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The Future of Ukraine

sailordeac

sailordeac

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As soon as his security forces have taken control, Vlad the Invader will recommend an internationally supervised plebiscite on the future and independence of the Crimea. The result is a foregone conclusion. Other heavily Russian parts of Ukraine will also in the years to come organize such plebiscites on independence with predictable results. These newly independent states will join a federation with Russia and receive Russian militarty protection.

The western, non-Russian dominated part of Ukraine will eventually join the European Union and also NATO. This all appears pretty much inevitable, and there is little the West will be able, or have the stomach, or interest, to do about it.

What will the West say? It's OK for the Scots and the Catalans to vote on seccession and independence but not the Russian dominated parts of Ukraine? It's OK to have parts of the former Yugoslavia leave and form independent countries but not for the Crimea and other parts of Ukraine? It's OK for the Czechs and the Slovaks to break up but not Crimea and the Ukraine? And of course there is the common Eastern-Western-Ukrainian interest in keeping the oil and gas flowing. The break-up of Ukraine appears to have become inevitable.
 
What it's like to talk to Putin:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archiv...d-putin-talk-about-for-an-hour-and-a-half.php

It’s well known that Bush and Putin got on well at first. But when the relationship soured, Bush became exasperated by his talks with the Russian bully.

Putin seemed to delight in debating Bush. But according to Baker, Bush hated debating Putin. “He’s not well informed,” Bush complained. “It’s like arguing with an eighth grader with his facts wrong.” Bush described another encounter as “like junior high debating.”

One of Putin’s tactics was to present absurd analogies between his abuses of power and events in the U.S., a tactic also favored by Nikita Khrushchev in Soviet times:

“You talk about Khodorkovsky [the head of Yukos whose assets and freedom were taken from him after he became a critic of Putin], and I talk about Enron,” Putin told Bush. “You appoint the Electoral College and I appoint governors. What’s the difference?”

At another point, Putin defended his control over media in Russia. “Don’t lecture me about the free press,” he said, “not after you fired that reporter.”

“Vladimir, are you talking about Dan Rather?” Bush asked. Yes, replied Putin.

Bush explained to Putin that he had nothing to do with Rather losing his job. “I strongly suggest you not say that in public,” he added. “The American people will think you don’t understand our system.”

Putin’s ridiculous arguments were even harder to stomach because they were presented stridently and sarcastically by Putin’s interpreter. After one session, Bush told Tony Blair:

I sat there for an hour and forty-five minutes or an hour and forty minutes, and it went on and on. At one point, the interpreter made me so mad that I nearly reached over the table and slapped the hell out of the guy. He had a mocking tone, making accusations about America. He was just sarcastic.

This may have represented displacement of the anger Bush felt towards Putin.

In all likelihood, Putin gave Obama the same kind of treatment when they discussed Ukraine. Even “Mr. Words” Obama, who fancies himself an ace debater and has been known to use a “junior high” trick or two, must have tired of it pretty quickly.
 
I wonder if he keeps his shirt on during these conversations.
 
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Saddam, Gaddafi, and King Jong-un all made bizarre moves in desperate attempts for respect and attention, but none of them ever worked out well for them. Putin just dumped billions into Sochi to prop up Russian's PR. Don't see how Putin or Russia will be viewed more favorably on the world stage for invading another country just because they can.
 
I think Putin is worried first of all about Russian opinion, not world opinion. Nobody - save Western Ukraine - has a national interest is stopping Putin detaching eastern and southern Ukrainian territory, and so they wont. Everybody's interest will be for things to quiet down and get back to normal ASAP.
 
I keep looking and looking but can't find one picture of a peace protester in a European city. Well, it is Oscar weekend.
 
i think this kind of stuff is hard for Americans to understand. We came and took the country from the Indians. there are hardly any of them left and they have no power. We took some of it from Mexico, but there were hardly any Mexicans living there when we took it, and they had just finished stealing it from the Indians anyway. The concept of living in a country with territories that, in living memory, were the property of your next door neighbor is very foreign to the American mind. So is the reverse of that, living in a country whose next door neighbors used to be a part of your territory very recently and now aren't - and as a result millions of your former citizens/ethnic comrades live in the "wrong" country.

What I'm trying to say is that when a Russian talks to American about this, president-to-president or two dudes in a bar, they are coming from extremely different places with points of view that are likely very hard to reconcile.
 
RaleighDevil said:
What it's like to talk to Putin:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archiv...d-putin-talk-about-for-an-hour-and-a-half.php

It’s well known that Bush and Putin got on well at first. But when the relationship soured, Bush became exasperated by his talks with the Russian bully.

