UNC-G, 7:00 PM; ESPN3--On a TUESDAY!

[TownieDeac]

Credit to AW Bridgers at Blogger So Dear - how sick would this dunk have been:

 

[Why the Deac Not]

Indeed, easy to feel a bit hypersensitive or prickly as an abused Wake Forest alum and fan. I can certainly relate to that! So forgive me if I came across that way as well. That's the danger of having this message board as pretty much the only outlet for purging the pent up angst and frustration I feel when watching Wake hoops. Always hoping others' perspectives and takes on things presented here might help me feel better about something that maybe I'm over-emphasizing or see something I may have overlooked.

But more importantly, despite all the abuse and all too frequent disappointment over 20+ years of this, why do I still let myself get so caught up in the progress (or lack thereof) and development of a team of kids playing basketball?! Guess I've let myself get overly impressed by the more than flickering flashes of potential and want (too badly) to see Danny and his charges really make some noise because I genuinely like the coaches, the players and the overall direction we're headed in. I just hope I'm not totally deluded in thinking this team has the potential to be more than a middling 6-12 or 7-11 also-ran in the ACC.

 

[pourdeac]

Good teams pound weaker opponents (at least some of their weaker opponents). When UVA was just starting to ascend(2012-2013), they started annihilating weak teams. They beat Wofford by 37 and Seattle by 40 among other dominating wins which has continued over the next 3 seasons. Margin of victory matters. It's a strong predictive tool. No question that winning is far better than losing, but how you win is improtant.

in Bennett's 4th year, yes?

 

[simosfrostyone]

Good teams pound weaker opponents (at least some of their weaker opponents). When UVA was just starting to ascend(2012-2013), they started annihilating weak teams. They beat Wofford by 37 and Seattle by 40 among other dominating wins which has continued over the next 3 seasons. Margin of victory matters. It's a strong predictive tool. No question that winning is far better than losing, but how you win is improtant.

With that said, WF played its first few games without Crab and CMM. CMM is going to take a few games before he returns to form. So, there are explanations as to why WF is not hitting all cylinders, but even taking into account of those factors, WF needs to play better to be anything other than an NIT bubble team.

UVA plays defense. We haven't played much of that since the Odom days.

 

[Why the Deac Not]

Good teams pound weaker opponents (at least some of their weaker opponents). When UVA was just starting to ascend(2012-2013), they started annihilating weak teams. They beat Wofford by 37 and Seattle by 40 among other dominating wins which has continued over the next 3 seasons. Margin of victory matters. It's a strong predictive tool. No question that winning is far better than losing, but how you win is improtant.

With that said, WF played its first few games without Crab and CMM. CMM is going to take a few games before he returns to form. So, there are explanations as to why WF is not hitting all cylinders, but even taking into account of those factors, WF needs to play better to be anything other than an NIT bubble team.

Good points and the chemistry issue is certainly one not to be taken lightly. It will take some time for the lineups to gel with CMM and Hudson still feeling their way back into the fold. Scary thing is we're running out of "dress rehearsal" games.

However, I feel like DM does his team a disservice at times with the quick hooks (especially against inferior opponents), taking hot players out for rest, and strange sub patterns that don't allow some of our better players to develop chemistry with one another. Especially DT and JC. I know Dinos was on fire last night, but seems like UNCG would have been a good opponent against which to experiment more with JC at the 3 and see if a zone might keep him out of foul trouble.

Then again, DM knows we're not gonna be able to play a lot of zone successfully against the better ACC teams, but I'd still like to see more emphasis on getting looks inside and pounding a smaller, weaker team with our front court. Guess relying on freshman big men to bring consistent intensity, savvy and awareness is a big ask though.

Wish I could see film of the Arkansas game as it seems like we had just about everyone involved and more players excelled from a better overall team effort and dare I say, game plan?

 

[CantStandYa]

Good teams pound weaker opponents (at least some of their weaker opponents). When UVA was just starting to ascend(2012-2013), they started annihilating weak teams. They beat Wofford by 37 and Seattle by 40 among other dominating wins which has continued over the next 3 seasons. Margin of victory matters. It's a strong predictive tool. No question that winning is far better than losing, but how you win is improtant.

