 2019

one 6-point win; average margin in the 11 losses: 12 points
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Thanks for your efforts thatguy2016.

Winning games in the NCAA tournament used to be a requirement for a conference to increase the number of their participants. San Diego State finally earned their bones by making the Final 4 last year after losing in the first round in 2022 and 2021. Every other MWC team invited to the Dance has lost their first round game since 2019. That's 0-9. This year there is talk that six of these frauds will secure invitations. This seems to be a clear indication that something is amiss with the selection committee.
 
DeacInVermont said:
Let's try to put together a Tuesday rooting guide. Pretty much got what we needed out of last night.

  • GT over ND (2pm) if only because I think we match up better with GT. ❌
  • WVU over The Fighin' Wes Millers (3pm). A Cincy run to the finals could bring them back to the bubble.❌
  • Louisville over NCSU (4:30pm). State losing on Tuesday of the tournament to the lowest seeded team would be hilarious AND if NCSU makes a run it could make it more likely they keep Keatts, so a win-win.❌
  • Lamar over McNeese (6:30pm). Wade's team is making a strong ass offer to the bubble in some brackets.❌

Looks to be about it for meaningful stuff today.
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0-4 today
 
Cincinnati get to play a depleted Kansas team tomorrow and are actually favored to win.
 
What does Wednesday have in store? There are some games that have marginal NET implications, but I'll leave those observations to someone else.

  • FSU vs. VaTech(12pm) - If you're concerned about VT claiming a bubble spot, you can pull for FSU. Alternatively, if VT wins here and beats UNC, that makes a path to the semis a bit clearer.
  • Oklahoma over TCU(3pm)- Lunardi has this as a "win and in" game, but it seems TCU is more at risk of being left out with a loss.
  • SJSU over Colorado St.(4:30pm)- CSU has a pretty thin profile for a team not considered all that close to the bubble. This could be a loss that has the committee give them a 2nd look. However, we don't want any bid thieves out of the MWC.
  • McNeese over Nicholls(5pm)- Let's let McNeese claim the autobid here.
  • Rutgers over Maryland(6:30pm) - An ever so slight help to the metrics.
  • Georgetown over Providence(6:30pm)- Friars are on the bubble a loss would knock them off.
  • Air Force over New Mexico(7pm)- Lunardi has UNM as out with a loss. They're the weakest of the MWC bubble teams.
  • Texas over KState(7pm)- Knock KSU out of future consideration.
  • NCSU over Syracuse(7pm)- A battle of #s 79 and 80 in the NET. Syracuse has more of a bubble case, it seems.
  • DePaul over Villanova(9pm)- Villanova could not absorb a loss to the Blue Demons.
  • Kansas over Cincy(9:30pm)- Kansas is depleted, but let's not let Cincy try to make a bubble case.
  • Clemson over BC(9:30pm)- Best to keep our Clemson win as Quad 1.
  • Arizona St. over Utah(11:30pm)- Could be a "lose and you're out" game for the Utes.
 
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