CheesePritchard
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2011
- Messages
- 7,357
- Reaction score
- 395
If anyone could post Law's 50 it would be appreciated. I see he has Swanson at 12, Albies at 15, Allard at 38, and Newcomb at 47.
2017 Atlanta Braves Thread: Acquired Brandon Phillips, Pitchers & Catchers rpt SOON
- Thread starter DeaconBrews
- Start date
- Latest activity Latest activity:
CheesePritchard
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2011
- Messages
- 7,357
- Reaction score
- 395
I had nearly forgotten what a starting LHP was but it is nice to have Allard, Newcomb, and Fried in the system. Wish we had seen a little more progress with Newcomb's command in AA this year.
Yeah, the FanGraphs dislike of Teheran is really strange. Even if he is just a #3 starter (and tough to argue he is not at least that), the contract he is on makes him incredibly valuable to the Braves.
Say Hey Deac
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 25, 2011
- Messages
- 17,786
- Reaction score
- 2,157
Heard on the radio the other day that in Newcomb's last start, he opened the game by walking the first 4 batters, then gave up a grand slam. There should be a name for that.
YoungBuck95
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 30, 2011
- Messages
- 23,311
- Reaction score
- 5,805
Ozzie jumped Dansbae on talking chop's prospect list to #1. Mike Soroka all the way up to #3, ahead of Newcomb at #4. They put Maitan at 5 without him even playing a game.
timdunkandthefunk
Rusty Larue
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2011
- Messages
- 17,094
- Reaction score
- 841
Here at the MLB season's midpoint, and with the deadline to sign draftees coming up on Friday, I put together an update of the top 50 prospects in baseball, given that a good number of players from my Top 100 prospects rankings in January have graduated to the majors.
Law's 2016 Prospect Ranks
Updates
Midseason Top 50Insider | May 24: Top 25Insider | Where top prospects are headedInsider
Top 100 prospects
Prospect Nos. 1-50Insider Nos. 51-100Insider | Complete indexInsider | Just missedInsider
Top 100 video
Youth movementVideo | Don't sleep on ...Video
Impact prospects
Top 25 prospects for 2016 productionInsider
Farm system rankings
1-30 ranksInsider | Braves No. 1, Angels lastVideo
Top-10 prospects by team
All 30 teams
Top prospects by position
Position ranksInsider
More on prospects
Fantasy: Rancel's Top 50 for 2016 seasonInsider | ZiPS projections: Szymborski's Top 100Insider
In ranking these players, I tend to weigh upside or ceiling more heavily than proximity to the majors. The list includes a mixture of players as high as Double-A or Triple-A as well as a few who have signed in recent weeks but have yet to make their professional debuts.
Players who already have passed the cutoff for Rookie of the Year eligibility or are currently on a major league roster (e.g., Josh Bell and Trea Turner) are not included here. Players who have not signed out of the draft are ineligible for the list, which is why Jason Groome, drafted 12th overall by the Red Sox, and Braxton Garrett, drafted seventh overall by the Marlins, are absent.
One important note: I start these lists from scratch every time I assemble them, so it's not as if I've "moved" players up or down from previous rankings. Players change, and the rankings should reflect that, but just because a player is lower now than he was in May or February doesn't mean he's somehow gotten worse. It only means I'm trying to make these rankings as accurate as I can.
Note: The "previous rank" for each player refers to Keith's May rankings; NR stands for "Not Rated" and means the player wasn't among the top 25 in May.
lastname1. Alex Bregman, SS/3B
Houston Astros
Previous rank: 15
Current level: Triple-A
Bregman's power output this year -- 19 homers in 70 games between Double- and Triple-A -- has been way beyond anything I've ever forecasted for him, and even if you (or I) still want to argue that he's not going to have more than average power, how could you reasonably say he won't ever hit 20 homers in a full season when he has done this? He also has played adequate enough defense at shortstop that he'd be an upgrade over Carlos Correa, he has proven very difficult to strike out, he works the count, and he draws walks. He might be peak Dustin Pedroia with the bat, but on the other side of the bag. That's a superstar.
lastname2. Lucas Giolito, RHP
Washington Nationals
Previous rank: 1
Current level: Double-A
One good start, one bad start and it was back to the minors for Giolito because the Nats' rotation is already loaded. He'll be up again the next time there's an injury or if the Nats decide to rest some starters in September. You could see the velocity and the plus curveball, but next time he's up, I'd like to see more two-seamers and changeups, as he was way too four-seamer heavy in his two outings. He's still a future ace, just waiting for an opportunity.
lastname3. Andrew Benintendi, OF
Boston Red Sox
Previous rank: 6
Current level: Double-A
Benintendi destroyed high-A pitching, as you might expect a former SEC player of the year and Golden Spikes winner to do, then moved to Double-A, where he struggled for about 20 minutes. He's hitting .315/.379/.577 since June 1 and .354/.422/.658 since June 15, improving his walk and contact rates and hitting for more power the longer he stays at the level. His hands are super-quick and very strong, and he's fast enough to stay in center field for the near term. With Boston getting a .256/.323/.402 line from left field this year, there's more and more reason to hope we see Benintendi in Fenway before the summer is out.
lastname4. J.P. Crawford, SS
Philadelphia Phillies
Previous rank: 2
Current level: Triple-A
Crawford started a bit slow this year, but the Phillies chose to promote him to Triple-A anyway after he'd played about a full season's worth of games for Reading over the last calendar year. After a very slow start at his new level, he has been on a tear for about a month, taking great at-bats again and making quality contact. He's a difference-maker on defense and has the raw speed to do so on the bases as well, although he hasn't really done so in pro ball and might never become that kind of player. The only real deficiency in his game is power, but he's going to be an All-Star between his defense and ability to get on base.
lastname5. Yoan Moncada, 2B
Boston Red Sox
Previous rank: 12
Current level: Double-A
My word, Moncada is strong. He muscled a changeup out of the park in left field at the Futures Game on Sunday, and he seems incapable of making any type of contact other than "very hard." He runs extremely well for a guy with a football player's build, and in Double-A at least showed a much better approach at the plate than he had in 2015. I don't think he's a lock to stay at second long-term, even if he weren't blocked by Dustin Pedroia. Of all of the near-to-the-majors bats on this list, he'd be my pick for most likely to struggle right out of the gate. But he's an elite physical specimen who has shown himself increasingly adept at hitting this year.
lastname6. Julio Urias, LHP
Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous rank: 3
Current level: Triple-A
Urias is going to graduate from this list with another 13 2/3 major league innings, so this is probably his last appearance on any of my prospect rankings. His major league stints haven't lit the world on fire, but that's neither surprising nor anything to worry about for the long term. He still has the velocity, has already shown the plus changeup really plays that way (including a whiff rate over 20 percent), and he showed he can throw his breaking stuff for strikes already. He's going to have to work on fastball command and just generally on the art of setting up hitters, but I'm as high on his prospects as I was before he ever sniffed the majors.
lastname7. Rafael Devers, 3B
Boston Red Sox
Previous rank: 5
Current level: High-A
It's good to be the Red Sox right now, with a good big league club powered by young stars and four of the best prospects in all of baseball in their farm system. Devers will play this entire year at age 19 and already is in high-A, starting the year at the same level as Benintendi and Moncada, both of whom are two years Devers' senior. After a miserable April, Devers has hit .310/.359/.454 since May 1, striking out in just 16 percent of his plate appearances, and while he's not showing much power, that's about the last thing anyone is concerned about with his bat.
lastname8. Tyler Glasnow, RHP
Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous rank: 4
Current level: Triple-A
Glasnow struggled with command in his first start, but that was to be expected, as he hasn't even gotten to average control yet. It's still huge stuff in a good body (6-foot-8, 225), and his fastball has to look to hitters like it's coming straight down at them like the cavalry stampeding down a hill. His changeup also remains well behind his plus fastball/breaking-ball combination, which hasn't been an issue in Triple-A but could be one in the majors. He's still a future star, but I don't believe he's going to help the Pirates much this year, and those two things are not mutually exclusive.