With that said, WF played its first few games without Crab and CMM. CMM is going to take a few games before he returns to form. So, there are explanations as to why WF is not hitting all cylinders, but even taking into account of those factors, WF needs to play better to be anything other than an NIT bubble team.

Small steps. That was a game that we absolutely would've lost under the previous regime (and probably even last year). Also, unless we completely collapse in ACC play - which is unlikely IMO - we're an NCAA bubble team, with an NIT bid all-but guaranteed.

 

[Deacsfan27]

Small steps. That was a game that we absolutely would've lost under the previous regime (and probably even last year). Also, unless we completely collapse in ACC play - which is unlikely IMO - we're an NCAA bubble team, with an NIT bid all-but guaranteed.

This isn't necessarily true. If we go 6-12 or 7-11 in the ACC (completely reasonable), that puts us at 14/15 wins before the ACC Tournament. That's certainly not an NIT guaranteed record.

That's not exactly "collapsing" either.

 

[CantStandYa]

Fair enough. I would consider a 6-12 ACC record to be a collapse, considering we went 5-13 last year, but that's picking nits. We're looking at either 8-4 or 9-3 non-con record, so a .500 ACC record puts us at 17-13 (at least), which is squarely NCCA bubble territory. Even a 7-11 record puts us at 15-15 (at least), which I would consider to be NIT lock for an ACC team.

All this math means the Richmond loss really hurts and the LSU game is potentially huge.

 

[Deacsfan27]

Fair enough. I would consider a 6-12 ACC record to be a collapse, considering we went 5-13 last year, but that's picking nits. We're looking at either 8-4 or 9-3 non-con record, so a .500 ACC record puts us at 17-13 (at least), which is squarely NCCA bubble territory. Even a 7-11 record puts us at 15-15 (at least), which I would consider to be NIT lock for an ACC team.

All this math means the Richmond loss really hurts and the LSU game is potentially huge.

Going 9-9 in conference is going to be much easier said than done.

If we beat:

State (home)
VT (away)
Syracuse (home)
Clemson (home)
Florida State (home)
Georgia Tech (away)
BC (home)
Virginia Tech (home)

We still need to win one of:

@Louisville
Duke
@UNC
@Miami
Virginia
@Notre Dame
@N.C. State
@Pitt
Notre Dame
@Duke

That’s giving us the benefit of the doubt in nearly all the toss-up games. KP has us at 6-12 in conference.

I think we probably need 16-17 wins to have a chance at the NIT and even then we may not make it.

The worst "at-large" bid last year went 17-15 (Arizona State), and all but 7 had 20+ wins (5/7 had 19).

With our SOS you would think we would also make it at 17-15(isn), but honestly I have no idea how in-depth the NIT selection process is. I just know that all teams that win their regular season conference make the NIT, while the First Four out the NCAAT now get the 1-seeds.

 

[DeacsATS]

Last night's game was disappointing. There is no reason for Wake to not win that game by 15+. I suspect both NCSU and UNC will blow them out over the next couple of weeks. As Pilchard said, good teams pound weaker opponents.

After Coastal Carolina, we will not be favored until the 1/10 NCSU game (and even that is questionable). Play like we have since leaving Maui, and we could lose our next 12(!) games. I don't expect that to happen, but even the most optimistic fan would probably only have us at 6-6 over that stretch. Brutal games coming.

Having said that, the UNCG games was the last potential blowout (in our favor) on the schedule... From here on out, I am firmly in the "just win, baby" camp.

 

[Pilchard]

in Bennett's 4th year, yes?

Yep 2012-2013, was Bennett's 4th year. UVA was a NCAA bubble team. UVA was one of the first teams left out; they went to the NIT that year. Was not trying to compare Bennett's career arc at UVA to Manning's situation at WF as I don't think UVA had any even CMM and Devin Thomas level players on board when Dave Leitao was fired. Was just trying to make the point that teams with NCAA at large aspirations show the ability to dominant at least some of their weaker opponents because that's what top 40 teams do. WF has not shown that ability yet.

