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The Future of Ukraine

Ms Tymoshenko, a billionaire from Ukraine's murky 1990's Natural Gas biz (to quote the NYT), has emerged as the foil to Putin. In some sense she represents all the jailed oligarchs. She is tough and has risen above the fray and those paralyzed by indecision and has quickly placed a group of her business peers to head up different districts and organize support -- basically both sides are bussing people in as if they were going to a European soccer match...right down to the flags, banners, shirts, etc., Both sides trying for a mass "selfie" in order to "document" their visions of history.
 
I don't think the McCains and Grahams of the GOP realize that our involvement in Afghanistan and weariness of our involvement in Iraq makes it politically and logistically difficult to back up and military saber rattling from our end.

Economic sanctions against Russian interests would be great, but does that mean nobody plays against the Nets or Cheslea?

We're in a globalized world in which we're all aligned with asshole leaders in some way shape or form. We can't just punish countries without hurting ourselves in some way.
 
PhDeac said:
I don't think the McCains and Grahams of the GOP realize that our involvement in Afghanistan and weariness of our involvement in Iraq makes it politically and logistically difficult to back up and military saber rattling from our end.

Economic sanctions against Russian interests would be great, but does that mean nobody plays against the Nets or Cheslea?

We're in a globalized world in which we're all aligned with asshole leaders in some way shape or form. We can't just punish countries without hurting ourselves in some way.
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The Russian stock market lost $60 billion in value yesterday.
 
Putin seems more like Trump than Hitler to me. Like Trump, Putin is an insecure blowhard who's not nearly as bright as people once thought he was. He's pursued his own interests tenaciously and has backed himself into a corner where he looks foolish and refuses to back down. Both guys are hyper pissed that people are laughing at them after they spent billions to build images that aren't even remotely close to what they want others to believe.
 
The West, especially the EU, have considerable economic weapons to use against Putin but will not use them, especially not in a meaningful fashion. Too many people are doing quite well through economic connections with Russia and the Russian economic elite. The US may use some but has much less economic clout with Russia than the EU. The common interest is to defuse the crisis ASAP. At the same time the long-term problem of what is to happen with Ukraine will remain.

Putin tried to buy Ukraine, with cheap gas and loans, for his Russuan led federation and to keep it out of the EU and potentially NATO. This failed due to the protests in Kiev and the bungling of his political allies in Ukraine. So, now he is trying to salvage what he can. I suspect Putin is subject to contrary forces in Russia. The security needs and the emotional ties pull him in one direction, while the business oligarchy may fear damage to its economic interests tied up with the West. Putin must navigate between these. As long as the EU signals business as usual and only takes cosmetic steps, Putin can continue to tack between the security/emotional interest and the business interest.
 
sailordeac said:
The West, especially the EU, have considerable economic weapons to use against Putin but will not use them, especially not in a meaningful fashion. Too many people are doing quite well through economic connections with Russia and the Russian economic elite. The US may use some but has much less economic clout with Russia than the EU. The common interest is to defuse the crisis ASAP. At the same time the long-term problem of what is to happen with Ukraine will remain.

Putin tried to buy Ukraine, with cheap gas and loans, for his Russuan led federation and to keep it out of the EU and potentially NATO. This failed due to the protests in Kiev and the bungling of his political allies in Ukraine. So, now he is trying to salvage what he can. I suspect Putin is subject to contrary forces in Russia. The security needs and the emotional ties pull him in one direction, while the business oligarchy may fear damage to its economic interests tied up with the West. Putin must navigate between these. As long as the EU signals business as usual and only takes cosmetic steps, Putin can continue to tack between the security/emotional interest and the business interest.
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well said
 
So Russia’s takeover of Crimea is complete-ish. The Crimeans held a “vote,” Putin signed the referendum this morning, and gave a speech which sounded like it included a bit of venting.

Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM
Putin: West always trying to put us in corner. They are irresponsible and unprofessional. If you push a spring too hard, it will recoil.
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I just wanted to include that tweet for the “no one puts Putin in a corner” laughs.