lastname9. Brendan Rodgers, SS
Colorado Rockies
Previous rank: 9
Current level: Class A
Rodgers has flown a bit under the radar with so many college hitters from last year's draft raking in high-A and Double-A and now even Triple-A, but he has had a great rookie season in hitter-friendly Asheville with the same solid defense at shortstop. He has a huge home/road split, which is typical for hitters in Asheville but still something to consider, especially since he has 13 homers in 68 games and never really projected as a 30-homer bat. That said, he has made contact everywhere, and I think that will be what defines him as a hitter in the long run.
lastname10. Victor Robles, CF
Washington Nationals
Previous rank: 21
Current level: High-A
Robles has come on much faster than I expected, hitting .305/.405/.459 in low-A as a 19-year-old and earning a promotion to high-A that more than anything shows that the Nats believe he's advanced enough at the plate to handle the higher level. He's a four-tool guy already who makes enough hard contact that scouts feel good about him getting to above-average power as he fills out, and if you add power to his speed, on-base skills and plus defense in center, you have a future All-Star.
lastname11. Alex Reyes, RHP
St. Louis Cardinals
Previous rank: 7
Current level: Triple-A
Reyes returned from his very silly suspension for marijuana use and didn't miss a beat, starting out in Triple-A at age 21 and showing a plus fastball and plus changeup with an average-ish curveball. I still don't love the delivery -- he lands hard on his front leg and his release point is a little early, which is why the curveball is just the third pitch -- or the present command, but that's huge upside given the two plus pitches and his relative inexperience.
lastname12. Dansby Swanson, SS
Atlanta Braves
Previous rank: 11
Current level: Double-A
The first overall pick in last year's draft destroyed high-A and moved up to Double-A after just 21 games in the Carolina League, but has been just OK at the higher level, striking out a bit more than you'd like for a player of his skill set -- something that was also a concern at Vanderbilt. He remains an above-average defender at shortstop and has a tantalizing speed/power combination for someone who's going to stay in the middle of the field, and it appears Atlanta has settled on him over Ozzie Albies (ranked at No. 15 below) as their shortstop of the future.
lastname13. Amed Rosario, SS
New York Mets
Previous rank: 23
Current level: Double-A
Rosario returned to high-A to start the year, spent too long at that lower level and finally moved up three weeks ago to Double-A, where he's hitting .424/.462/.610 in 16 games. He has great bat speed that should lead to more power down the road, although right now he's more of a hard-contact hitter who seldom strikes out. He has the quickness and arm strength to stay at shortstop and could be the Mets' solution there at some point in 2017.
lastname14. Anderson Espinoza, RHP
Boston Red Sox
Previous rank: 22
Current level: Class A
The Venezuelan right-hander's first full pro season has gone remarkably well given the fact that he's the youngest pitcher in the Sally League. He didn't allow a home run in his first 14 starts of the year (62 1/3 innings) and has shown adequate control, if not quite command. He'll be up to 99 mph but sits comfortably at 94-95 with both the changeup and curveball flashing plus, with the changeup being the better of the two pitches. There aren't many comparisons for Espinoza because so few pitchers have done what he has done with this kind of stuff at 18, but the fact that Pedro Martinez comps aren't laughable is a pretty good indicator of what Espinoza could be.
lastname15. Ozhaino Albies, SS
Atlanta Braves
Previous rank: 17
Current level: Double-A
As noted above, it looks like Albies will be the one to move to second base with Swanson staying at short, although Albies probably could have remained at his natural position if there wasn't direct competition there. Albies hit .400/.462/.550 in a month-plus in Double-A at age 19 before a quick promotion to Triple-A, where he struggled a bit but was the International League's youngest regular by more than a year. Albies has a short swing that creates a lot of contact without much power, and he's an above-average runner who should add value on the bases. Assuming he's an above-average to plus defender at second -- I see no reason he couldn't be -- he'll pair with Swanson to give Atlanta one of the majors' best double-play combos by this time next year.
lastname16. Orlando Arcia, SS
Milwaukee Brewers
Previous rank: 8
Current level: Triple-A
Arcia might be the biggest disappointment among major prospects this year, hitting just .270/.328/.407 in hitter-friendly Colorado Springs (.232/.275/.333 on the road) and, according to multiple scouts, playing like he's disinterested. Perhaps he believes he belongs in the majors, and coming out of 2015 I thought he did, but it's hard to justify his performance this year even though he has the tools to be much more. I'm not giving up on him, but it's fair to ask for better output given where he plays.
lastname17. Kevin Newman, SS
Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous rank: 19
Current level: Double-A
Newman is now hitting .355/.411/.468 across high-A and Double-A and just had a 17-game hitting streak for Double-A Altoona snapped Sunday, with more walks than strikeouts at both levels this year. Even without any improvement in power, he's a solid big league regular as an average or better defender at short who makes a ton of hard contact, but he has the hand strength to hit for some power if he starts to use his lower half more. I've heard comps on him from Chris Gomez to Mark Loretta to Alan Trammell, but I think there's a good Yunel Escobar (26-plus career WAR and counting) floor here, with the chance for more if some power arrives.
lastname18. Joey Gallo, 3B
Texas Rangers
Previous rank: 10
Current level: Triple-A
There will always be swing-and-miss to Gallo's game, but he keeps making gradual adjustments that bring his contact rate up -- his K rate is down to 29 percent in Triple-A this year after he posted a 39 percent rate at the level last year -- without reducing his power in any way. Of course, Gallo could lose power and still have grade-80 raw power, and if he hits only .230-.240 in the majors, he's still going to be an impact bat with 30-plus homers and a respectable OBP. He also has an 80 arm, but third base is blocked in Texas, and Gallo may be better suited to right field or first base anyway.
lastname19. Austin Meadows, CF
Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A
Meadows missed the Futures Game because of a minor hamstring injury that has kept him out the past two weeks, but he had just started to come around after a 21-PA hitless streak right after he reached Triple-A. Meadows is a four-tool guy who can hit, has power and speed, and throws well enough to play right field, although I think center field might be a stretch, and there's no way he's playing that over Starling Marte or Gregory Polanco. Meadows' emergence this year should make it easier for the Pirates to entertain offers for Andrew McCutchen, who's going to be too expensive for them to retain going forward anyway.
lastname20. Manuel Margot, CF
San Diego Padres
Previous rank: Honorable mention
Current level: Triple-A
Margot is more about polish and skills than raw tools, but he has enough of the latter to profile as at least a solid-average everyday player. He's a very instinctive defender in center who covers more ground than his above-average speed might imply because his reads are so good. He's very disciplined at the plate -- you might have seen the walk he worked off Ryne Stanek in the Futures Game, fouling off three fastballs at 99 mph in an 11-pitch plate appearance -- and has doubles power that should play better in Petco than his fringe-average raw. As soon as there's an opening for him in San Diego, he's ready to come up.
lastname21. Lewis Brinson, CF
Texas Rangers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
Brinson got off to a lousy start in Double-A this year, although he wasn't striking out like crazy as he did in low-A, then he missed three weeks with a shoulder injury. Apparently while he was out, he found some BABIP luck, as he has gone 11-for-26 since returning, with 2 triples and 3 homers. Brinson is an elite defensive center fielder who doesn't have to hit much to have value in the majors and who has All-Star potential if he hits enough to get to his plus-plus power. He'll play the rest of this year at age 22, and if he keeps his contact rate up, he'll be someone's top prospect this winter.
lastname22. Braden Shipley, RHP
Arizona Diamondbacks
Previous rank: Honorable mention
Current level: Triple-A
Shipley has a swing-and-miss changeup and above-average curveball, but has found success this year in Triple-A by trying to miss fewer bats, generating ground balls instead -- which he has done well, posting a 46 percent ground-ball rate and another 6 percent going for popups. Shipley's four-seamer can reach 95 but sits more average, and the key for him has been working down in the zone more effectively. He's a great athlete and former position player with a very clean delivery, and while I don't think there's huge upside here, he has a high floor and should be able to pitch in the majors this summer.