 

[simosfrostyone]

Going 9-9 in conference is going to be much easier said than done.

If we beat:

State (home)
VT (away)
Syracuse (home)
Clemson (home)
Florida State (home)
Georgia Tech (away)
BC (home)
Virginia Tech (home)

We still need to win one of:

@Louisville
Duke
@UNC
@Miami
Virginia
@Notre Dame
@N.C. State
@Pitt
Notre Dame
@Duke

That’s giving us the benefit of the doubt in nearly all the toss-up games. KP has us at 6-12 in conference.

I think we probably need 16-17 wins to have a chance at the NIT and even then we may not make it.

The worst "at-large" bid last year went 17-15 (Arizona State), and all but 7 had 20+ wins (5/7 had 19).

With our SOS you would think we would also make it at 17-15(isn), but honestly I have no idea how in-depth the NIT selection process is. I just know that all teams that win their regular season conference make the NIT, while the First Four out the NCAAT now get the 1-seeds.

I want us to win a ton of games but couldn't care less if we make the NIT.

 

[Deacsfan27]

The NIT is pretty big from an experience and exposure standpoint. It definitely matters.

 

[wfupdx]

Couple of random observations from last night:

1. We can't seem to ever extend leads and put away inferior teams. Some of that is we are not that good. I think DM gets some blame as mentioned for taking out hot hands and mixing in bad combinations. If you can get a team down 14+ points it will often snowball from there as they start panicking and taking bad shots. Would prefer to get up by 17 and then start playing around with lineups etc. Manning seems to take opposite approach and it ends up keeping game close. This is not a single game occurrence but happens over and over against bad teams.

2. CMM looked bad--but he runs the break and finishes MUCH better than BC at this point in career. This results in easy scores and we have been missing this aspect sorely this year. BC will be fine in time but he is just not quite there yet. This alone is going to help us a lot.

3. I love BC and think he will be great, but he results in too many empty possessions by trying to make the great pass or getting ball to teammate in wrong position (see DT's travel last night). This will improve but needs to happen sooner rather than later.

4. As someone else mentioned, would like to see DT and JC together more. DT was getting double teamed and doing nice job of passing out to wing. However, would love to see some interior passing from DT to JC---don't think UNCG could have handled that. Plus, it might allow JC to not get in as much foul trouble if he has DT helping out down low as well.

5. Lastly, Hudson needs to make up his mind to get his points at the FT line. With his shooting ability, handle, and length, he ought to be able to force the action and either get some close in shots (which are more likely to be offensive rebounded) or get to the line. Can still shoot 3s, but this doesn't need to be primary.

 

[birdman]

Apologies for singling you out, but one of the things that rankles me the most is when some of y'all are quick to dismiss constructive criticism or legitimate concern simply because our record is X-Z. Records don't matter if the team doesn't improve. How many years have we seen good WF teams with good records going into Feb fade badly because they failed to improve or regress towards tendencies we all knew they had? Pretty much for all eternity with a few rare exceptions.

Anyway, I understand your viewpoint, but for you and Townie to poo-poo fans for expressing doubt and disgust smacks of disingenuous condescension. Why bother with any discussion at all? Let's just be happy with finally not sucking and being rid of Bzzdoofus cuz it's all sunshine and lollipops now despite sinking in the almighty KP rankings that so many of you delight in cramming down our throats as biblical in its omniscience?

Was surprised there wasn't more gnashing of teeth after the game considering this team has shown serious potential to rise from the depths of Bzz-inflicted hell, but then when fans express warranted frustration and disenchantment, they get met with lecturing admonishment by the silver linings brigade.

I support this view point. If we win the national championship game and I come out criticizing Manning for his substitution patterns, go ahead and give me shit at that point...but I, as a fan, am not satisfied with just being better than we were 2 years ago. I can accept that it will be a longish road to recovery but for fans to not be skeptical and critical along the way, especially given what we've been through for the last 5 years and Manning's inexperience as an HC, is just silly to me. Having said that, my skepticism is declining. This team has obvious weaknesses and the coaching staff makes some questionable decisions, but it looks to me like we are on an upward trajectory. I am coming around.

