Will we be Better or Worse next year?

[stonz]

We now know who our coach will be next season. We know (pretty much) the whole roster.

Will we be better or worse next year?

Note that this is in terms of the larger college basketball landscape. I'm not talking specifically about wins/losses, since we don't even know the schedule yet. Think in terms of KenPom rank if that helps; this year we are going to finish around 127.

 

[ToughLoveDeac]

I think the improvement from the freshman will mostly cancel out the loss of CJ, though I'm being optimistic here.

We'll end up at ~125 in KenPom, miss the NIT, and keep Buzz back for one more year.

 

[wsc8521s]

We won't even sniff the NIT

 

[Wrangor]

I think we will be about the same. Our sophomores will get a little better (assuming none transfer) and Green will help marginally in the post. The loss of CJ will balance out any gains we have made. Our biggest problem is going to be who is going to be our closer. When CJ played well this year we had a chance to win, when he didn't we had zero chance. Someone is going to have to step up to make the big shot. I am not sure who that is going to be. Thomas is not going to be ready offensively to carry the load (he will just get double teamed) and I have yet to see any improvement from McKie in 3 years. We don't have someone to give the ball to at this point. At this point CMM is probably our best hope, but he was dreadfully inconsistent. If CMM can turn into a go to offensive player then we have an outside shot at slight improvement. Our conference schedule will most likely be tougher, and our OOC will be as light as Wellman and Bz can possibly make it. I see a similar record with a ceiling of 17 wins and a floor of 10 wins.

 

[wake20]

Better. There's just no way that the improvement of everyone else on the team is canceled out by CJ. I have hope that Travis will figure things out, but I'm being optimistic there. I just can't imagine that returning 4 starters won't make us better, even if we lose CJ. Madison, Cav, and Moto were 18 for 90 from 3 (20%). They'll improve there and in other areas as well (strength, etc...).

 

[BabyDeac75]

We will not have anyone who can consistently deliver the reliable perimeter threat that CJ provided. We will be undersized again relative to our competition. We will try to run the floor and create turnovers. Our half-court O will once again bog down in late game situations. We wont be able to shoot the ball or rebound with the better teams in the conference.

 

[Wakeforest22890]

We'll be about the same, which is no where close to the NIT.

 

[Ball State Deac]

I think we will be about the same. Our sophomores will get a little better (assuming none transfer) and Green will help marginally in the post. The loss of CJ will balance out any gains we have made. Our biggest problem is going to be who is going to be our closer. When CJ played well this year we had a chance to win, when he didn't we had zero chance. Someone is going to have to step up to make the big shot. I am not sure who that is going to be. Thomas is not going to be ready offensively to carry the load (he will just get double teamed) and I have yet to see any improvement from McKie in 3 years. We don't have someone to give the ball to at this point. At this point CMM is probably our best hope, but he was dreadfully inconsistent. If CMM can turn into a go to offensive player then we have an outside shot at slight improvement. Our conference schedule will most likely be tougher, and our OOC will be as light as Wellman and Bz can possibly make it. I see a similar record with a ceiling of 17 wins and a floor of 10 wins.

Thanks, Wrangor. Was hoping a BB guy would give a breakdown. While I like some of our pieces, I'm left scratching my head as to how this team will get better. I think Devin has the ability to be a Tyler Hansbrough type player with his motor, but Tyler was averaging 18 ppg as a freshman. Granted, I'm sure that was a much better team than we had last year.

Can Jone develop an Ish Smith type tear drop/floater/thing? Because we need someone that can penetrate and we need someone that can shoot from the outside. Plus, another big is critical. I hope Washington develops, but after going through the Woods/Walker mess, I'm not holding my breath.

 

[1976Deac]

I hope we will be better. I anticipate that we will not, and I hope I am wrong.

 

[Ball State Deac]

This is what is really going to be frustrating for some of you. Next year's team is definitely going to be better. I think it will be playing in the post-season, either the NCAA or the NIT. You could see the improvement this year, if you would just open your eyes and close your pre-disposed prejudices. Has it been a painful process? Certainly, but we began to see some of the fruits of the process this past season. So, many posters are going to be in a quandry: They won't be able to publicly admit that Wellman was right when he said that the foundation was being built to improve the program...in the right way....because, due to their own ill-advised and highly public actions, they have now reached the point where they are fully invested in the failure of the program. It's rather sad, in a way.