lastname23. Aaron Judge, OF
New York Yankees
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A
If Judge hits at all, he'll be a monster, and he has made some progress in his plate coverage this year in Triple-A. Judge, 6-foot-7 and 275 pounds, has a lot of strike zone to cover, and had a hard time handling pitches in on his hands without leaving a gap in his coverage on the outside corner. He has made some adjustments in Triple-A and brought his strikeout rate down to 23 percent on the season and just 19.6 percent since June 1, enough signs of progress that he could come up to the majors if and when the Yankees deal Carlos Beltran.
lastname24. Jose Berrios, RHP
Minnesota Twins
Previous rank: In majors
Current level: Triple-A
The Twins gave up on Berrios fast this year, after four rough outings in which he struggled to throw strikes, which is about the last thing I expected from him. He's normally a command and control guy, with a flat but hard fastball and above-average pitches in the curveball and changeup. I'm not sure what the plan is for Berrios, but I'd give him Tommy Milone's rotation spot right now and let him work on fastball command against major league hitters, because he has little to nothing left to learn in Triple-A.
lastname25. Franklin Barreto, SS
Oakland Athletics
Previous rank: Honorable mention
Current level: Double-A
Oakland's hopes for a good return on the Josh Donaldson trade now fall squarely on Barreto's shoulders, perhaps a bit much to ask of the Texas League's second-youngest regular. After a slow start, Barreto's bat has come around -- if you split his season so far into halves, he's hitting .299/.377/.465 since that midpoint – and he's a plus defender at short with good instincts and more than enough arm. He's not a quick-to-the-majors guy but should be ready for a cup of coffee in Oakland by the end of 2017.
lastname26. Gleyber Torres, SS
Chicago Cubs
Previous rank: 15
Current level: High-A
Torres has put on some weight, and his body isn't as agile as it was a year ago, but he's hitting .270/.348/.423 as one of only three teenage regulars in the Carolina League, and doing so even though his home park is death on power. (Eight of his nine homers have come on the road.) Torres might not be a lock to stay at short any more, unless he gets his conditioning back under control, but he continues to show a decent eye at the plate and enough ability to make hard contact that he'll profile well at another position. I'd still like to see more consistency in his game at the plate, but that might be a little unfair to a guy who's the same age as most college freshmen.
lastname27. Ian Happ, 2B
Chicago Cubs
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
Happ is yet another hitter from the 2015 draft class who has gotten off to a huge start in pro ball. He's hitting .308/.406/.487 on the year between High-A and Double-A, and hitting better after the promotion, in part because he got away from pitcher-friendly Myrtle Beach. The Cubs continue to play Happ a little in the outfield to keep some flexibility, but he's primarily a second baseman now and will be at least average there. Given his patience and solid-average power, that's at worst an everyday player, with a good chance for more, given his feel to hit.
28. Willy Adames, SS
Tampa Bay Rays
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
Adames came to the Rays in the David Price trade two years ago and has improved each year in their system. He's hitting .266/.365/.439 in Double-A at age 20 and still holding his own at shortstop. Because he isn't built like a typical shortstop and doesn't have that kind of lateral agility, I don't know if he stays there long-term, but his hands are good and his arm is more than sufficient. It's becoming increasingly clear, however, that his OBP/power combination will be good enough for any position.
29. Eloy Jimenez, OF
Chicago Cubs
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Class A
Signed in the same July 2 class as Torres, Eloy has been the Cubs' biggest breakout prospect this year, showing that the system, which I ranked fourth coming into 2016, is far from depleted even after last year's wave of promotions. Eloy, still just 19 years old, is smashing the Midwest League, posting a .332/.372/.527 line, and he showed off his great range in right field and huge raw power in Sunday's Futures Game. He's tied for second in the league in homers and is fourth in batting average and slugging, so while he might see his power dip next year in Myrtle Beach, he has the potential to be the Cubs' next great middle-of-the-order bat.
lastname30. Trent Clark, OF
Milwaukee Brewers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Class A
The Brewers' first-round pick from 2015 has missed time twice now with hamstring injuries. He has just 118 plate appearances this year and a .227/.359/.412 when he has played, but the patience is there and no one (myself included) seems to have any doubts about his ability to hit for average. Clark has played center field when he has been active this year but is much more likely to end up in a corner, where his potential with the bat -- high average/OBP, 15-20 homers -- would still make him an above-average regular.
lastname31. David Dahl, OF
Colorado Rockies
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A
Dahl missed about half of 2015 after injuring his spleen in an on-field collision, the second time in three full years he'd spent much of the season on the disabled list, but his return to health this year has marked a real breakout for him. He has posted career highs already in walks and homers and earned a promotion to Triple-A Albuquerque, a hitter's paradise, just before the All-Star break. He's already 13-for-26 with two doubles since the move up, and because he has to go on the 40-man roster after the season anyway, he should be in line for a September call-up to set him for an everyday job next year.
lastname32. Kyle Tucker, OF
Houston Astros
Previous rank: Honorable mention
Current level: Class A
Tucker's power hasn't been there in his first full pro season, but everything else has been, including a high contact rate and a surprising 28 steals in 34 attempts. Tucker's not that fast, but there's also future power to come as he fills out physically, which will probably also necessitate a move to right field. He has even raked against left-handed pitching, with just 13 K's in 75 at-bats. That's a great sign, albeit in a small sample, for a left-handed hitter in his first year out of high school.
33. Corey Ray, OF
Milwaukee Brewers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: High-A
The Brewers sent Ray, the fifth overall pick in last month's Rule 4 draft, right to High-A Brevard County, a very aggressive move for the draft's top prospect but someone who had minor concerns about his game, including his propensity to swing and miss. He's a power/speed guy with a good swing and feel to hit. The primary questions facing him are about his defense, which never measured up to his physical tools in center or even in limited reps in left for the University of Louisville.
lastname34. Clint Frazier, OF
Cleveland Indians
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
"Azazello" started to come on in the second half of 2015 and has carried it over into this year, continuing to cut his strikeouts and show more power, although he's hitting the ball on the ground too often for someone with his otherworldly bat speed. He has played in all three outfield spots and will probably end up in left field, so the power needs to be there for him to reach his ceiling as an above-average regular.
35. Mickey Moniak, OF
Philadelphia Phillies
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Rookie
The 2016 draft's first overall pick, Moniak is considered a high-floor high school bat because of his excellent feel for contact and the likelihood that he stays in center field. He's already out in the Gulf Coast League and could break camp with full-season Lakewood next year if he's as polished as scouts believe. His no-stride setup and narrow frame might limit his ceiling because he's unlikely to hit for average power.
lastname36. Gary Sanchez, C
New York Yankees
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A
From nearly playing himself off the prospect map with questions about his work ethic and his glove behind the plate, Sanchez has re-established his value. He has become sort of adequate behind the plate and hit for increasing power the last two years, with 18 homers in 93 games last year and nine in 56 games this year, so a projection of 25-plus homers in the majors is reasonable. Behind the plate, Sanchez has a cannon and likes to show it off, nailing 39 percent of runners since the start of 2015, so between that and the power, it won't take much to make him an average regular.
lastname37. Alex Verdugo, OF
Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
A former two-way player from Tucson, Verdugo continues to astound at the plate, starting his second full pro season out of high school in Double-A and hitting .293/.354/.439 with just a 13.5 percent strikeout rate as the Texas League's youngest regular. Verdugo still plays more in center than in right, but I think he ends up at right, where he has plenty of arm and should have above-average range. He's already shown he can hit for average and contact, but there's more power on the way as well, with All-Star upside and the promise of major league value as early as the end of 2017.
lastname38. Kolby Allard, LHP
Atlanta Braves
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Rookie
Allard is fully recovered from the back injury that has limited him since he signed last July, and he is back to throwing in the low 90s, topping at 96 mph, with a plus curveball and above-average control. He's dominating the short-season Appy League after three starts in Low-A Rome, two bad, one good. The key for Allard, aside from health, will be staying on top of the ball to generate more ground balls, currently at 45.6 percent on the season as a whole. If he's done with his back troubles, there's No. 2 starter upside.
