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What craziness will happen next week at DNC Convention?

BobStackFan4Life said:
But it seems like most everyone agrees that their convention was a debacle. I don't know any Pubs who were like, "Yeah, this kicks ass". Most were cringing at the lineup and all the plagiarism. And then what happened with Ted Cruz. JHMD might be right about casual followers of politics being surprised by how much they agreed with Trump's speech. It might be why, even though he's a terrible debater (worst I've ever seen) he comes out of the debates against Hillary okay.
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Apparently the "biggest de-bacling in the history of debacled" conventions gets the standard 4-5 convention bump. No reason to expect consistency from the people who supported Sanders and Clinton in the same election.
 
BobStackFan4Life said:
But it seems like most everyone agrees that their convention was a debacle. I don't know any Pubs who were like, "Yeah, this kicks ass". Most were cringing at the lineup and all the plagiarism. And then what happened with Ted Cruz. JHMD might be right about casual followers of politics being surprised by how much they agreed with Trump's speech. It might be why, even though he's a terrible debater (worst I've ever seen) he comes out of the debates against Hillary okay.
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Yeah I don't have a good answer.

A lot of casual Pubs agree with his dislike of Obama, the "negative" direction of the nation, and the need for change.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
...or it's just a standard 4-5 point convention bump.
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Trump was down 7 and in serious danger a couple of weeks ago. Comey bitchslapping gave Trump a 4 point bump. Got nothing from Pence and still down 1 after the convention. Would have been up 2 points with the expected bump. HRC should be up 4 by the end of next week.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Trump was down 7 and in serious danger a couple of weeks ago. Comey bitchslapping gave Trump a 4 point bump. Got nothing from Pence and still down 1 after the convention. Would have been up 2 points with the expected bump. HRC should be up 4 by the end of next week.
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But when you are in prime time for a week on all the national networks slamming your opponent, you will go up and the opponent will go down.
 
The convention was a shitshow, but Trump came out looking better, Pence did no harm, and they made Hillary look worse. Now will the GOP convention help down ballot? Don't know. Will it help other speakers like Cruz or Christie? Don't know.

Add in FMR's points that Hillary got nothing but bad press leading into the GOP convention and during it, it's not surprising Trump got a bump.

These conventions are way too early. I would have rather seen them squeezed in between the Olympics and start of the Fall TV and NFL seasons.
 
BobStackFan4Life said:
But it seems like most everyone agrees that their convention was a debacle. I don't know any Pubs who were like, "Yeah, this kicks ass". Most were cringing at the lineup and all the plagiarism. And then what happened with Ted Cruz. JHMD might be right about casual followers of politics being surprised by how much they agreed with Trump's speech. It might be why, even though he's a terrible debater (worst I've ever seen) he comes out of the debates against Hillary okay.
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It's curious to say the least. I'd be interested to look at the polling logistics - number of respondents, likely vs. registered voters, demos (gender, race, etc), geography. That said, it seemed to be an across-the-board bounce, so I suppose it's further proof that scaring the shit out of people works.
 
Trump got a much bigger bump from Comey than he got from his own convention. Hillary will get a counter bump. Tight PV race, but precious few game changing events left. Trump needs to be close before the debates.

David Plouffe, Obama's Campaign Manager, is a very sharp guy and a straight shooter. Was pretty matter of fact about PA. Said Obama won metro Philly by 600K votes in 2012 and would be a shock in HRC won by less than 500K. Even then, Trump can't make up the difference statewide.

Plouffe thinks it comes down to keeping the Obama coalition together and focusing on GOTV, going after suburban GOP women frightening by Trump, and not ceding all Rust Belt Reagan Dems to Trump. Biden joked he'll be living in PA, OH, and MI.

Plouffe's no huge fan of Nate Silver and said there's no path to 270 for Trump without all of FL, PA, and OH. Was struck by how calm and blasé Plouffe was.
 
Crazy: A Presidential candidate had to say the words "I believe in science" as way to promote herself, because half the freaking country still thinks the world is six thousand years old and climate change is a ghost story.
 
CantStandYa said:
Crazy: A Presidential candidate had to say the words "I believe in science" as way to promote herself, because half the freaking country still thinks the world is six thousand years old and climate change is a ghost story.
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Yeah it's unsettling to say the least
 
@natesilver538 FYI: About 80 or 90% of conventions produce discernible convention bounces, Trump's was in maybe the 30th or 40th percentile of those.
 
I think Nate has jumped the shark, when he was obscure he let the data speak for itself. Now he puts things up to drive traffic.
 
ThinkingWithMyDeac said:
I think Nate has jumped the shark, when he was obscure he let the data speak for itself. Now he puts things up to drive traffic.
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He became successful and promotes his website on social media just like thousands of other companies, organizations, and individuals over the last 8 years.
 
For example the tweet he just posted, why did he wait to say that when he could have posted it when he originally posted the Trump poll bump? He waited to drive traffic when people rushed to see which now seems out of context.
 
He may not have run analyses of past convention bumps yet.
 
ThinkingWithMyDeac said:
For example the tweet he just posted, why did he wait to say that when he could have posted it when he originally posted the Trump poll bump? He waited to drive traffic when people rushed to see which now seems out of context.
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Perhaps putting together that data point took longer? Or perhaps you're right, and he wanted to boost traffic post-DNC? Doesn't make the data less sound.
 
No I'm not questioning the data it's still as good as it's ever been, it's the method of putting it out there. I get it he's cashing in, it's like how Bill Simmons went from local blogger to big time but with it he started to suck a little more and more to finally full blown shit.
 
ThinkingWithMyDeac said:
No I'm not questioning the data it's still as good as it's ever been, it's the method of putting it out there. I get it he's cashing in, it's like how Bill Simmons went from local blogger to big time but with it he started to suck a little more and more to finally full blown shit.
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Well yeah, that clearly happened. I'm not sure not the only person who stopped check 538 when they started doing burrito tournaments and such.
 
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