I'm just looking at this from a basketball standpoint. Who is going to be our outside shooter? Unless Fisher improves dramatically with his ability to get a shot off, it won't be him. Who is our 2nd big guy going to be? Washington/Green? Neither of them have shown much at this point. I think we've got some guys that will be able to get to the rim, but they haven't shown the ability to do that yet. I'm really high on Devin Thomas, but after that, I don't see a whole lot.

 

[HeavyPetter]

This is what is really going to be frustrating for some of you. Next year's team is definitely going to be better. I think it will be playing in the post-season, either the NCAA or the NIT. You could see the improvement this year, if you would just open your eyes and close your pre-disposed prejudices. Has it been a painful process? Certainly, but we began to see some of the fruits of the process this past season. So, many posters are going to be in a quandry: They won't be able to publicly admit that Wellman was right when he said that the foundation was being built to improve the program...in the right way....because, due to their own ill-advised and highly public actions, they have now reached the point where they are fully invested in the failure of the program. It's rather sad, in a way.

Sure they improved, but they still lost four out of their last five, all by double digits, including two to a mediocre Maryland team. Are we supposed to hope that none of our opponents ever improves so that we can eventually reach the same level of mediocrity?

 

[wake20]

CJ and Codi had about the same exact 3pt % their freshman years (32%). CJ only went up to 34% his sophomore year, but then shot up to 42%. Maybe Codi can make that jump more quickly? Also, Travis was a 38% 3pt shooter last year and then struggled this year. Maybe he can find his stroke again.

 

[wsc8521s]

Sure they improved, but they still lost four out of their last five, all by double digits, including two to a mediocre Maryland team. Are we supposed to hope that none of our opponents ever improves so that we can eventually reach the same level of mediocrity?

Especially when there are 3 NCAA tournament teams joining our league.

BKF should appreciate the value of coaching more than anyone

 

[MBDeac08]

Same. We may have a better record because of an easier schedule or some mild improvement, but at the end of the day I don't expect to see our name called out on Selection Sunday (NCAA or NIT show). the league get's better next year jsut by the teams we are importing. Getting from 8 to 13 wins is no problem. Getting from 13 to 18 will be a big challenge. And even if we get to 18 wins, that won't get us in the NCAA and likely won't get us in the NIT. I'm sure the freshman will step up their game next year, but so will other teams.

So will we be better? Yes. Relative to the league (which matters most)? No.

 

[Shorty]

We will not have anyone who can consistently deliver the reliable perimeter threat that CJ provided. We will be undersized again relative to our competition. We will try to run the floor and create turnovers. Our half-court O will once again bog down in late game situations. We wont be able to shoot the ball or rebound with the better teams in the conference.

Other than that we're in good shape.

 

[Wrangor]

The idea that freshman automatically improve when they become sophomores is a myth in college basketball. In fact you see some players that are worse as sophomores. Take Travis McKie as the perfect example. Freshman who get huge amounts of minutes rarely progress all that much between their freshman and sophomore seasons. The freshman that you see 'progress' are usually the ones that get limited time as freshman. And the improvement that is supposedly seen is usually just the product of the increase in exposure. I am not saying that players don't improve, obviously they do, but that improvement is almost always specific to the situation.

Good coaches who have hard working players are able to get improvement. That improvement is usually seen over the full course of a college career not over a summer. You can look at CJ as a great example.

Freshman: 28 minutes a game / 10 points / 38% shooting
Sophomore: 32 minutes a game / 10 points / 38 % shooting
Junior: 35 minutes a game / 16.5 points / 48% shooting
Senior: 33 minutes a game / 15.5 points / 45% shooting

The leap between his sophomore and junior year was significant. But it doesn't mean that he worked any less hard between his freshman/sophomore years or his junior/senior years. CJ was obviously a diligent worker in the offseason, and you can see that over the span of his career. But my bet is that each summer he put in the time, even though results were really only shown for one season of growth.

I would guess that Devin's sophomore numbers won't look all that different from his freshman numbers. He is still going to be leaned upon heavily for our entire post defense and rebounding. The other team is going to focus on him a lot more as our key player. Teams are going to go after him all game trying to get him to pick up fouls. I have some more thoughts on CJ, but don't really pertain to this thought line so I will start a new post for that. Basic point. The players on our team that work hard might show improvement next year, and they might not. It is very difficult to predict. We know that CJ was the key to our wins this year (Ill show a little bit of that later), so we know what we are losing. We are hoping that some of the freshman improve, but we do not know anything. Some may improve, some may digress. Think about this scenario. What happens if Devin goes down with any sort of injury...how are we looking then? I am not sure we would win a game in the ACC next year without Devin in the lineup. Cav, Green, and Moto as your starting frontcourt? Eeesh.

