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'17 Specials & '18 Midterms Thread

Not sure the best place to put these honest reflections from Eric Cantor.
https://www.washingtonian.com/2017/07/26/eric-cantor-republicans-obamacare-donald-trump/

Let’s back up a moment. Remember the summer of 2013, when the “Defund Obamacare Tour” drove the news cycle all through Congress’s August recess? The town halls organized by the political arm of the Heritage Foundation enlivened the base and furthered what had been the GOP’s core message since 2010—that Obamacare was bad and, if Americans helped Republicans hold both chambers, it could be repealed.
Cantor helped create that perception. Earlier that summer—after many failed attempts over the years to shred the law piecemeal—Cantor promised colleagues that the House would vote on a “full repeal.” But even after it did, the measure was dead on arrival in the Democratic-controlled Senate. Cantor—in Congress 13 years and, fairly or unfairly, once thought to be above electoral reproach—paid the price. His 2014 avenger, now-congressman David Brat, bludgeoned him for being soft on Obamacare, among other things. But the failure to make a dent in the law landed a bigger blow on the party. After seven years of pledging they could dismantle Obamacare, if only they had control of Congress and the White House, Republicans—at last in charge of both—have faced deep divisions over a replacement.

Asked if he feels partly responsible for their current predicament, Cantor is unequivocal. “Oh,” he says, “100 percent.”
He goes further: “To give the impression that if Republicans were in control of the House and Senate, that we could do that when Obama was still in office . . . .” His voice trails off and he shakes his head. “I never believed it.”
He says he wasn’t the only one aware of the charade: “We sort of all got what was going on, that there was this disconnect in terms of communication, because no one wanted to take the time out in the general public to even think about ‘Wait a minute—that can’t happen.’ ” But, he adds, “if you’ve got that anger working for you, you’re gonna let it be.”
It’s a stunning admission from a former member of the party leadership—that the linchpin of GOP electoral strategy for the better part of a decade was a fantasy, a flame continually fanned solely because, when it came to midterm elections, it worked. (Barring, of course, his own.)

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I'd actually argue that the strategy worked in his loss as well. Brat won that primary because Republicans in Cantor's district believed so strongly in the lie that they blamed Cantor for not making it come to fruition.
 
Not sure it was all that. Brat is a full blown tea bagger. The district goes from the West End in Richmond (fairly conservative and mostly well off suburbs) to rural areas west and northwest (very red). Cantor didn't pay much attention in the primary, thinking he was invulnerable. Brat ran a good insurgent campaign, but no one thought he'd win. Then he won the upset with extremely light turnout - basically, his tea bagging brethren were hard core and showed up, and Cantor's folks didn't show up. I think it was much more extremely light turnout, Brat's campaign, and Cantor's not paying attention (in that order) than it was any 1 issue.
 
PhDeac said:
Not sure the best place to put these honest reflections from Eric Cantor.
https://www.washingtonian.com/2017/07/26/eric-cantor-republicans-obamacare-donald-trump/

Let’s back up a moment. Remember the summer of 2013, when the “Defund Obamacare Tour” drove the news cycle all through Congress’s August recess? The town halls organized by the political arm of the Heritage Foundation enlivened the base and furthered what had been the GOP’s core message since 2010—that Obamacare was bad and, if Americans helped Republicans hold both chambers, it could be repealed.
Cantor helped create that perception. Earlier that summer—after many failed attempts over the years to shred the law piecemeal—Cantor promised colleagues that the House would vote on a “full repeal.” But even after it did, the measure was dead on arrival in the Democratic-controlled Senate. Cantor—in Congress 13 years and, fairly or unfairly, once thought to be above electoral reproach—paid the price. His 2014 avenger, now-congressman David Brat, bludgeoned him for being soft on Obamacare, among other things. But the failure to make a dent in the law landed a bigger blow on the party. After seven years of pledging they could dismantle Obamacare, if only they had control of Congress and the White House, Republicans—at last in charge of both—have faced deep divisions over a replacement.

