This is first look for the board at this year's KY Derby. Since last fall, this crop has looked mediocre at best. A couple of then horses have had their moments. They have taken turns winning the big prep races. Sometimes because of horses having good days. Another reason was there were lots of small fields in the major props. Several of them only has seven horses running. Not having 10-12 can come back to haunt horses who haven't seen much traffic coming into a twenty horse Derby.
Before looking at some horses, I have to state that I have a Future Book bet on Irish War Cry at 21.5/1.
These are the odds I'm looking at early:
Classic Empire - 5/1 - The two-year old champion lost one race due to a small abscess in his foot. He came back to win easily in Arkansas, he has refused to train a few times. He should be on the board.
Always Dreaming 6-1 - Todd Pletcher trainee won by daylight in the FL Derby (his first stakes race). The time was slow, but he won easily against a mediocre field. He has a very high dosage figure. Some people don't consider this any more, but when only about 4-5 horses in the last 100 years didn't have a good Dosage, I still pay attention.
McCracken 7-1 - He was the hot horse coming into the Bluegrass and stunk out the joint. He had a perfect trip and lost to a maiden. He will get played a lot. Some will say, "it was a nice come back race after 60 days off." Maybe, underneath on exactas, trifectas and supers.
Irish War Cry 7-1 - He threw a real stinker in the Fountain of Youth. Then, ran like a champ in the Wood. If he gets a clear run, I think he's the winner. I'm putting the odds at what I think he'll go off at before the post positions are drawn.
Girvin 10-1 - All he does is win. His problem is he hasn't run against the best. I won't be tremendously surprised if he wins, but he still has to prove he belongs.
Gormley 10-1- His only bad race was against Mastery (who would have been the big favorite in the KY Derby if not injured). He'll run an honest race. If it's good enough, he'll be there. Another horse for exotics.
Thunder Snow 15-1 - The won the UAE Derby. Almost every year, some say the winner of that race will win the Derby. This is a mediocre field. So? Not really, the older horses who go for the $10M race in Dubai rest until June or July before competing again. Many don't recover for the whole year. Thew only advantage he has is the Thunder Snow only made the trip one way.
Tapwrit 15-1 - Totally freaked in the Tampa Bay Derby. Then didn't run a step in the Florida Derby. Maybe he freaks again. I'm not betting on it.
Gunnevera 15-1 - Seems to run well every other race. This is the every other race. But he really sucked in the Florida Derby.
This is a first blush. Lots of things can happen before the first Saturday in May.
Before looking at some horses, I have to state that I have a Future Book bet on Irish War Cry at 21.5/1.
These are the odds I'm looking at early:
Classic Empire - 5/1 - The two-year old champion lost one race due to a small abscess in his foot. He came back to win easily in Arkansas, he has refused to train a few times. He should be on the board.
Always Dreaming 6-1 - Todd Pletcher trainee won by daylight in the FL Derby (his first stakes race). The time was slow, but he won easily against a mediocre field. He has a very high dosage figure. Some people don't consider this any more, but when only about 4-5 horses in the last 100 years didn't have a good Dosage, I still pay attention.
McCracken 7-1 - He was the hot horse coming into the Bluegrass and stunk out the joint. He had a perfect trip and lost to a maiden. He will get played a lot. Some will say, "it was a nice come back race after 60 days off." Maybe, underneath on exactas, trifectas and supers.
Irish War Cry 7-1 - He threw a real stinker in the Fountain of Youth. Then, ran like a champ in the Wood. If he gets a clear run, I think he's the winner. I'm putting the odds at what I think he'll go off at before the post positions are drawn.
Girvin 10-1 - All he does is win. His problem is he hasn't run against the best. I won't be tremendously surprised if he wins, but he still has to prove he belongs.
Gormley 10-1- His only bad race was against Mastery (who would have been the big favorite in the KY Derby if not injured). He'll run an honest race. If it's good enough, he'll be there. Another horse for exotics.
Thunder Snow 15-1 - The won the UAE Derby. Almost every year, some say the winner of that race will win the Derby. This is a mediocre field. So? Not really, the older horses who go for the $10M race in Dubai rest until June or July before competing again. Many don't recover for the whole year. Thew only advantage he has is the Thunder Snow only made the trip one way.
Tapwrit 15-1 - Totally freaked in the Tampa Bay Derby. Then didn't run a step in the Florida Derby. Maybe he freaks again. I'm not betting on it.
Gunnevera 15-1 - Seems to run well every other race. This is the every other race. But he really sucked in the Florida Derby.
This is a first blush. Lots of things can happen before the first Saturday in May.
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