FiveThirtyEight: Many Signs Pointed to Crimea Independence Vote — But Polls Didn’t
 
Slight aside, but I'm always surprised at how McCain and Mitt react/respond to Obama. I get that they're butt hurt and truly believe they should've won, but neither has any future in the GOP. GOP candidates aren't begging for their endorsements or to campaign with them in either primaries or general elections. McCain, Graham, and Bolton are the most visible Neo-Cons left and they aren't the future. Rand Paul's much closer to foreign policy sweet spot of the GOP. The Tea Party hated Mitt and has moved to a much more populist Main Street position, deliberately distancing themselves from Romney. Both McCain and Romney ran for President twice and will never get over losing both times.
 
I don't really get what Putin's end game is. He has people in his own country pissed at all this. The ruble and stock market has been tanking lately and he is off playing Risk. Also something I read earlier that made a lot of sense was, say Russia takes Crimea and leaves the Ukraine. You have now annexed a strong counterbalance to western ambitions in the Ukraine. You think Ukraine isnt going to push for more EU involvement and possibly join NATO.
 
He's pissed England and Germany off, and they can turn the screws on him financially much more than we can. (note to self - when an aggressive country's really rich people start pulling their money out of foreign accounts, getting out of their own markets and start selling their own currency for USD...something is in the works)
 
ThinkingWithMyDeac said:
I don't really get what Putin's end game is. He has people in his own country pissed at all this. The ruble and stock market has been tanking lately and he is off playing Risk. Also something I read earlier that made a lot of sense was, say Russia takes Crimea and leaves the Ukraine. You have now annexed a strong counterbalance to western ambitions in the Ukraine. You think Ukraine isnt going to push for more EU involvement and possibly join NATO.
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This is a few days old now, but interesting:

Russia's Darwinian fight to regain Crimea

But for Russians, the promise that matters most is the one the U.S. government made to Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990. In exchange for a withdrawal of Soviet troops from East Germany, thus allowing the country’s reunification, Secretary of State James Baker, on behalf of President George H.W. Bush, promised Russia that the purview of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would not move “one inch east.” That promise was clearly, and spectacularly, broken. NATO moved hundreds of miles east. If Ukraine were ever to become associated with — or even a full member of — NATO, Russia would be ringed by NATO from the Baltic to the Black seas. Russia sees this as a threatening gesture on the part of the West and one that must be met and countered. To regain Crimea thus becomes a matter of survival, a Darwinian do-or-die crisis. Everything else — from laws and treaties to concern for Russian citizens living in Ukraine — is secondary at best, if not outright irrelevant.

For the time being, the Kremlin will be satisfied by an independent Crimea or one that rejoins Russia. That will leave a good number of Russians behind in cities like Donetsk and Odessa. That will make for ongoing conflict, and NATO does not like to admit nations as members that have not resolved their domestic conflicts. Russia can fan those flames if it looks as if NATO might make an exception and allow Ukraine membership.
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We have seen the "nice guys" who ran the Ukraine as a Russian proxy...

Now let's meet the Ultra-Nationalist Nazi's the U.S. and Europe are supporting.

http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2014/02/19/18751257.php

McCain and the US government are openly backing Nazis including Oleg Tyagnibok in the Ukraine. "Oleg Tyagnibok was a member of Ukraine’s Parliament, his colleagues kicked him out over a fiery speech in which he described how Ukrainians, during World War II, bravely fought Muscovites, Germans, Jews “and other scum,” and then used slurs to refer to the “Jewish-Russian mafia, which rules in Ukraine.”

I guess it can all be rationalized. After all, we don't want Russia controlling the vast oil and gas fields -
 
From the Forbes link earlier:

Myth 1: The Interim Ukrainian Government Is Shaky, Illegitimate And Run By Neo Nazis

Ukraine recently ousted its corrupt dictator, so many assume that the interim government is inexperienced and without democratic legitimacy. However, that narrative simply doesn’t fit the facts.

The truth is that Yanukovych’s own party turned against him. The Parliament today is made up of the same members as it was a before the revolution (besides a handful that are now on the run). Interim President Turchynov and Prime Minister Yatsenyuk are both former cabinet ministers and capable, experienced politicians and diplomats.

Three former democratically elected Ukrainian Presidents have issued a joint statement denouncing Russian actions and supporting an EU mission to the country. This represents the entire leadership of Ukraine as an independent country except for Yanukovych, who was impeached by his own parliament. A new presidential election is scheduled for May.

