• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

General Election Thread: Two Weeks Out

"just hours later, we ran into him by chance at a rest stop..." Florida:golfclap:
 
ReturnofMf said:
Olympics will kill a lot of news. Trump should have hoped they happened two weeks ago.

Rich people have accountants that exempt their income. Tax rate on the rich doesn't matter, we need to trim the code and stop our thousands of special breaks on the right and left. Repatriating money on a one time thing is something all three parties agree on, bring it home for 10 percent or less now and put it in U.S. investment. Talk about a stimulus. HRC, Trump, and Johnson would all sign this bill - if it was a one time thing.

Free trade means free labor. We need ID cards to allow our free trade partners and us to exchange workers and be sure they A) aren't terrorists and B) pay taxes. 35 percent tariffs in place of our deals are only paid by consumers, not corporations thanks to who has the access and resources for better lobbyists, lawyers and accountants. Johnson/Weld, 2016.
Click to expand...

What the heck, do you think CPAs just make up deductions? AMT cap/limit a lot of deductions too. Increasing the tax rates for high income earners definitely makes high earners pay more and decreasing the top tax brackets definitely makes them pay less.

And I don't really understand when politicans claim to want to simplify the tax code. What exactly are they suggesting? Taxes are really simple for 99%+ of Americans right now. I think it is just a good thing for politicians to say to gain support because most Americans are pretty lazy/dumb and think their taxes are really complicated.

Getting rid of carried interest loophole for Hedgies and Private Equity seems good and maybe amending long term cap gains treatment. But what else?
 
I've had 45 as a decent over/under for percent of the vote for Trump. Past couple of weeks has Trump failing to crack 40 in nine of the last ten polls aggregated on RCP (average of 36.5 and down by over 7 percent to Clinton). What do you guys think is a good over/under for Trump's share of the popular vote?

Also, may start posting the 538 odds on here on a somewhat regular basis:

Now-cast (odds to win if election were today): Hillary (96.4%)
Polls Only (current polling plus trends towards election day): Hillary (87.5%)
Polls-Plus (best model, polling plus trends plus demographics): Hillary (79.5%)

All three of these are the best odds Hillary has had all election cycle.

Projected popular vote from polls-plus: Clinton 49.0%-44.4% Trump (Johnson 5.3%)
Electoral College projection from polls-plus: Clinton 324.4-213.5 Trump

Hillary currently favored to win every swing state. 34% chance to win Georgia and even a 21% to win South Carolina (!!!).
 
Can you imagine if Obama was allowed to seek a third term and got to run against Trump? Is there a state that wouldn't be in play?
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
I've had 45 as a decent over/under for percent of the vote for Trump. Past couple of weeks has Trump failing to crack 40 in nine of the last ten polls aggregated on RCP (average of 36.5 and down by over 7 percent to Clinton). What do you guys think is a good over/under for Trump's share of the popular vote?

Also, may start posting the 538 odds on here on a somewhat regular basis:

Now-cast (odds to win if election were today): Hillary (96.4%)
Polls Only (current polling plus trends towards election day): Hillary (87.5%)
Polls-Plus (best model, polling plus trends plus demographics): Hillary (79.5%)

All three of these are the best odds Hillary has had all election cycle.

Projected popular vote from polls-plus: Clinton 49.0%-44.4% Trump (Johnson 5.3%)
Electoral College projection from polls-plus: Clinton 324.4-213.5 Trump

Hillary currently favored to win every swing state. 34% chance to win Georgia and even a 21% to win South Carolina (!!!).
Click to expand...

RCP guy said that PA & OH consistently end up within 1% of national average.

First impression, McMullin is much sharper than any of the current GOP leadership. Probably gets ballot access in 30 states. No mention of his social positions or VP. If he's socially conservative, prevents Trump from winning AZ, GA, SC, MO, and UT (dependent on ballot access). Ridiculous there are scenarios where GOP could lose UT, SC, or GA against Hilldawg.

Never thought Hillary would get above 50%/10% margin, but that may happen in the short term within the next week or so. Thought that would be when 'Pub pols would start jumping ship and publicly trashing Trump if it happened after Labor Day, but it's already happening in August before the numbers are there.

Trump doesn't have any leverage with establishment 'Pubs, but he needs to freeze his numbers or start moving up between now and the first debate. Trump now needs three debates more than HRC does. No way can he wait for a single late debate if the race remains above 5%.
 
Would jumping ship cost House Pubs and Senate Pubs running for office support from Trump voters? Especially those who have only showed up to the polls to vote for Trump?
 
Rich Parr ‏@richparr79 31m31 minutes ago
 This is pretty astonishing http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/clinton-leads-in-nc-for-first-time-since-march.html …
@ppppolls
CpbClWCWEAAqZFH.jpg
 
CantStandYa said:
Can you imagine if Obama was allowed to seek a third term and got to run against Trump? Is there a state that wouldn't be in play?
Click to expand...

No. I posted a poll a month ago asking how much he would beat Trump by in the popular vote. Most people fell in the 7.5-9.9% and 10%+. I think 10%+ would be a stone cold lock at this point.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I picture more of a Shelob than a Morgoth; we don't really know how or where Hillary gained her power, just that she sort of absorbs all the light and grows nearly unchecked in power
 
Seems odd that a weekly newspaper from Santa Monica would get the scoop on that story. Would be interesting though. Johnson would win at least Utah under that scenario I believe.
 
For someone who loosely follows the election process, what occurs when none of the candidates reach 270 electoral votes? With Johnson and others involved, would this even be a realistic possibility?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top