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WFU @ Louisville – Sat 10/29 – 3:30 ACCN

tigerswood said:
If we win out, we will have beaten 3 straight ranked teams and have the head to head over UNC. A 10-3 UNC being ranked over 10-2 Wake would make zero sense.
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fair enough. I guess the larger point is, we have 4 games that are reasonably expected to be close games. If we beat UNC, odds are we will lose at least one of the other games. Sagarin predictor says the lines should be:

at State: WF +3
vs. UNC: WF -2
vs. Cuse: WF -2.5
at Duke: WF -2.5

UNC's four remaining games:

at UVA: UNC-7
at WF: UNC +2
GT: UNC -15
State: pick 'em

you can pick around the edges at any of those individual lines - State is probably worse than that (for both schedules), for example, but the larger point is, WF has a roughly 7% chance of winning out based on those odds. If WF beats UNC, there is still a roughly 85% chance WF will lose another game (obviously we will know about NC State before then)

UNC's chances of winning out are roughly 14%. If UNC loses to WF, they have a 30% chance of winning the other 3 games.
 
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It’s an incredibly bizarre loss but one that feels familiar given the Pitt/Wisc similar meltdowns.

At this point, it happens, but I really don’t feel it’s a bellwether for the team, I think shit just happens sometimes. We were winning at halftime and the offense was just starting to click.

Incredibly weird game, a win in Raleigh will sure feel great next week. These next four weeks will find out where we truly are as a program.
 
liveanddiedeac said:
Last week I was like how can Miami turn the ball over 8 times against Duke? My Deacs said “hold my beer,” I guess we just wore out before we could make it 9.
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same. i was laughing and asking how can a team turn the ball over eight times. welp
 
FYI the program record for turnovers in a game is 9, vs. Duke in 1956. 8 lost fumbles (out of 12 total fumbles) and one interception. WF lost that game 26-0. Paul Amen was in his first year as coach.
 
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Harpua said:
It’s an incredibly bizarre loss but one that feels familiar given the Pitt/Wisc similar meltdowns.

At this point, it happens, but I really don’t feel it’s a bellwether for the team, I think shit just happens sometimes. We were winning at halftime and the offense was just starting to click.

Incredibly weird game, a win in Raleigh will sure feel great next week. These next four weeks will find out where we truly are as a program.
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I want to agree with this, but that game yesterday was really demoralizing and I'm concerned about the guys', and especially Sam's, ability to bounce back. It's not like the Clemson loss, where we went toe to toe with an elite program and just came up short thanks to the law of averages. We got absolutely trucked by a mediocre, undisciplined team whose coach is about to get fired. I'm still trying to sort out how the OL was so abysmally bad yesterday after holding their own against Clemson.

Louisville was obviously a lot more motivated since this game was pretty much their season. But we don't have any right to complain about lack of respect nationally with performances like that.
 
CONeill said:
I wasn't there and they never gave those of us on Zoom opportunity to ask Clawson questions. As I think I saw somebody else say toward the end of the game -- hardly a pertinent issue in the immediacy of the game, anyway.

Maybe I'll ask about it on Tuesday.

What I know is: Clawson always prefers to get a first down before going tempo in 2-3-minute offense. When you have the "take what the defense gives you" offense against a defense that's usually dropping LBs and safeties back, that winds up in handoffs. Against Louisville, their guys get off blocks a lot faster than most defenses Wake plays (the whole "they have athletes" aspect at work, no matter how bad they are), so that's why Wake wasn't able to break either of those first two runs. The other principle of Wake's hurry-up offense is to not take sacks, which is what Hartman did on third down.

I think the timeouts when Wake was on defense were to set the defense instead of get the ball back with time left to do anything. That's just guessing and trying to get inside of Clawson's head.

Now, as far as the last possession and what Wake was trying to do ... I've got nothing, man. They drained time and then took a shot and didn't have enough time to do as much as they needed to.
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We were wondering that also sitting there Conor. Then with the penalties and the FG miss on the 3rd try it did play into our hands for a quick drive for points. But was wondering why we let the clock run so much then threw that long pass that only gave us :02?
 
PaddyWF said:
The only thing I can't get over is that BC beat Louisville.
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Helped that they knocked Malik out of the game late, so UL's last two drives were with Brock Domann.

Also helped that BC runs 12 personnel -- 1 RB, 2 TEs.
 
I don’t know why I still re-watch games when we lose in horrible fashion (it hurts so good) but three things stood out after seeing yesterday’s shit show again…

1) OL play was really bad. When Sam had time, he made some good passes. I’d say two of the 3rd quarter TOs were his fault, two of the others were about 50% his fault and then two others weren’t his fault at all. Our RBs also looked bad. Was happy to see Towns play well down the stretch.

2) We were out coached. If the defense is teeing off on you, I think Clawson and Warren are wholly responsible for changing up the pace of the offense. Some quick strike throws and or runs would force the defense to play back a little more. The mesh is our calling card, but we need to be able to adjust if we’re getting torched on the OL. That felt similar to the Pitt game last year.

3) Last, it didn’t determine the outcome of the game but it very well could have changed the momentum and made UL play a little less aggressive into the middle of the third quarter…the end of half clock management and play calling was terrible. There’s no other way to put it. Forbes talks about winning the middle eight all the time and Clawson needs to adopt the same mindset. We have consistently looked sluggish to start second halves and we revert to gutless conservatism when the opportunity to strike (both on offense and defense) to end halves is there for the taking. It’s a problem that needs to be addressed at this point.

If we run the table to end the season we will look at this season as a great season with a lot of what ifs. Sam is the man. Hope he bounces back and we wreck State next weekend. Go Deacs
 
Last Wednesday on the radio show Clawson was saying how opposing coaches usually tell him how good our Oline plays, because they have to hold their blocks so long in slow mesh. I guessing Satterfield didn’t make that commit yesterday.
 
liveanddiedeac said:
Last Wednesday on the radio show Clawson was saying how opposing coaches usually tell him how good our Oline plays, because they have to hold their blocks so long in slow mesh. I guessing Satterfield didn’t make that commit yesterday.
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Our OL is a great unit, but holding those blocks in the slow mesh is hard when your RB doesn’t help shut down the rush and when your QB makes the wrong reads. We had all three things go wrong yesterday. Should have transitioned to more jumbo sets and quick passing routes, but we didn’t and the UL defense kept coming at us full speed.
 
SkyDivingDeacon said:
Our OL is a great unit, but holding those blocks in the slow mesh is hard when your RB doesn’t help shut down the rush and when your QB makes the wrong reads. We had all three things go wrong yesterday. Should have transitioned to more jumbo sets and quick passing routes, but we didn’t and the UL defense kept coming at us full speed.
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No way you can blame that bullshit yesterday on Sam’s reads and the RB. Our OLine was absolute dogshit and Ruggiero was absolutely out schemed and unprepared for the constant delayed blitzing.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
No way you can blame that bullshit yesterday on Sam’s reads and the RB. Our OLine was absolute dogshit and Ruggiero was absolutely out schemed and unprepared for the constant delayed blitzing.
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I mean, all three of those things did happen so sure there’s blame all around, but I agree with you in that our OL played terribly. Sam’s reads on a few plays and the lack of a few blocks by our RBs made our showing worse, but the OL was consistently bad. No doubt about it. Also agree that Warren was out coached. Just a bad all around game across the board.

ETA: Read five or six posts up. We’re saying the same thing.
 
I believe all 3 INT's thrown by Sam were straight drops, not RPO - I am certain the first two were not RPO

(and of course the second INT is on Greene, not Hartman)
 
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