lastname39. Robert Stephenson, RHP
Cincinnati Reds
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A
The stuff is good, the command is not. Stephenson will show three plus pitches if you get him on the right day, including the new-ish changeup that has him once again dominating left-handed hitters, so it's a starter package but without enough strikes. Harnessing that stuff is the Reds' main developmental challenge with their top prospects, although if he can't do it as a starter he'd be a potentially devastating reliever.
lastname40. Jorge Alfaro, C
Philadelphia Phillies
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
Alfaro is back from the ankle injury that wiped out three-quarters of his 2015 season, now hitting .295/.335/.498 for Double-A Reading while throwing out 46 percent of would-be base stealers. He doesn't walk enough, although he has drawn nine walks already in July because he has been possessed by an incubus. While his receiving isn't great, he's down to just three passed balls in 60 games after having 56 in 214 games from 2013-15. I think he stays behind the plate and makes enough contact for a .300ish OBP and 20-plus homers.
lastname41. Chance Sisco, C
Baltimore Orioles
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
Sisco is hitting .307/.397/.398 as a 21-year-old in Double-A. A solid-average receiver now in just his fourth year at the position, he showed that there's some latent power in that bat with his opposite-field home run in Sunday's Futures Game. He rarely strikes out, and I think he still has more growth to come behind the plate, with his average arm his only real deficiency. With Matt Wieters likely to leave in free agency, Sisco is the Orioles' catcher of the future, probably starting in the middle of 2017.
lastname42. Raul Mondesi, SS
Kansas City Royals
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A
I don't get why Mondesi is already in Triple-A. He came back from his PED suspension, played 29 games in Double-A, did fine (.259/.331/.448), and moved up to Omaha even though he won't turn 21 until the end of this month. He's still far more potential than production because he has always been young for where he has played, with outstanding range at short, plus speed, and great instincts at the position. The bat is still well behind his glove, however, and he needs more reps before he'll be ready to help the major league club. What's the rush?
lastname43. Blake Rutherford, OF
New York Yankees
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Rookie
The 18th overall pick in last month's Rule 4 draft, Rutherford started his pro career 0-for-10, which I'm sure had a few people in the Bronx and Tampa quietly wringing their hands, but he has had a few hits since then, and all seems right with the world. He's already 19, so there is some more pressure for him to succeed this year so he can break with a full-season club in April, but he's an advanced enough hitter with above-average present power and should be able to do so, given how well he performed against good competition last summer.
lastname44. Dom Smith, 1B
New York Mets
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
Smith showed off some of his raw power with a little run in late June that helped him set a new career high in homers, but overall his line of .277/.340/.436 is less than I expect for his Double-A debut. He's still an outstanding defender at first and has no trouble making contact, but he needs to get himself into advantageous counts more frequently to get to that power, whether it's for doubles or homers. On the other hand, he's the youngest regular in the Eastern League, younger than 2016 first-rounder Corey Ray and just two weeks older than Nick Senzel, and he's already more than holding his own in Double-A, so there's still cause for optimism.
45. Michael Kopech, RHP
Boston Red Sox
Previous rank: NR
Current level: High-A
Well, he might not be the brightest bulb in the chandelier, having missed half of last year because of a PED suspension and half of this year after getting into a fight with a teammate, but he's regularly hitting 100 mph with his fastball as a starter now and topped out at 103 already since his return. He complements that with a breaking ball that will flash plus but isn't consistent yet. It's a frighteningly electric arm, because no one who has thrown this hard has lasted as a starter, but Kopech is a good athlete in top-flight condition, so if anyone can hold it together in the rotation it might be him.
lastname46. Luis Ortiz, RHP
Texas Rangers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
Ortiz has been very good when healthy, and since the Rangers' High-A affiliate plays in a zero-gravity, high-offense environment, they chose to bump Ortiz up to Double-A after just six starts in High Desert. Ortiz won't turn 21 until September and shows an above-average fastball, plus changeup, and above-average control already. He's going to have to work to keep his weight at a manageable level, and he needs to continue to refine the breaking ball so he has a real out pitch for right-handed batters. He's still six months younger than 2016 first-rounder A.J. Puk and has only 135 career innings in pro ball, so any success he has this year in Double-A is a positive.
lastname47. Sean Newcomb, LHP
Atlanta Braves
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
Like Stephenson, Newcomb has three above-average pitches but just can't throw enough strikes to be as effective as the stuff says he should be. Newcomb's arm action is so easy that it's hard to see how to improve it; I don't think he consistently gets to the same release point, but it's hard to say how he can do that when nothing's actually wrong with the delivery. His walk rates have been consistent since he signed, and he bottomed out in his last outing, when he walked four guys in the first inning and had to be removed from the game. He's still here because a lefty throwing up to 96-97 mph with this kind of repertoire and history of health is a rare beast.
lastname48. Cody Bellinger, 1B
Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
Bellinger, who turned 21 on Wednesday, is a plus-plus defender at first who roped 30 homers in the Cal League last year but has traded in some power for more contact in his first year at Double-A. Still just 20 years old, he has cut his strikeout rate to 22 percent from 28, but I think I'd take a few more whiffs for more power, because he's unlikely to ever be a big hitter for average. He's among the league's youngest regulars -- but a few months older than teammate Alex Verdugo -- and has a carrying tool in the defense, giving him a high floor and the potential to be an impact bat in the middle-third of a lineup if that power returns.
49. Yohander Mendez, LHP
Texas Rangers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A
Another Venezuelan lefty to follow in Martin Perez's footsteps, Mendez had never thrown more than 66 innings in a season before this year. He's already at 72 innings and counting, pitching in Double-A at age 21. He has come on this year with a fastball up to 93 mph, a plus change, and a solid-average breaking ball, with no appreciable platoon split either. He's a potential mid-rotation starter, if not better, once he shows he can handle a full season's workload.
lastname50. Jorge Mateo, SS
New York Yankees
Previous rank: 25
Current level: High-A
Mateo has been suspended two weeks for an undisclosed team-policy violation, but that aside, it's time for him to start performing up to the level of his tools. Mateo's a plus runner, at least a 70 and frequently showing 80 speed, which raises the question of why he's not always showing it. He has a compact swing that should lead to more contact, but he strikes out too often and the contact he makes isn't hard. He could stay at short, but the Yankees have had him play a little second base with the growth in Didi Gregorius' game this year. If the rumor that Mateo wanted a promotion to Double-A is true, that's great, but he needs to understand that hitting .266/.323/.396 won't get him there. Harder contact and all-the-time effort will.
Honorable mention
Kohl Stewart, RHP, Twins
Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Rockies
A.J. Puk, LHP, A's
Brent Honeywell, RHP, Rays
Nick Senzel, 3B, Reds
Tyler Jay, LHP, Twins
Hunter Harvey, RHP, Orioles
Law's 2016 Prospect Ranks
Updates
Midseason Top 50Insider | May 24: Top 25Insider | Where top prospects are headedInsider
Top 100 prospects
Prospect Nos. 1-50Insider Nos. 51-100Insider | Complete indexInsider | Just missedInsider
Top 100 video
Youth movementVideo | Don't sleep on ...Video
Impact prospects
Top 25 prospects for 2016 productionInsider
Farm system rankings
1-30 ranksInsider | Braves No. 1, Angels lastVideo
Top-10 prospects by team
All 30 teams
Top prospects by position
Position ranksInsider
More on prospects
Fantasy: Rancel's Top 50 for 2016 seasonInsider | ZiPS projections: Szymborski's Top 100Insider
In ranking these players, I tend to weigh upside or ceiling more heavily than proximity to the majors. The list includes a mixture of players as high as Double-A or Triple-A as well as a few who have signed in recent weeks but have yet to make their professional debuts.