Asked if he feels partly responsible for their current predicament, Cantor is unequivocal. “Oh,” he says, “100 percent.”
He goes further: “To give the impression that if Republicans were in control of the House and Senate, that we could do that when Obama was still in office . . . .” His voice trails off and he shakes his head. “I never believed it.”
He says he wasn’t the only one aware of the charade: “We sort of all got what was going on, that there was this disconnect in terms of communication, because no one wanted to take the time out in the general public to even think about ‘Wait a minute—that can’t happen.’ ” But, he adds, “if you’ve got that anger working for you, you’re gonna let it be.”
It’s a stunning admission from a former member of the party leadership—that the linchpin of GOP electoral strategy for the better part of a decade was a fantasy, a flame continually fanned solely because, when it came to midterm elections, it worked. (Barring, of course, his own.)

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I'd actually argue that the strategy worked in his loss as well. Brat won that primary because Republicans in Cantor's district believed so strongly in the lie that they blamed Cantor for not making it come to fruition.
Click to expand...

I am not an expert on this by any means, but Cantor might be re-writing history a bit. This American Life did an episode a few month ago called the Beginning of Now. The first segment was about Bannon and Brietbart, and the second was about the Cantor primary loss. They conclude that Cantor lost because of immigration not the ACA. https://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/615/the-beginning-of-now?act=0#play
 
birdman said:
I am not an expert on this by any means, but Cantor might be re-writing history a bit. This American Life did an episode a few month ago called the Beginning of Now. The first segment was about Bannon and Brietbart, and the second was about the Cantor primary loss. They conclude that Cantor lost because of immigration not the ACA. https://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/615/the-beginning-of-now?act=0#play
Click to expand...

Again, I think it was more light turnout and Cantor not taking the challenge seriously (made very few local appearances, so had a Bayh issue). But VA has had a large Latino influx over the last 2 decades, and the West End of Richmond in particular has had a large Indian influx over the last decade. And Brat is pretty virulently anti immigration, while I believe Cantor was more pro business therefore pro immigration, so that makes a fair amount of sense.
 
avalon said:
AP source: Barletta to seek US Senate seat held by Bob Casey
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God, I remember e-mail chains about that guy. Here's his current district.

lossless-page1-1280px-Pennsylvania_US_Congressional_District_11_%28since_2013%29.tif.png


His old one included my hometown, and also contained Scranton and bordered New Jersey. The new one is more...contrived.
 
exactly, what a fucking joke. like people in western cumberland coutny have anything in common with the coal donks up around hazelton and scranton
 
PA congressional districts are an abomination.

I had hoped that Barletta would get an appointment in the Trump administration so there would be a special election in PA. (Not that a Dem would have much of a shot in that district.)

Imagine being represented in the Senate by Lou Barletta and Pat Toomey.
 
avalon said:
PA congressional districts are an abomination.

I had hoped that Barletta would get an appointment in the Trump administration so there would be a special election in PA. (Not that a Dem would have much of a shot in that district.)

Imagine being represented in the Senate by Lou Barletta and Pat Toomey.
Click to expand...

It's not just PA. Some VA districts are screwed up as well. At least 1 has been invalidated by the courts, which is why we're 7-4 Pub instead of the old 8-3. And none of our 11 districts are very competitive. MD also has some screwed up districts, but that's due to some Dem creative line drawing. Goes both ways.
 
cville deac said:
It's not just PA. Some VA districts are screwed up as well. At least 1 has been invalidated by the courts, which is why we're 7-4 Pub instead of the old 8-3. And none of our 11 districts are very competitive. MD also has some screwed up districts, but that's due to some Dem creative line drawing. Goes both ways.
Click to expand...

In MD's defense, it has a really weird shape.
 


Mitch McConnell has been in the Senate forever.
 
But the people of Kentucky need someone who has been in DC for 32 years to fight big government.
 
McConnell-linked SuperPAC says it's all in for Heller

Fresh off Sen. Dean Heller’s vote for the so-called skinny Obamacare repeal, a SuperPAC linked to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says it will spend seven figures to defend him — including fending off any primary challenge.

“We were Senator Heller’s biggest independent supporter in 2012 and we expect to be in 2018,” said Steven Law, McConnell’s former chief of staff who now oversees the Senate Leadership Fund. “In general, senators casting tough votes have to be concerned about downstream political consequences. We will have their backs.”
Click to expand...

Senate votes are expensive.
 
Gotta wonder if Heller worked out some deal with McCain to keep his campaign cash while making sure repeal still didn't pass.
 
PhDeac said:
Gotta wonder if Heller worked out some deal with McCain to keep his campaign cash while making sure repeal still didn't pass.
Click to expand...

Wouldn't Flake be more likely to do that deal with McCain?
 
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