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FiveThirtyEight midterms projections update: Republicans favored to take the Senate

Deacfreak07 said:
48 hours ago, I would have pegged Mark Warner as a promising talent, though he's almost 50.

The Castro brothers are still green, but they are young and rising.
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Same thoughts. I'm not sure if Warner plans to run. If he does, his close win hurt him. I didn't realize he wasn't over 50.

Julian Castro is a VP lock. That may be stopping others from running to get a shot at the VP nod.
 
PhDeac said:
Same thoughts. I'm not sure if Warner plans to run. If he does, his close win hurt him. I didn't realize he wasn't over 50.

Julian Castro is a VP lock. That may be stopping others from running to get a shot at the VP nod.
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Maybe Hagan clears way for the next rising SUPERSTAR in American politics.

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Except he'd be in his mid 60s by 2020.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Hillary had terrible advisers in 2008 an she has a weak staff now. There was no reason for her to rev up the 2016 machine too early. She screwed up her book tour and couldn't stop making tone deaf comments about wealth. Kinda think she's too arrogant to hire strong people who aren't too scared to tell her what she needs to hear rather than what she wants to hear. She fell into the "inevitable trap" once and looks like she's falling into it again. Electoral college and demographic advantages are all well and good, but that don't guarantee crappy candidates can win. Dennis Kuchinich wouldn't have won in 2008. Both parties seem to be too focused on hoping heir opponents screw up rather than on running on winning policies and recruiting good candidates.
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But I don't think the Republican party will run someone other than a super wealthy white male, showing once again how unconcerned/unaware of the voting dynamic of our country. Hillary might be polarizing but she will look like the better option compared to whom the pubs put forth
 
I think none of the above will look appealing to non-white males.
 
PhDeac said:
The Democrats have an incredibly short leadership bench. Few governors. The notable senators are either too old or too new (Cory Booker) with the important exception being Kirsten Gillabrand (Elizabeth Warren is both). The known House reps are olds and/or nut jobs and none have done anything significant except keep Pelosi in power.

Failure to develop any depth whatsoever at the national and state levels is hurting Democrats. What has the DNC been doing?
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Hillary's a little bit like McCain. McCain's window was 2000 and by 2008 his time had passed. 2008 was Hillary's time and 8 years later she'll have trouble with (a) younger candidate(s). One of her early 2007 primary campaign slogans was "experience for change" WTF? She's very vulnerable and the Dems have no Plan B.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Hillary's a little bit like McCain. McCain's window was 2000 and by 2008 his time had passed. 2008 was Hillary's time and 8 years later she'll have trouble with (a) younger candidate(s). One of her early 2007 primary campaign slogans was "experience for change" WTF? She's very vulnerable and the Dems have no Plan B.
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Yep. She reeks of Gore, McCain, Kerry, and Romney.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Hillary's a little bit like McCain. McCain's window was 2000 and by 2008 his time had passed. 2008 was Hillary's time and 8 years later she'll have trouble with (a) younger candidate(s). One of her early 2007 primary campaign slogans was "experience for change" WTF? She's very vulnerable and the Dems have no Plan B.
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I think W was pretty vulnerable in 2004, but the Dems nominated one of the few people he could beat. There are several would-be Pub nominees who would make Hillary an easy pick.
 
Hillary's best chance is a match up vs Jeb or Mitt. Retreads and all roughly the same age. She'd have zero chance if she were a man. Warner and Hickenlooper might have been possibilities, but close elections hurt them badly. Cuomo has some skeletons/baggage, but he's gotta be looking hard at a run now. He'd match up well with Christie. Castro has a bit of a problem, he needs a bigger job, but Texas isn't ready for a Dem Governor yet. Losing VP candidates (Edwards, Palin, Ryan) rarely have any upward mobility. Booker and Gillibrand should run for Governor as soon as they possibly can.
 
Texas may not be ready but Castro could energize voters who have largely been ignored in Texas.

Agree about Booker and Gillibrand.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Hillary's a little bit like McCain. McCain's window was 2000 and by 2008 his time had passed. 2008 was Hillary's time and 8 years later she'll have trouble with (a) younger candidate(s). One of her early 2007 primary campaign slogans was "experience for change" WTF? She's very vulnerable and the Dems have no Plan B.
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True progressives have only a Plan A.

130508_elizabeth_warren_ap_328.jpg
 
WFU71 said:
I think W was pretty vulnerable in 2004, but the Dems nominated one of the few people he could beat. There are several would-be Pub nominees who would make Hillary an easy pick.
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A better candidate in 2004, pray tell?



Oh, and Kerry sucked. I didn't volunteer or donate to his campaign.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Hillary's best chance is a match up vs Jeb or Mitt. Retreads and all roughly the same age. She'd have zero chance if she were a man. Warner and Hickenlooper might have been possibilities, but close elections hurt them badly. Cuomo has some skeletons/baggage, but he's gotta be looking hard at a run now. He'd match up well with Christie. Castro has a bit of a problem, he needs a bigger job, but Texas isn't ready for a Dem Governor yet. Losing VP candidates (Edwards, Palin, Ryan) rarely have any upward mobility. Booker and Gillibrand should run for Governor as soon as they possibly can.
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This is a good post. I think Castro could eek out a statewide race, but he would need some help on the top of the ticket probably. Hillary doesn't do that for him in Texas.
 
Warren would probably identify herself as a damn near socialist. I mean I would vote for her obviously but she's not particularly electable.
 
The Clintons' plan was to clear the field of potential primary challengers, but that looks like a mistake at this point. Hillary's not a great campaigner ("sniper fire on the tarmac", wealth problems, "businesses don't create jobs") and she's rusty. As the inevitable nominee, she draws all the fire from the GOP. Clintons are running scared of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and they fear that both would pull Hillary too far left in the primaries. Problem is that neither is electable nationally and both would draw more ire from conservatives than Hillary. If the Clintons are truly scared about anyone they may face in the Dem primaries, they've got serious problems. Hillary needs some competition to improve since she's prickly and not a great retail campaigner. Don't buy it that conservatives stayed home and pouted because McCain and Mitt weren't conservative enough and Dems won't stay home because Hillary is too close to business. The alternatives won't be close to better alternatives.

Conversely I think the GOP needs a few women to run in the primaries. Biden tip toed on eggshells around Palin because most male pols are way too clumsy and awkward around female candidates. They're terrified of saying the wrong thing and thereby alienating a huge voting bloc. GOP has a much deeper bench of governors (Christie, Kasich, Walker, Jeb, Jindal), but those guys will need a VP to carry the water on Capital Hill. Biden's a clownish gaffe machine, but he's way better than Obama in getting things done on Capital Hill. Tea Party will go apeshit if they don't get one of the slots on the 2016 GOP ticket, but Cruz has zero friends in the Senate.
 
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