Players who already have passed the cutoff for Rookie of the Year eligibility or are currently on a major league roster (e.g., Josh Bell and Trea Turner) are not included here. Players who have not signed out of the draft are ineligible for the list, which is why Jason Groome, drafted 12th overall by the Red Sox, and Braxton Garrett, drafted seventh overall by the Marlins, are absent.
One important note: I start these lists from scratch every time I assemble them, so it's not as if I've "moved" players up or down from previous rankings. Players change, and the rankings should reflect that, but just because a player is lower now than he was in May or February doesn't mean he's somehow gotten worse. It only means I'm trying to make these rankings as accurate as I can.
Note: The "previous rank" for each player refers to Keith's May rankings; NR stands for "Not Rated" and means the player wasn't among the top 25 in May.
lastname1. Alex Bregman, SS/3B
Houston Astros
Previous rank: 15
Current level: Triple-A
Bregman's power output this year -- 19 homers in 70 games between Double- and Triple-A -- has been way beyond anything I've ever forecasted for him, and even if you (or I) still want to argue that he's not going to have more than average power, how could you reasonably say he won't ever hit 20 homers in a full season when he has done this? He also has played adequate enough defense at shortstop that he'd be an upgrade over Carlos Correa, he has proven very difficult to strike out, he works the count, and he draws walks. He might be peak Dustin Pedroia with the bat, but on the other side of the bag. That's a superstar.
lastname2. Lucas Giolito, RHP
Washington Nationals
Previous rank: 1
Current level: Double-A
One good start, one bad start and it was back to the minors for Giolito because the Nats' rotation is already loaded. He'll be up again the next time there's an injury or if the Nats decide to rest some starters in September. You could see the velocity and the plus curveball, but next time he's up, I'd like to see more two-seamers and changeups, as he was way too four-seamer heavy in his two outings. He's still a future ace, just waiting for an opportunity.
lastname3. Andrew Benintendi, OF
Boston Red Sox
Previous rank: 6
Current level: Double-A
Benintendi destroyed high-A pitching, as you might expect a former SEC player of the year and Golden Spikes winner to do, then moved to Double-A, where he struggled for about 20 minutes. He's hitting .315/.379/.577 since June 1 and .354/.422/.658 since June 15, improving his walk and contact rates and hitting for more power the longer he stays at the level. His hands are super-quick and very strong, and he's fast enough to stay in center field for the near term. With Boston getting a .256/.323/.402 line from left field this year, there's more and more reason to hope we see Benintendi in Fenway before the summer is out.
lastname4. J.P. Crawford, SS
Philadelphia Phillies
Previous rank: 2
Current level: Triple-A
Crawford started a bit slow this year, but the Phillies chose to promote him to Triple-A anyway after he'd played about a full season's worth of games for Reading over the last calendar year. After a very slow start at his new level, he has been on a tear for about a month, taking great at-bats again and making quality contact. He's a difference-maker on defense and has the raw speed to do so on the bases as well, although he hasn't really done so in pro ball and might never become that kind of player. The only real deficiency in his game is power, but he's going to be an All-Star between his defense and ability to get on base.
lastname5. Yoan Moncada, 2B
Boston Red Sox
Previous rank: 12
Current level: Double-A
My word, Moncada is strong. He muscled a changeup out of the park in left field at the Futures Game on Sunday, and he seems incapable of making any type of contact other than "very hard." He runs extremely well for a guy with a football player's build, and in Double-A at least showed a much better approach at the plate than he had in 2015. I don't think he's a lock to stay at second long-term, even if he weren't blocked by Dustin Pedroia. Of all of the near-to-the-majors bats on this list, he'd be my pick for most likely to struggle right out of the gate. But he's an elite physical specimen who has shown himself increasingly adept at hitting this year.
lastname6. Julio Urias, LHP
Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous rank: 3
Current level: Triple-A
Urias is going to graduate from this list with another 13 2/3 major league innings, so this is probably his last appearance on any of my prospect rankings. His major league stints haven't lit the world on fire, but that's neither surprising nor anything to worry about for the long term. He still has the velocity, has already shown the plus changeup really plays that way (including a whiff rate over 20 percent), and he showed he can throw his breaking stuff for strikes already. He's going to have to work on fastball command and just generally on the art of setting up hitters, but I'm as high on his prospects as I was before he ever sniffed the majors.
lastname7. Rafael Devers, 3B
Boston Red Sox
Previous rank: 5
Current level: High-A
It's good to be the Red Sox right now, with a good big league club powered by young stars and four of the best prospects in all of baseball in their farm system. Devers will play this entire year at age 19 and already is in high-A, starting the year at the same level as Benintendi and Moncada, both of whom are two years Devers' senior. After a miserable April, Devers has hit .310/.359/.454 since May 1, striking out in just 16 percent of his plate appearances, and while he's not showing much power, that's about the last thing anyone is concerned about with his bat.
lastname8. Tyler Glasnow, RHP
Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous rank: 4
Current level: Triple-A
Glasnow struggled with command in his first start, but that was to be expected, as he hasn't even gotten to average control yet. It's still huge stuff in a good body (6-foot-8, 225), and his fastball has to look to hitters like it's coming straight down at them like the cavalry stampeding down a hill. His changeup also remains well behind his plus fastball/breaking-ball combination, which hasn't been an issue in Triple-A but could be one in the majors. He's still a future star, but I don't believe he's going to help the Pirates much this year, and those two things are not mutually exclusive.
lastname9. Brendan Rodgers, SS
Colorado Rockies
Previous rank: 9
Current level: Class A
Rodgers has flown a bit under the radar with so many college hitters from last year's draft raking in high-A and Double-A and now even Triple-A, but he has had a great rookie season in hitter-friendly Asheville with the same solid defense at shortstop. He has a huge home/road split, which is typical for hitters in Asheville but still something to consider, especially since he has 13 homers in 68 games and never really projected as a 30-homer bat. That said, he has made contact everywhere, and I think that will be what defines him as a hitter in the long run.
lastname10. Victor Robles, CF
Washington Nationals
Previous rank: 21
Current level: High-A
Robles has come on much faster than I expected, hitting .305/.405/.459 in low-A as a 19-year-old and earning a promotion to high-A that more than anything shows that the Nats believe he's advanced enough at the plate to handle the higher level. He's a four-tool guy already who makes enough hard contact that scouts feel good about him getting to above-average power as he fills out, and if you add power to his speed, on-base skills and plus defense in center, you have a future All-Star.
lastname11. Alex Reyes, RHP
St. Louis Cardinals
Previous rank: 7
Current level: Triple-A
Reyes returned from his very silly suspension for marijuana use and didn't miss a beat, starting out in Triple-A at age 21 and showing a plus fastball and plus changeup with an average-ish curveball. I still don't love the delivery -- he lands hard on his front leg and his release point is a little early, which is why the curveball is just the third pitch -- or the present command, but that's huge upside given the two plus pitches and his relative inexperience.
lastname12. Dansby Swanson, SS
Atlanta Braves
Previous rank: 11
Current level: Double-A
The first overall pick in last year's draft destroyed high-A and moved up to Double-A after just 21 games in the Carolina League, but has been just OK at the higher level, striking out a bit more than you'd like for a player of his skill set -- something that was also a concern at Vanderbilt. He remains an above-average defender at shortstop and has a tantalizing speed/power combination for someone who's going to stay in the middle of the field, and it appears Atlanta has settled on him over Ozzie Albies (ranked at No. 15 below) as their shortstop of the future.
lastname13. Amed Rosario, SS
New York Mets
Previous rank: 23
Current level: Double-A
Rosario returned to high-A to start the year, spent too long at that lower level and finally moved up three weeks ago to Double-A, where he's hitting .424/.462/.610 in 16 games. He has great bat speed that should lead to more power down the road, although right now he's more of a hard-contact hitter who seldom strikes out. He has the quickness and arm strength to stay at shortstop and could be the Mets' solution there at some point in 2017.