We improved this year from last. But that is expected when you finish last in the league two years in a row. Our team as it is currently constructed is not preparing itself to compete for championships. It simply won't happen. We have some decent players and perhaps a very good player in Devin. Even when this group is a bunch of seniors they will not be competing for the ACC title. Simply won't happen. We are still relying on a power forward to be our post presence. We have a big SF playing PF, and we have a stretch 4 (that still needs seasoning) as the other post defender. Unless Green has really, really improved this red shirt year he is still a project. I am not trying to be a party pooper, but I think that is the realistic look at our team.

 

[RJKarl]

Codi's three point shooting could improve with some work and being off the ball. If his primary job description is scoring rather than ballhandling, his mind may be a little clearer. That being said CJ was one of the most underrated players in the country.

I would hope [Redacted] will have seen Devin's ability to pass, set picks and roll. We could make up for some of CJ's loss by using PnR with Codi and Devin as a mainstay in our offense. If they practice together enough it could be devastating.

Hopefully Overton can come in and get us some points off the bench.

Devin will have to improve a lot over the summer, because he will be the focus of every opponent's offense and defense. Thankfully, he is an incredibly hard worker. The big problem for him is not to get frustrated early in the season while trying to figure out how to counter all attention he will be getting from the other teams.

As everyone has said our biggest is that we are so small. It's one thing to be small and have guys like the Bookers who are wide, but we are small and skinny. That's a losing combination.

It's almost inconceivable that a coach can't fill this need in four recruiting years. It's a massive failure and puts us in a horrible position.

 

[Wrangor]

CJ was the key scorer on our team. He was the only player we could truly go to and get a bucket when we needed one. Here is the problem with thinking that he is easily replaced by the improvement of a sophomore.

CJ Harris in our wins:
FGM: 5.08
FGA: 9.85
FTM: 5.15
FTA: 6.15

FG%: 52%
FT%: 83%
PTS: 17.6


CJ Harris in our losses:
FGM: 4.11
FGA: 10.11
FTM: 3.94
FTA: 4.61

FG%: 41%
FT%: 86%
PTS: 13.8

Pretty much when CJ shot well from the field, we had a chance. When he didn't we lost. The numbers show that we need an outside shooter to be able to score in volume at about a 50% clip for Bz's offense to be effective. I don't see that kind of player coming back next year. CMM is going to be a solid player, but he is not ready to carry the load. Madison is not a scorer, Fischer is a very limited player, and McKie just isn't that great of an offensive player. He is a good player, but he is not a guy that can really create his own looks.

What we will have next year is a bunch of players who are going to be asked to do more than they are capable of doing. When you do that to a team players end up looking a lot worse than they really are. For example I kind of like Cav as a player. I think he could develop into a solid rotational big man by the time he is a junior/senior. But instead of being able to practice, get stronger, and learn how to compete against his teammates, Cav was thrown into a situation that he wasn't ready for. The end result is that he has a pretty tough year statistically. I think we will see a lot of that this coming year. Players looking worse than they should because they simply aren't ready to carry the weight. CJ carried the weight for us this year on the perimeter. Devin carries the weight in the post. I don't see a replacement for CJ, and if Devin were to go down or have any sort of foul trouble we are cooked.

The worst part is that we don't have a big man coming in the next class either, so we will continue to leave Devin out on a limb fighting off the other teams bigs with no real supporting bigs underneath him. [Redacted] has failed to bring in a scorer, and he has failed to bring in legitimate post players (outside of Devin). In college basketball you have to have both of those.

 

[freakadeac]

Best case scenario is NIT for next season. Travis needs to step up.

 

[wsc8521s]

Best case scenario is NIT for next season. Travis needs to step up.

It is not an easy tournament to make. Any team that wins its regular season but doesn't win its tournament or get an at-large bid is auto in the NIT. That's been at least 10 teams each of the last two years.

That leaves 22 spots, which generally are taken up by teams that at least at some point were in the bubble conversation. It is very hard to see us being in that situation