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Which Team Will Finish Last in the ACC? CORRECT ANSWER: BOSTON COLLEGE

In this year's ACCT, the 12 seed will be...

  • Total voters
    142
  • Poll closed .
I think Wake beats GT without Glen Rice. I also think GT beats BC. I think we have a pretty good shot to be the 9 seed since I think we do beat GT and then VPI doesn't beat Clemson and State.
 
"Current KenPom projection:
VT: 5-11
GT: 5-11
BC: 4-12
WF: 3-13"

Of course he's going to be "right" more than he's wrong if he keeps changing his predictions.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
I think Wake beats GT without Glen Rice. I also think GT beats BC. I think we have a pretty good shot to be the 9 seed since I think we do beat GT and then VPI doesn't beat Clemson and State.
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I think since Rice was suspended they nearly won at VT and beat MD, so it might have been addition by subtraction.
 
RJKarl said:
"Current KenPom projection:
VT: 5-11
GT: 5-11
BC: 4-12
WF: 3-13"

Of course he's going to be "right" more than he's wrong if he keeps changing his predictions.
Click to expand...

They change as more games and data enter the system and wins become guaranteed because they actually occurred. Obviously the closer we get to the end of the season the better chance he has of being correct, just like I have a better chance of giving our final conference record now with two games less than I did at the beginning of the conference season when we had played no games.
 
RJKarl said:
"Current KenPom projection:
VT: 5-11
GT: 5-11
BC: 4-12
WF: 3-13"

Of course he's going to be "right" more than he's wrong if he keeps changing his predictions.
Click to expand...


Wow, RJ. Facepalm
avatar41_10.gif
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
They change as more games and data enter the system and wins become guaranteed because they actually occurred. Obviously the closer we get to the end of the season the better chance he has of being correct, just like I have a better chance of giving our final conference record now with two games less than I did at the beginning of the conference season when we had played no games.
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Of course he'll be more accurate at the end when there is less margin of error. If we beat GT, it's likely his projection of two weeks ago will be wrong for all four teams.
 
RJ - Are we really still having to explain KenPom to you?

Its not some guy predicting individual games or outcomes on a whim... Its a mathematical model that reflects probabilities throughout a season.

I really thought you would have at least learned something from this exchange, but I guess not.

RJKarl said:
Make no mistake if he hit 70+% of his 50-55% games, I'd be very impressed.
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IAppreciateIt said:
If he hit 70% on 50-55% games, his system would suck -- the point is to accurately predict the probability a team wins a game, which his system has done with pretty good accuracy.
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vtwhat etc said:
Uh, what?

I think you're missing the premise of what the %'s mean.

In KenPom's system, Team A could have 0 games with more than a 50% chance of a W, but the system could still have them projected to win games.

The %'s are probabilities; not predictions. The system is more impressive if the #'s are close (100 games with a 60% W probability result in the projected winner finishing 60-40) than if it does what you stated you'd be impressed with (70-30 W/L in 50-55% games).
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vtwhat etc said:
So just to be clear... you would be more impressed by (1) a statistical system giving a team a 55% chance of winning 100 individual games, and the team finishing 100-0 than (2) a statistical system giving a team a 55% chance of winning 100 individual games, and the team finishing 55-45.
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RJKarl said:
of course they aren't going to win all the games or even 80% of the games.
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Remaining schedules
FSU (10-4) - @UVA, Clemson
UVA (8-6) - FSU, @MD
Miami (8-6) - @State, BC
State (7-7)- Miami, @VT
Clemson (7-7) - VT, @FSU
MD (6-8)- @ UNC, UVA

Likely finish
3. FSU - 11-5
4. UVA - 10-6
5. State 9-7
6. Miami - 9-7
7. Clemson - 8-8
8. MD - 6-10
 
RJKarl said:
"Current KenPom projection:
VT: 5-11
GT: 5-11
BC: 4-12
WF: 3-13"

Of course he's going to be "right" more than he's wrong if he keeps changing his predictions.
Click to expand...

Oh.
Heavens.
No.
 
TheIshThatSaved WakeForest said:
Haven't read back, but if we beat GT and VT wins 1 or 0 we will be 9th, correct?
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That is correct.

Wake 5-11
VT 5-11
GT- 4-12
BC - 3-13

We beat GT and VT loses one, we own all the tie breakers for 9th (all the head to heads and combo tiebreakers).
 
Deac83 said:
That is correct.

Wake 5-11
VT 5-11
GT- 4-12
BC - 3-13

We beat GT and VT loses one, we own all the tie breakers for 9th (all the head to heads and combo tiebreakers).
Click to expand...

Yea. Despite playing like shit against so many mediocre teams, we did a surprisingly good job this year of taking care of business against teams we should beat. Wofford is the one glaring exception, but that was a team without CJ.
 
If after teams play 26 of 30 games, you get 50% or more wrong of your prediction, then there's a flaw.

Barring a major upset or two, there are a lot people on this thread whose postings were are accurate or more accurate than Kenpom's were for ACC 9th-12th places.
 
For the 100,000th time. They aren't predictions. They are probabilities. If you don't understand the difference by now, nothing in the world is going to help you.
 
What a beautiful, millennial way to get around any outcome. If his "probabilities" turn out to be accurate, he's a genius.

If they don't, then he's only saying this is "probable" and things change.

He can't possibly be wrong and he can look like he knows it all. What a great scam!
 
RJKarl said:
What a beautiful, millennial way to get around any outcome. If his "probabilities" turn out to be accurate, he's a genius.

If they don't, then he's only saying this is "probable" and things change.

He can't possibly be wrong and he can look like he knows it all. What a great scam!
Click to expand...

Facepalm

You should probably just stop. Go take a statistics class, then come back and argue if you still feel the same way.
 
I understand the theory. But I think it's ridiculous to put this guy on a pedestal.
 
Except the purpose of his site isn't to predict individual games. He only started posting full team schedules with projected outcomes a couple years ago as an added feature. Nor does he say you can make money in Vegas using his rankings (nor is that the purpose).

Answer the following question phrased slightly differently than before: Would you be more impressed with a model that gives teams a 60-65% chance of winning won a) 63% of the time of b) 80% of the time? Simply A or B will suffice.
 
RJKarl said:
What a beautiful, millennial way to get around any outcome. If his "probabilities" turn out to be accurate, he's a genius.

If they don't, then he's only saying this is "probable" and things change.

He can't possibly be wrong and he can look like he knows it all. What a great scam!
Click to expand...

RJ... So, by your logic... political polls would be scams because they update themselves to reflect recent events... By your logic, subscribing to a polling service today that still had Rick Perry w/ a 50% shot at getting the republican nomination would be more valuable than one that reflected current data.

Are you starting to see why you're coming off as somebody who doesn't understand predictions versus probabilities?
 
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