lastname14. Anderson Espinoza, RHP
Boston Red Sox
Previous rank: 22
Current level: Class A
The Venezuelan right-hander's first full pro season has gone remarkably well given the fact that he's the youngest pitcher in the Sally League. He didn't allow a home run in his first 14 starts of the year (62 1/3 innings) and has shown adequate control, if not quite command. He'll be up to 99 mph but sits comfortably at 94-95 with both the changeup and curveball flashing plus, with the changeup being the better of the two pitches. There aren't many comparisons for Espinoza because so few pitchers have done what he has done with this kind of stuff at 18, but the fact that Pedro Martinez comps aren't laughable is a pretty good indicator of what Espinoza could be.
lastname15. Ozhaino Albies, SS
Atlanta Braves
Previous rank: 17
Current level: Double-A
As noted above, it looks like Albies will be the one to move to second base with Swanson staying at short, although Albies probably could have remained at his natural position if there wasn't direct competition there. Albies hit .400/.462/.550 in a month-plus in Double-A at age 19 before a quick promotion to Triple-A, where he struggled a bit but was the International League's youngest regular by more than a year. Albies has a short swing that creates a lot of contact without much power, and he's an above-average runner who should add value on the bases. Assuming he's an above-average to plus defender at second -- I see no reason he couldn't be -- he'll pair with Swanson to give Atlanta one of the majors' best double-play combos by this time next year.
lastname16. Orlando Arcia, SS
Milwaukee Brewers
Previous rank: 8
Current level: Triple-A
Arcia might be the biggest disappointment among major prospects this year, hitting just .270/.328/.407 in hitter-friendly Colorado Springs (.232/.275/.333 on the road) and, according to multiple scouts, playing like he's disinterested. Perhaps he believes he belongs in the majors, and coming out of 2015 I thought he did, but it's hard to justify his performance this year even though he has the tools to be much more. I'm not giving up on him, but it's fair to ask for better output given where he plays.
lastname17. Kevin Newman, SS
Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous rank: 19
Current level: Double-A
Newman is now hitting .355/.411/.468 across high-A and Double-A and just had a 17-game hitting streak for Double-A Altoona snapped Sunday, with more walks than strikeouts at both levels this year. Even without any improvement in power, he's a solid big league regular as an average or better defender at short who makes a ton of hard contact, but he has the hand strength to hit for some power if he starts to use his lower half more. I've heard comps on him from Chris Gomez to Mark Loretta to Alan Trammell, but I think there's a good Yunel Escobar (26-plus career WAR and counting) floor here, with the chance for more if some power arrives.
lastname18. Joey Gallo, 3B
Texas Rangers
Previous rank: 10
Current level: Triple-A
There will always be swing-and-miss to Gallo's game, but he keeps making gradual adjustments that bring his contact rate up -- his K rate is down to 29 percent in Triple-A this year after he posted a 39 percent rate at the level last year -- without reducing his power in any way. Of course, Gallo could lose power and still have grade-80 raw power, and if he hits only .230-.240 in the majors, he's still going to be an impact bat with 30-plus homers and a respectable OBP. He also has an 80 arm, but third base is blocked in Texas, and Gallo may be better suited to right field or first base anyway.
lastname19. Austin Meadows, CF
Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A
Meadows missed the Futures Game because of a minor hamstring injury that has kept him out the past two weeks, but he had just started to come around after a 21-PA hitless streak right after he reached Triple-A. Meadows is a four-tool guy who can hit, has power and speed, and throws well enough to play right field, although I think center field might be a stretch, and there's no way he's playing that over Starling Marte or Gregory Polanco. Meadows' emergence this year should make it easier for the Pirates to entertain offers for Andrew McCutchen, who's going to be too expensive for them to retain going forward anyway.
lastname20. Manuel Margot, CF
San Diego Padres
Previous rank: Honorable mention
Current level: Triple-A
Margot is more about polish and skills than raw tools, but he has enough of the latter to profile as at least a solid-average everyday player. He's a very instinctive defender in center who covers more ground than his above-average speed might imply because his reads are so good. He's very disciplined at the plate -- you might have seen the walk he worked off Ryne Stanek in the Futures Game, fouling off three fastballs at 99 mph in an 11-pitch plate appearance -- and has doubles power that should play better in Petco than his fringe-average raw. As soon as there's an opening for him in San Diego, he's ready to come up.
lastname21. Lewis Brinson, CF
Texas Rangers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
Brinson got off to a lousy start in Double-A this year, although he wasn't striking out like crazy as he did in low-A, then he missed three weeks with a shoulder injury. Apparently while he was out, he found some BABIP luck, as he has gone 11-for-26 since returning, with 2 triples and 3 homers. Brinson is an elite defensive center fielder who doesn't have to hit much to have value in the majors and who has All-Star potential if he hits enough to get to his plus-plus power. He'll play the rest of this year at age 22, and if he keeps his contact rate up, he'll be someone's top prospect this winter.
lastname22. Braden Shipley, RHP
Arizona Diamondbacks
Previous rank: Honorable mention
Current level: Triple-A
Shipley has a swing-and-miss changeup and above-average curveball, but has found success this year in Triple-A by trying to miss fewer bats, generating ground balls instead -- which he has done well, posting a 46 percent ground-ball rate and another 6 percent going for popups. Shipley's four-seamer can reach 95 but sits more average, and the key for him has been working down in the zone more effectively. He's a great athlete and former position player with a very clean delivery, and while I don't think there's huge upside here, he has a high floor and should be able to pitch in the majors this summer.
lastname23. Aaron Judge, OF
New York Yankees
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A
If Judge hits at all, he'll be a monster, and he has made some progress in his plate coverage this year in Triple-A. Judge, 6-foot-7 and 275 pounds, has a lot of strike zone to cover, and had a hard time handling pitches in on his hands without leaving a gap in his coverage on the outside corner. He has made some adjustments in Triple-A and brought his strikeout rate down to 23 percent on the season and just 19.6 percent since June 1, enough signs of progress that he could come up to the majors if and when the Yankees deal Carlos Beltran.
lastname24. Jose Berrios, RHP
Minnesota Twins
Previous rank: In majors
Current level: Triple-A
The Twins gave up on Berrios fast this year, after four rough outings in which he struggled to throw strikes, which is about the last thing I expected from him. He's normally a command and control guy, with a flat but hard fastball and above-average pitches in the curveball and changeup. I'm not sure what the plan is for Berrios, but I'd give him Tommy Milone's rotation spot right now and let him work on fastball command against major league hitters, because he has little to nothing left to learn in Triple-A.
lastname25. Franklin Barreto, SS
Oakland Athletics
Previous rank: Honorable mention
Current level: Double-A
Oakland's hopes for a good return on the Josh Donaldson trade now fall squarely on Barreto's shoulders, perhaps a bit much to ask of the Texas League's second-youngest regular. After a slow start, Barreto's bat has come around -- if you split his season so far into halves, he's hitting .299/.377/.465 since that midpoint – and he's a plus defender at short with good instincts and more than enough arm. He's not a quick-to-the-majors guy but should be ready for a cup of coffee in Oakland by the end of 2017.
lastname26. Gleyber Torres, SS
Chicago Cubs
Previous rank: 15
Current level: High-A
Torres has put on some weight, and his body isn't as agile as it was a year ago, but he's hitting .270/.348/.423 as one of only three teenage regulars in the Carolina League, and doing so even though his home park is death on power. (Eight of his nine homers have come on the road.) Torres might not be a lock to stay at short any more, unless he gets his conditioning back under control, but he continues to show a decent eye at the plate and enough ability to make hard contact that he'll profile well at another position. I'd still like to see more consistency in his game at the plate, but that might be a little unfair to a guy who's the same age as most college freshmen.
lastname27. Ian Happ, 2B
Chicago Cubs
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
Happ is yet another hitter from the 2015 draft class who has gotten off to a huge start in pro ball. He's hitting .308/.406/.487 on the year between High-A and Double-A, and hitting better after the promotion, in part because he got away from pitcher-friendly Myrtle Beach. The Cubs continue to play Happ a little in the outfield to keep some flexibility, but he's primarily a second baseman now and will be at least average there. Given his patience and solid-average power, that's at worst an everyday player, with a good chance for more, given his feel to hit.
