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Wake Forest 2023 baseball season thread (Deacs end historic season with extra inning loss to LSU: Final record 54-12 and top 4 finish nationally)

WindyCityDeac said:
My general rule of thumb is in an elimination game you throw the best you have and worry about tomorrow tomorrow
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I get the logic, but to me this feels analogous to kicking a FG from the 10 yard line with 3 minutes left when you are losing by >3 points.

Yeah, it gets you closer to winning on the scoreboard, but it actually makes your probability of winning (the regional) worse.
 
it’s obviously tough because the ultimate goal is winning the region. If you don’t but you win one game it doesn’t matter IMO but fans don’t always get that either. Like if Wake were planning to throw a “weaker” arm against George Mason knowing having that guy go against Maryland is lower odds and you lose to George Mason fans would be foing nuts lol. Not that staffs should plan on what fans would be mad at but still
 
deacon14 said:
I get the logic, but to me this feels analogous to kicking a FG from the 10 yard line with 3 minutes left when you are losing by >3 points.

Yeah, it gets you closer to winning on the scoreboard, but it actually makes your probability of winning (the regional) worse.
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Yeah I think the answer at any point SHOULD be “what increases our chances of winning the regional” I do not think that’s how coaches are thinking though just given how coaches handle other basic math situations so poorly in every other sport we see
 
deacon14 said:
I get the logic, but to me this feels analogous to kicking a FG from the 10 yard line with 3 minutes left when you are losing by >3 points.

Yeah, it gets you closer to winning on the scoreboard, but it actually makes your probability of winning (the regional) worse.
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Well we are also an anomaly with the relatively interchangeable pitching pieces we have.

IF we had to play GM tomorrow. I’d probably go with Reed on a super short leash. Tomorrow is a DH day for whoever comes out of the losers bracket
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Yeah I think the answer at any point SHOULD be “what increases our chances of winning the regional” I do not think that’s how coaches are thinking though just given how coaches handle other basic math situations so poorly in every other sport we see
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Yeah but could you imagine how we would crush Walter if he pitched Reed and he gave up 5R and we lost an elimination game that way ?
 
WindyCityDeac said:
Yeah but could you imagine how we would crush Walter if he pitched Reed and he gave up 5R and we lost an elimination game that way ?
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This is the risk averse behavior that so many coaches are susceptible to.

They’d rather lose (but not look dumb) than adopt the strategy that has the best winning chances (but will make them look dumb if it doesn’t work).
 
Don’t think we lose tonight and think we roll, BUT if we were to lose I would go Sullivan for GM and then Hartle and Reed for Maryland. Too risky for Reed in a must win game as he obviously has highest ERA and that against lesser teams. Goal is to get to a final elim game and if you make it that far you have Reed vs Md‘s 4th starter/bullpen vs Reed vs GM’s 3rd starter/bullpen and like the former from odds perspective.
 
saltydeac said:
Don’t think we lose tonight and think we roll, BUT if we were to lose I would go Sullivan for GM and then Hartle and Reed for Maryland. Too risky for Reed in a must win game as he obviously has highest ERA and that against lesser teams. Goal is to get to a final elim game and if you make it that far you have Reed vs Md‘s 4th starter/bullpen vs Reed vs GM’s 3rd starter/bullpen and like the former from odds perspective.
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if you are in the losers bracket, they are all must-win games. the question is whether you would rather go with mascolo in a must-win game vs gmu or in a must-win game vs maryland.
 
Also Mascolo vs GM’s 3rd starter is a way easier matchup than Mascolo vs Maryland’s 4th starter.

Maryland’s hitting is legitimately elite.
 
George Mason is in trouble from here on out pitching wise. Maryland is barely that much better. Wake is absolutely dominating with a win tonight
 
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