There has also been completely unfounded accusations that Ukraine’s interim government is “Neo-Nazi” and “Ultranationalist.” Timothy Snyder has done a wonderful job debunking these claims. The truth is that much of Ukraine’s present leadership, including Yatsenyuk are Jewish. Jewish community leaders in Ukraine have also refuted Russian accusations.

Only the most twisted mind could conceive of a Jewish led Nazi conspiracy. Are there Neo-Nazis in Ukraine? Sure, just as there are in Chicago and every other major American city. Are some politically active? Yes, as is David Duke in our own country. Do they have any power to shape policy or events? Categorically no.
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avalon said:
From the Forbes link earlier.

http://www.voltairenet.org/article182188.html

Nice spin...anybody truly following the story understands we are in bed with the same sort of thugs we currently back in Syria. This guy actually called for the coup to take place during the Olympic Games.

Svoboda provided the physical force:

After having dismembered Yugoslavia during a ten-year civil war (1990-1999), has the United States decided to destroy Ukraine in a similar way? This is what could be inferred from the maneuvers that the opposition is poised to launch during the Sochi Olympic Games.
Ukraine has been historically divided between, in the West, a population turned towards the European Union and, in the East, a population oriented towards Russia, plus a small Muslim minority in Crimea. After the country‘s independence, the government gradually crumbled. Taking advantage of the confusion, the United States organized the «Orange Revolution» (2004) [1], which brought to power a mafia clan, equally pro-Atlanticist. Moscow responded by lifting its subsidies on gas prices, but the Orange government could not rely on its Western allies to help pay the market price. Ultimately, it lost the 2010 presidential election in favor of Viktor Yanukovych, a corrupt politician, and an on again/off again pro-Russian.
On 21 November 2013, the government renounces signing the Association Agreement negotiated with the European Union. The opposition responds with protests in Kiev and in the western part of the country, which quickly take on an insurrectionary appearance. It calls for early presidential and parliamentary elections and refuses to form a government when approached by President Yanukovych and the Prime Minister resigns. The events are baptized Euromaidan, then Eurorevolution, by Radio Free Europe (run by the State Department).
The crowd control for the opposition is provided by Azatlyk, a group of young Crimean Tatars who returned from Jihad in Syria especially for the occasion [2].
The Atlanticist media champion the cause of the «democratic opposition» and condemn Russian influence. High-profile Western figures turn up to manifest their support to the protesters, including Victoria Nuland (Assistant Secretary of State and former Ambassador to NATO) and John McCain (Chairman of the Republican branch of the NED). For its part, the Russian press condemns protesters who have taken to the streets to overthrow democratically elected institutions.
Torch-lit march of 15,000 Nazis in Kiev on 1 January 2014.



At first, the movement seemed to be an attempt to orchestrate a second «Orange Revolution.» But on 1 January 2014 the power in the street changes hands. The Nazi «Freedom» party organizes a 15 000-strong torch-lit march in memory of Stepan Bandera (1909-1959), the nationalist leader who allied himself with the Nazis against the Soviets. Since this event, the capital has been covered with anti-Semitic graffiti and people are attacked on the street for being Jewish.
The pro-European opposition is made up of three political parties:
The All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland" (Batkivshchyna), led by the oligarch and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko (serving a prison sentence following her convictions for embezzlement) and currently headed by lawyer and former Parliament speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk. It stands for private property and the Western liberal model. It garnered 25.57% of the vote in the 2012 parliamentary elections.
The Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (Udar), of former boxing world champion Vitali Klitschko. It claims to identify with Christian Democracy and picked up 13.98% in the 2012 elections.
The All-Ukrainian Union "Svoboda" (Freedom), led by the surgeon Oleh Tyahnybok. This political group sprang from the National Socialist Party of Ukraine. It promotes the denaturalization of Jewish Ukrainians. It won 10.45% of the vote in the 2012 parliamentary elections.
These parliamentary parties have the support of:
The Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists, a Nazi splinter group from the former NATO stay-behind networks in the Eastern Bloc [3]. A Zionist, he calls for the denaturalization and deportation of Ukrainian Jews to Israel. He received 1.11% of the vote in 2012.
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