Putin seemed to delight in debating Bush. But according to Baker, Bush hated debating Putin. “He’s not well informed,” Bush complained. “It’s like arguing with an eighth grader with his facts wrong.” Bush described another encounter as “like junior high debating.”

One of Putin’s tactics was to present absurd analogies between his abuses of power and events in the U.S., a tactic also favored by Nikita Khrushchev in Soviet times:

“You talk about Khodorkovsky [the head of Yukos whose assets and freedom were taken from him after he became a critic of Putin], and I talk about Enron,” Putin told Bush. “You appoint the Electoral College and I appoint governors. What’s the difference?”

At another point, Putin defended his control over media in Russia. “Don’t lecture me about the free press,” he said, “not after you fired that reporter.”

“Vladimir, are you talking about Dan Rather?” Bush asked. Yes, replied Putin.

Bush explained to Putin that he had nothing to do with Rather losing his job. “I strongly suggest you not say that in public,” he added. “The American people will think you don’t understand our system.”

Putin’s ridiculous arguments were even harder to stomach because they were presented stridently and sarcastically by Putin’s interpreter. After one session, Bush told Tony Blair:

I sat there for an hour and forty-five minutes or an hour and forty minutes, and it went on and on. At one point, the interpreter made me so mad that I nearly reached over the table and slapped the hell out of the guy. He had a mocking tone, making accusations about America. He was just sarcastic.

This may have represented displacement of the anger Bush felt towards Putin.

In all likelihood, Putin gave Obama the same kind of treatment when they discussed Ukraine. Even “Mr. Words” Obama, who fancies himself an ace debater and has been known to use a “junior high” trick or two, must have tired of it pretty quickly.
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wow
 
Putin's a scary dude. If he continues to have success with this strongarm stuff, he will get bolder, and as he gets older he may get crazier. I am glad I don't live in Eastern Europe or the Baltic states. I think he will be causing instability in those countries for a few more decades.

I feel bad for the peeps in Ukraine, but I sure as hell don't want to go to war with Russia over it. We would not be happy if we were in some kind of scrap with Mexico and Russia was bossing us around or sending money and aid to Mexico.
 
Basically arguing with Putin is like arguing on the Tunnels.

923, good points. American foreign policy comes off hypocritical to countries who may view our entire history as recent.
 
Despite our foreign policy (which i see why it can be viewed as hypocritical ) this Ukraine/Russia thing is really scary for the whole world.
 
Pull out of the G8 summit and request a review of Russia's status as a member. Combine that with downgrading their debt rating and freezing up their credit markets. Pull the 2018 World Cup and relocate it to the US.
 
ONW said:
Pull out of the G8 summit and request a review of Russia's status as a member. Combine that with downgrading their debt rating and freezing up their credit markets. Pull the 2018 World Cup and relocate it to the US.
Click to expand...

1. G8 review is inevitable
2. People (China, Arabs, etc) will still lend them money no matter what the clearly politicized and half-competent (think Lehman Brothers top rating) services say
3. Shep is too well-bribed and corrupt for that, although he may threaten a pull-out (to extort more bribes)
 
Deacon923 said:
i think this kind of stuff is hard for Americans to understand. We came and took the country from the Indians. there are hardly any of them left and they have no power. We took some of it from Mexico, but there were hardly any Mexicans living there when we took it, and they had just finished stealing it from the Indians anyway. The concept of living in a country with territories that, in living memory, were the property of your next door neighbor is very foreign to the American mind. So is the reverse of that, living in a country whose next door neighbors used to be a part of your territory very recently and now aren't - and as a result millions of your former citizens/ethnic comrades live in the "wrong" country.

What I'm trying to say is that when a Russian talks to American about this, president-to-president or two dudes in a bar, they are coming from extremely different places with points of view that are likely very hard to reconcile.
Click to expand...

I thought it was interesting when I read that ethnic Russians are not native to the Crimean anyway and the Tatars got a raw deal. Interesting area of the world. What seems most likely to me is Russia pushes for Crimean independence and then they just act as a Russian proxy. If Putin stops there then I am not sure we stop him. If he pushes into the East of Ukraine then we prob see a war.
 
Is the big bad Russian boogeyman coming to convert us all to Communism again?

oh drat.
 
From hosting the Olympic games to invading a sovereign country in under what two weeks? Impressive turnaround.
 
ONW said:
From hosting the Olympic games to invading a sovereign country in under what two weeks? Impressive turnaround.
Click to expand...

Not really Butthead! Hitler remilitarized the Rhineland five months before hosting the Olympic games in Berlin.
 
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