28. Willy Adames, SS
Tampa Bay Rays
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
Adames came to the Rays in the David Price trade two years ago and has improved each year in their system. He's hitting .266/.365/.439 in Double-A at age 20 and still holding his own at shortstop. Because he isn't built like a typical shortstop and doesn't have that kind of lateral agility, I don't know if he stays there long-term, but his hands are good and his arm is more than sufficient. It's becoming increasingly clear, however, that his OBP/power combination will be good enough for any position.
29. Eloy Jimenez, OF
Chicago Cubs
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Class A
Signed in the same July 2 class as Torres, Eloy has been the Cubs' biggest breakout prospect this year, showing that the system, which I ranked fourth coming into 2016, is far from depleted even after last year's wave of promotions. Eloy, still just 19 years old, is smashing the Midwest League, posting a .332/.372/.527 line, and he showed off his great range in right field and huge raw power in Sunday's Futures Game. He's tied for second in the league in homers and is fourth in batting average and slugging, so while he might see his power dip next year in Myrtle Beach, he has the potential to be the Cubs' next great middle-of-the-order bat.
lastname30. Trent Clark, OF
Milwaukee Brewers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Class A
The Brewers' first-round pick from 2015 has missed time twice now with hamstring injuries. He has just 118 plate appearances this year and a .227/.359/.412 when he has played, but the patience is there and no one (myself included) seems to have any doubts about his ability to hit for average. Clark has played center field when he has been active this year but is much more likely to end up in a corner, where his potential with the bat -- high average/OBP, 15-20 homers -- would still make him an above-average regular.
lastname31. David Dahl, OF
Colorado Rockies
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A
Dahl missed about half of 2015 after injuring his spleen in an on-field collision, the second time in three full years he'd spent much of the season on the disabled list, but his return to health this year has marked a real breakout for him. He has posted career highs already in walks and homers and earned a promotion to Triple-A Albuquerque, a hitter's paradise, just before the All-Star break. He's already 13-for-26 with two doubles since the move up, and because he has to go on the 40-man roster after the season anyway, he should be in line for a September call-up to set him for an everyday job next year.
lastname32. Kyle Tucker, OF
Houston Astros
Previous rank: Honorable mention
Current level: Class A
Tucker's power hasn't been there in his first full pro season, but everything else has been, including a high contact rate and a surprising 28 steals in 34 attempts. Tucker's not that fast, but there's also future power to come as he fills out physically, which will probably also necessitate a move to right field. He has even raked against left-handed pitching, with just 13 K's in 75 at-bats. That's a great sign, albeit in a small sample, for a left-handed hitter in his first year out of high school.
33. Corey Ray, OF
Milwaukee Brewers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: High-A
The Brewers sent Ray, the fifth overall pick in last month's Rule 4 draft, right to High-A Brevard County, a very aggressive move for the draft's top prospect but someone who had minor concerns about his game, including his propensity to swing and miss. He's a power/speed guy with a good swing and feel to hit. The primary questions facing him are about his defense, which never measured up to his physical tools in center or even in limited reps in left for the University of Louisville.
lastname34. Clint Frazier, OF
Cleveland Indians
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
"Azazello" started to come on in the second half of 2015 and has carried it over into this year, continuing to cut his strikeouts and show more power, although he's hitting the ball on the ground too often for someone with his otherworldly bat speed. He has played in all three outfield spots and will probably end up in left field, so the power needs to be there for him to reach his ceiling as an above-average regular.
35. Mickey Moniak, OF
Philadelphia Phillies
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Rookie
The 2016 draft's first overall pick, Moniak is considered a high-floor high school bat because of his excellent feel for contact and the likelihood that he stays in center field. He's already out in the Gulf Coast League and could break camp with full-season Lakewood next year if he's as polished as scouts believe. His no-stride setup and narrow frame might limit his ceiling because he's unlikely to hit for average power.
lastname36. Gary Sanchez, C
New York Yankees
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A
From nearly playing himself off the prospect map with questions about his work ethic and his glove behind the plate, Sanchez has re-established his value. He has become sort of adequate behind the plate and hit for increasing power the last two years, with 18 homers in 93 games last year and nine in 56 games this year, so a projection of 25-plus homers in the majors is reasonable. Behind the plate, Sanchez has a cannon and likes to show it off, nailing 39 percent of runners since the start of 2015, so between that and the power, it won't take much to make him an average regular.
lastname37. Alex Verdugo, OF
Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
A former two-way player from Tucson, Verdugo continues to astound at the plate, starting his second full pro season out of high school in Double-A and hitting .293/.354/.439 with just a 13.5 percent strikeout rate as the Texas League's youngest regular. Verdugo still plays more in center than in right, but I think he ends up at right, where he has plenty of arm and should have above-average range. He's already shown he can hit for average and contact, but there's more power on the way as well, with All-Star upside and the promise of major league value as early as the end of 2017.
lastname38. Kolby Allard, LHP
Atlanta Braves
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Rookie
Allard is fully recovered from the back injury that has limited him since he signed last July, and he is back to throwing in the low 90s, topping at 96 mph, with a plus curveball and above-average control. He's dominating the short-season Appy League after three starts in Low-A Rome, two bad, one good. The key for Allard, aside from health, will be staying on top of the ball to generate more ground balls, currently at 45.6 percent on the season as a whole. If he's done with his back troubles, there's No. 2 starter upside.
lastname39. Robert Stephenson, RHP
Cincinnati Reds
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A
The stuff is good, the command is not. Stephenson will show three plus pitches if you get him on the right day, including the new-ish changeup that has him once again dominating left-handed hitters, so it's a starter package but without enough strikes. Harnessing that stuff is the Reds' main developmental challenge with their top prospects, although if he can't do it as a starter he'd be a potentially devastating reliever.
lastname40. Jorge Alfaro, C
Philadelphia Phillies
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
Alfaro is back from the ankle injury that wiped out three-quarters of his 2015 season, now hitting .295/.335/.498 for Double-A Reading while throwing out 46 percent of would-be base stealers. He doesn't walk enough, although he has drawn nine walks already in July because he has been possessed by an incubus. While his receiving isn't great, he's down to just three passed balls in 60 games after having 56 in 214 games from 2013-15. I think he stays behind the plate and makes enough contact for a .300ish OBP and 20-plus homers.
lastname41. Chance Sisco, C
Baltimore Orioles
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
Sisco is hitting .307/.397/.398 as a 21-year-old in Double-A. A solid-average receiver now in just his fourth year at the position, he showed that there's some latent power in that bat with his opposite-field home run in Sunday's Futures Game. He rarely strikes out, and I think he still has more growth to come behind the plate, with his average arm his only real deficiency. With Matt Wieters likely to leave in free agency, Sisco is the Orioles' catcher of the future, probably starting in the middle of 2017.
lastname42. Raul Mondesi, SS
Kansas City Royals
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A
I don't get why Mondesi is already in Triple-A. He came back from his PED suspension, played 29 games in Double-A, did fine (.259/.331/.448), and moved up to Omaha even though he won't turn 21 until the end of this month. He's still far more potential than production because he has always been young for where he has played, with outstanding range at short, plus speed, and great instincts at the position. The bat is still well behind his glove, however, and he needs more reps before he'll be ready to help the major league club. What's the rush?
lastname43. Blake Rutherford, OF
New York Yankees
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Rookie
The 18th overall pick in last month's Rule 4 draft, Rutherford started his pro career 0-for-10, which I'm sure had a few people in the Bronx and Tampa quietly wringing their hands, but he has had a few hits since then, and all seems right with the world. He's already 19, so there is some more pressure for him to succeed this year so he can break with a full-season club in April, but he's an advanced enough hitter with above-average present power and should be able to do so, given how well he performed against good competition last summer.
lastname44. Dom Smith, 1B
New York Mets
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
Smith showed off some of his raw power with a little run in late June that helped him set a new career high in homers, but overall his line of .277/.340/.436 is less than I expect for his Double-A debut. He's still an outstanding defender at first and has no trouble making contact, but he needs to get himself into advantageous counts more frequently to get to that power, whether it's for doubles or homers. On the other hand, he's the youngest regular in the Eastern League, younger than 2016 first-rounder Corey Ray and just two weeks older than Nick Senzel, and he's already more than holding his own in Double-A, so there's still cause for optimism.
