Wake Ken Pom Thread: 2014-15 Preaseason = 104, Currently = 125 Season Over

[DistrictDeacon]

i'm thinking of writing a children's book. Little Ronnie Wellman and the moving bullseye it's about a young child that can never admit he is wrong despite making one bad decision after another. eventually no one (not even his sweet and lovable but very gullible mother) believes his lies any longer and he is forced to grow up fast. not exactly sure where the ending goes after all a little kid (little jerk that he is) getting run out of town by a mob with pitchforks is pretty dark and my target audience is kids after all.

Raped by a homeless man and dumped in a Reynolda pond?

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

I think we will finish better than 200. I actually don't think it will be very close either.

We are quite obviously improving this year and have played much better basketball as of late (even though the schedule was a bit easier).

I think we will finish somewhere around where we are now, maybe even a little better.

I base this off of what I've seen the past 4-5 games and also my everlasting blind optimism.

I think I felt this way after the second ACC game last year... a brutal, close road loss to Maryland that we seemingly got hosed by the refs. I think the very next game State raped the ever-living shit out of us at home.

 

[myDeaconmyhand]

I think I felt this way after the second ACC game last year... a brutal, close road loss to Maryland that we seemingly got hosed by the refs. I think the very next game State raped the ever-living shit out of us at home.

Since when has a [Redacted] team ever really improved? Does anybody here remember our first game this season? We played better against UConn on day 1 then we did beating a shitty Xavier team 2 weeks ago.

 

[IAppreciateIt]

We have been much better since the Nebraska game.

Just looking at the individual game results and opponents' current kenpom rank, we'd be about 90-95 based on our performance the last seven games.

 

[Deacsfan27]

Since when has a [Redacted] team ever really improved? Does anybody here remember our first game this season? We played better against UConn on day 1 then we did beating a shitty Xavier team 2 weeks ago.

No we didn't. Offensively we played better against Connecticut (103.1 to 95.0 adjusted offensive efficiency rating), but defensively it's not even close (111.0 to 85.4 adjusted defensive efficiency rating).

That was also more one-on-one than actual sets on the offensive side of the ball. I don't have numbers to back that up, but if there were a part on KP that examined one-on-one baskets vs. team sets I think the latter would show a pretty big improvement as the year went along. The 50% assist rate was more because we were hitting threes (7/16) than anything if I recall correctly.

Our defense has been very, very good the past 5 games (Duke aside, where we gave up a 114 AOE, but Duke has the 6th best offense in the country according to KP).

I know a lot of people are saying that we aren't improving and this team is just like the team of the past two years, but that is a pretty inaccurate assessment of this years team statistically imo. There will be highs and lows just like the past two seasons, but it is much, much more dependent on the fact that we have 6 freshmen playing meaningful minutes than anything coaching-wise in my take on it.

Others that know more about KenPom can chime in, but I believe having freshmen that aren't really accounted for resulted in our very low ranking to start the year. The freshmen have outperformed most preseason expectations for them, and in the case of KP, there wasn't even a comparative basis except for CMM because he only accounts for X number of freshmen (I think it's the RSCI top 75 or something).

Therefore we will continue to move up as pre-season rankings are moved farther out of the equation as we play more games.

 

[Wakeforest22890]

Wake has clearly improved since Day 1 (which wasn't even the Uconn game). You can tell they've improved by watching the games and you can tell they've improved by the statistics. This team was always going to get better as the season went on because we had so many freshmen.

 

[DirkTheDeac]

One thing KenPom doesn't measure that I saw improvement in against Duke was ball movement. We are improving. We are getting more open looks. If they keep at it the improvement on the offensive end will improve.

 

[myDeaconmyhand]

It's cute how optimistic you two are.

 

[Deacsfan27]

It's cute how optimistic you two are.

I quoted statistical trends that account for SOS to back up my argument and position, but yes I am also an optimistic person.

 

[myDeaconmyhand]

I quoted statistical trends that account for SOS to back up my argument and position, but yes I am also an optimistic person.

We've had a mild winning streak every year Bzz has been here, and each year it's meant nothing. We're playing better then we were a month ago, but there's no reason beyond optimism to believe it's going to continue.
2011-12: Between Dec 18 and January 7th we went 4-1.
2010-11: Between Nov 23 and December 15th we went 4-1.

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

We were in the 150's in KP I believe last year before the State game single-handedly dropped us below the [Redacted] zone. I hope I'm wrong but I see one of those games coming on the horizon.

 

[myDeaconmyhand]

The statistics for any bad team are going to significantly improve when they win 4 of 5. Ken Pom isn't predicting how we're going to play in the future, it's just interpreting how we're playing right now.

 

[ChrisL68]

We are better than we were last year. I suspect we will win 6 conference games or so, including a few over top 100 teams and we will beat a NIT/NCAA quality team once this year.

 

[PhDeac]

i'm thinking of writing a children's book. Little Ronnie Wellman and the moving bullseye it's about a young child that can never admit he is wrong despite making one bad decision after another. eventually no one (not even his sweet and lovable but very gullible mother) believes his lies any longer and he is forced to grow up fast. not exactly sure where the ending goes since a little kid (little jerk that he is) getting run out of town by a mob with pitchforks is pretty dark and my target audience is kids after all.

This is brilliant.

 

[AnonymousDeac]

We are better than we were last year. I suspect we will win 6 conference games or so, including a few over top 100 teams and we will beat a NIT/NCAA quality team once this year.

We will not beat an NCAA team this year. We may beat an NIT team.

 

[Deacsfan27]

We will not beat an NCAA team this year. We may beat an NIT team.

I know the guys on the team desperately want to beat N.C. State. They are tired of hearing about how good all their freshmen are because they've been playing with them since they were all young. They know they can hang and play with them, especially the guys from NC.

 

[stonz]

That chart just shows us that we're always going to be ranked about between 160-180 after non-conference play. Who doesn't believe that we're going to finish the season in the [Redacted] zone? It's been the same the last 2 years, "the acc sucks, we're bound to pick up a couple of wins". Nope. Maybe things change this season, but does anybody really care whether we win 13 or 14 vs just 10 games?

Yep. The big dip will start in a few games.

I think I have a $20 bet with somebody here about our final Kenpom rating. I've got to find that.

Thanks for keeping up with that chart VT. The big dip is imminent.

Count me as one who does not expect an imminent big dip. I don't think we'll re-enter the [Redacted] zone this year. I wrote a long (poorly articulated) post on this a little while ago, but I do not expect this year to follow the same KenPom pattern as the past two years. Time will tell I guess.

 

[Schwabber89]

We are better than we were last year. I suspect we will win 6 conference games or so, including a few over top 100 teams and we will beat a NIT/NCAA quality team once this year.

ChrisL, glad to see you coming around a little. I think you were at 4 wins a little while back. 6 is fair, I think 8, but they need to play the games. How far up do we jump in Ken Pom when we beat VIrginia?

 

[buckets]

ChrisL, glad to see you coming around a little. I think you were at 4 wins a little while back. 6 is fair, I think 8, but they need to play the games. How far up do we jump in Ken Pom when we beat VIrginia?

8?! care to put money down on that?

 

[Schwabber89]

I'd take the over on 6 for my house, but as a general economic principle I don't bet with anonymous people, whom I don't know, and seem to dis-like me on internet boards.