 

[pourdeac]

Yep 2012-2013, was Bennett's 4th year. UVA was a NCAA bubble team. UVA was one of the first teams left out; they went to the NIT that year. Was not trying to compare Bennett's career arc at UVA to Manning's situation at WF as I don't think UVA had any even CMM and Devin Thomas level players on board when Dave Leitao was fired. Was just trying to make the point that teams with NCAA at large aspirations show the ability to dominant at least some of their weaker opponents because that's what top 40 teams do. WF has not shown that ability yet.

Mike Scott and Mustafa Farrakhan might be considered similar.

It looks to me like DM established the team rules and individual toughness in Year 1. In Year 2 he's sort of focused more on building team chemistry and team toughness via the rotation....a next man up kind of attitude. I expect a focus on defense will come shortly.

As for last night, we always seem to be rusty coming off that break. No surprise there.

 

[siff]

Credit to AW Bridgers at Blogger So Dear - how sick would this dunk have been:

I was so pissed when that didn't go in because it was Teague-like

 

[deacondamo]

Yep 2012-2013, was Bennett's 4th year. UVA was a NCAA bubble team. UVA was one of the first teams left out; they went to the NIT that year. Was not trying to compare Bennett's career arc at UVA to Manning's situation at WF as I don't think UVA had any even CMM and Devin Thomas level players on board when Dave Leitao was fired. Was just trying to make the point that teams with NCAA at large aspirations show the ability to dominant at least some of their weaker opponents because that's what top 40 teams do. WF has not shown that ability yet.

Leitao wouldn't just sit in his office and watch youtube videos of the recruits that he had incoming?

 

[deacondamo]

I support this view point. If we win the national championship game and I come out criticizing Manning for his substitution patterns, go ahead and give me shit at that point...but I, as a fan, am not satisfied with just being better than we were 2 years ago. I can accept that it will be a longish road to recovery but for fans to not be skeptical and critical along the way, especially given what we've been through for the last 5 years and Manning's inexperience as an HC, is just silly to me. Having said that, my skepticism is declining. This team has obvious weaknesses and the coaching staff makes some questionable decisions, but it looks to me like we are on an upward trajectory. I am coming around.

He has explained the substitution patterns. Guys who play and practice harder get the minutes. Is some donk on the bench wants more minutes, he has to earn them. I find it to be commendable, honestly. Dare I say that Manning is establishing his CULTURE on this team?

 

[Why the Deac Not]

Interesting to note that last night's game marked Wake's lowest total of FG attempted at 47 as well as their lowest number of REBs recorded (35) this season.

Perhaps not overstating it to say that "rust", lethargy, disjointed chemistry with CMM's return were indeed big factors in the lackluster performance.

Luckily, and probably due more to the opponent, Wake was quite efficient shooting 48.9% from the field and 40% from 3 while assisting on 65% of their made buckets, which was a season-high percentage for assists on makes.

Good to see that Wake has been able to win in a variety of ways and not necessarily have to play flawlessly to do so. I find it interesting to see how we can beat a team like Indiana with only 6 assists, yet still manage to play within the team concept or framework. Obviously it helps to get to the line as well -- which we didn't do against IU -- but did so in remarkable fashion against UCLA with 42 FT attempts. Looks like we're going to pound it inside against as much as we can when not saddled with foul trouble and get to the line as much as possible (although it would be nice to see us finish at the bucket better). But we're not going to be afraid to take what the D gives us and launch 3's in bunches when necessary. So it's heartening to see the Deacs shoot better than 38% from 3 in 5 of their last 7 games (going back to the Richmond game). Throwing out the Vandy effort, Wake has averaged 7.2 made 3's since Bucknell, which is actually better than most probably expected.

Perhaps most troubling is the fact that we haven't been quite as good at clearing the boards the last several games with 4 of our 5 lowest rebounding totals since the Indiana game. Although some of that can be attributed to strength of the opponent and Collins' persistent failure to stay on the court and out of foul trouble.