45. Michael Kopech, RHP
Boston Red Sox
Previous rank: NR
Current level: High-A
Well, he might not be the brightest bulb in the chandelier, having missed half of last year because of a PED suspension and half of this year after getting into a fight with a teammate, but he's regularly hitting 100 mph with his fastball as a starter now and topped out at 103 already since his return. He complements that with a breaking ball that will flash plus but isn't consistent yet. It's a frighteningly electric arm, because no one who has thrown this hard has lasted as a starter, but Kopech is a good athlete in top-flight condition, so if anyone can hold it together in the rotation it might be him.
lastname46. Luis Ortiz, RHP
Texas Rangers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
Ortiz has been very good when healthy, and since the Rangers' High-A affiliate plays in a zero-gravity, high-offense environment, they chose to bump Ortiz up to Double-A after just six starts in High Desert. Ortiz won't turn 21 until September and shows an above-average fastball, plus changeup, and above-average control already. He's going to have to work to keep his weight at a manageable level, and he needs to continue to refine the breaking ball so he has a real out pitch for right-handed batters. He's still six months younger than 2016 first-rounder A.J. Puk and has only 135 career innings in pro ball, so any success he has this year in Double-A is a positive.
lastname47. Sean Newcomb, LHP
Atlanta Braves
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
Like Stephenson, Newcomb has three above-average pitches but just can't throw enough strikes to be as effective as the stuff says he should be. Newcomb's arm action is so easy that it's hard to see how to improve it; I don't think he consistently gets to the same release point, but it's hard to say how he can do that when nothing's actually wrong with the delivery. His walk rates have been consistent since he signed, and he bottomed out in his last outing, when he walked four guys in the first inning and had to be removed from the game. He's still here because a lefty throwing up to 96-97 mph with this kind of repertoire and history of health is a rare beast.
lastname48. Cody Bellinger, 1B
Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A
Bellinger, who turned 21 on Wednesday, is a plus-plus defender at first who roped 30 homers in the Cal League last year but has traded in some power for more contact in his first year at Double-A. Still just 20 years old, he has cut his strikeout rate to 22 percent from 28, but I think I'd take a few more whiffs for more power, because he's unlikely to ever be a big hitter for average. He's among the league's youngest regulars -- but a few months older than teammate Alex Verdugo -- and has a carrying tool in the defense, giving him a high floor and the potential to be an impact bat in the middle-third of a lineup if that power returns.
49. Yohander Mendez, LHP
Texas Rangers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A
Another Venezuelan lefty to follow in Martin Perez's footsteps, Mendez had never thrown more than 66 innings in a season before this year. He's already at 72 innings and counting, pitching in Double-A at age 21. He has come on this year with a fastball up to 93 mph, a plus change, and a solid-average breaking ball, with no appreciable platoon split either. He's a potential mid-rotation starter, if not better, once he shows he can handle a full season's workload.
lastname50. Jorge Mateo, SS
New York Yankees
Previous rank: 25
Current level: High-A
Mateo has been suspended two weeks for an undisclosed team-policy violation, but that aside, it's time for him to start performing up to the level of his tools. Mateo's a plus runner, at least a 70 and frequently showing 80 speed, which raises the question of why he's not always showing it. He has a compact swing that should lead to more contact, but he strikes out too often and the contact he makes isn't hard. He could stay at short, but the Yankees have had him play a little second base with the growth in Didi Gregorius' game this year. If the rumor that Mateo wanted a promotion to Double-A is true, that's great, but he needs to understand that hitting .266/.323/.396 won't get him there. Harder contact and all-the-time effort will.
Honorable mention
Kohl Stewart, RHP, Twins
Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Rockies
A.J. Puk, LHP, A's
Brent Honeywell, RHP, Rays
Nick Senzel, 3B, Reds
Tyler Jay, LHP, Twins
Hunter Harvey, RHP, Orioles
timdunkandthefunk
Rusty Larue
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2011
- Messages
- 17,094
- Reaction score
- 841
Check my spoiler tag above this.
ipitytheblue
...
Folty on a great outing but left in one inning too long
CheesePritchard
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2011
- Messages
- 7,357
- Reaction score
- 395
Umpire and AJP cost him
CheesePritchard
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2011
- Messages
- 7,357
- Reaction score
- 395
Wisler is going the wrong way.
CheesePritchard
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2011
- Messages
- 7,357
- Reaction score
- 395
BA updated their top 10 today. Do not believe they included this year's rule 4 or IFA guys. Also, Law named us his top overall farm system. Nice to see an even split with pitcher and position players but still looking for that corner outfielder with pop.
1. Dansby Swanson, ss
2. Ozzie Albies, ss/2b
3. Sean Newcomb, lhp
4. Kolby Allard, lhp
5. Mike Soroka, rhp
6. Austin Riley, 3b
7. Touki Toussaint, rhp
8. Max Fried, lhp
9. Ronald Acuna, of
10. Rio Ruiz, 3b
RISING
Povse, Weigel, Minter
FALLING
Braxton, Zack Bird
1. Dansby Swanson, ss
2. Ozzie Albies, ss/2b
3. Sean Newcomb, lhp
4. Kolby Allard, lhp
5. Mike Soroka, rhp
6. Austin Riley, 3b
7. Touki Toussaint, rhp
8. Max Fried, lhp
9. Ronald Acuna, of
10. Rio Ruiz, 3b
RISING
Povse, Weigel, Minter
FALLING
Braxton, Zack Bird
Say Hey Deac
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 25, 2011
- Messages
- 17,786
- Reaction score
- 2,157
Appeared Keith Law ranked the Braves system first in all of MLB.
CheesePritchard
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2011
- Messages
- 7,357
- Reaction score
- 395
Three straight games for Recker since AJP's disastrous back to back receiving games.
Claiming Alvarez off waivers from Mets has been a fantastic move.
Claiming Alvarez off waivers from Mets has been a fantastic move.
YoungBuck95
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 30, 2011
- Messages
- 23,311
- Reaction score
- 5,805
AJ Minter has been fantastic, too. 21.2 IP this season in the minors, coming back for TJS. 6.2 with Rome, 9.1 with Carolina, 5.2 with Mississippi. Over those 21.2, 6 hits, 5 walks, 1 ER, 30 strikeouts, .083 BAA, .51 WHIP, .42 ERA. Just dominating. 14 of his 17 outs in Mississippi have been strikeouts.
Say Hey Deac
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 25, 2011
- Messages
- 17,786
- Reaction score
- 2,157
I will admit that I have never heard of either of these guys you just mentioned. Haven't listened to or watched even an inning in a long time. But I do look at the minor league teams' boxscores almost every day.
DeacsOrDie
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 18, 2011
- Messages
- 7,330
- Reaction score
- 721
And apparently throws a 97mph cutter from the left side. Byrd thinks he will be in the majors at some point this year.
YoungBuck95
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 30, 2011
- Messages
- 23,311
- Reaction score
- 5,805
I really don't want to push him since he's fresh off TJS.
CheesePritchard
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2011
- Messages
- 7,357
- Reaction score
- 395
Teheran just exited with an injury. WTF.
Say Hey Deac
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 25, 2011
- Messages
- 17,786
- Reaction score
- 2,157
Doubt Coppy was going to trade Teheran, but we have quite bad luck last year and this year with potentially enticing trade pieces getting injured right before the deadline.
CheesePritchard
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2011
- Messages
- 7,357
- Reaction score
- 395
Don't know anything about Travis Demeritte other than he's hitting .272/.352/.583 with 25 HRs in high A and is a former first rounder but you have to give some credit to the FO for turning a minor league signing and waiver claim into what looks like a dude with some actual power.