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Month Out: Presidential Election Predictions

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IamThunderbolt said:
With the election trending toward Clinton bigly, how big is the chance that the "hold your nose and vote for Hillary" crowd doesn't think they need to show up and the election is a lot closer than predicted?
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Good point. All indications are the HRC campaign is well aware of this possibility, so you'd have to think their considerable resources will go to GOTV, even moreso.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
My map above, I believe, is very close to Obama's 2008 win with Arizona and Indiana flipped and Obama taking the NE-2
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Thought Obama 2012 (332) would be par for HRC. Now appears Obama 2008 (359) is within reach. Anything in between those goalposts is a sold win. Getting above 359 is an ass kicking.

Alt right bitched and moaned about McCain and Mitt being too moderate and consequently got their chosen one at the top of the 2016 ticket. No doubt HRC is damaged goods, but WTF can they say if she gets 360+ EVs? Trump's not running again and Pence is a wus. A full alt right 2020 ticket would get HRC above 400 EVs.

Heard a pundit claim the current GOP is a third alt right (Trump), a third social conservative (Pence), and a third establishment (Ryan). Personally think (hope?) it's quarters with libertarians (Weld). Can't see alt right or social conservatives (full or split ticket) winning in the foreseeable future. Could see a libertarian/establishment ticket (Weld/Haley as placeholders) winning in 2020, but a social conservative ticket is more likely to win the GOP nomination and lose to HRC with Mitt EVs.

2020 social conservatives (Pence, Cruz) and establishment (Ryan, Kasich, Rubio, Walker, Haley, Thune) are pretty clear, but can't figure out the alt right or libertarian (Rand?) 2020 GOP wannabes. If establishment and/or libertarians don't get at least a piece of the 2020 ticket, think they leave the GOP-a third become independents, a third become Libertarians, and a third become Dems. Alt right/social conservative survivor party limps along, but dies off around 2028 and Libertarians becomes a major party.
 
That the uber conservative Ryan is considered "establishment" shows how far right the GOP has gone. Wasn't it John Paul Stevens who said that he hadn't changed his centrist outlook but rather that the Supreme Court had moved far to the right?
 
RJKarl said:
That the uber conservative Ryan is considered "establishment" shows how far right the GOP has gone. Wasn't it John Paul Stevens who said that he hadn't changed his centrist outlook but rather that the Supreme Court had moved far to the right?
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Paul Ryan isn't uber conservative. Just like Obama isn't very liberal.
 
His economic plan was called "immoral" by the Catholic Church which is exactly a liberal group. His policies are trickle down plus and he basically wants to get rid of the social safety net. He wants to end Social Security which is a foolhardy, radically right concept that screws the middle class and lower. He opposes the minimum wage period. He opposes marriage equality and immigration reform.

In a normal era, hell in Reagan's time, he would be considered very far right.
 
This is the prediction thread, let's keep it to just the game of politics please.

GOP internals are showing the race tied in Indiana, Clinton up 11 in PA, up 14 in NH per John Harwood. Cratering.


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It's too bad Hillary can't win SC. If she could, she could win the entire Atlantic and Pacific Coasts of the Lower 48.
 
Considering the most recent polling, I've got Trump comfortably winning.
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BobStackFan4Life said:
See above, plus Rasmussen, plus some others showing Trump in the lead.
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Any state polls in particular? That map doesn't match a 1-2 point polling lead for the GOP. That's closer to a 7 point Trump lead.


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JManslow said:
GOP internals are showing the race tied in Indiana, Clinton up 11 in PA, up 14 in NH per John Harwood. Cratering.
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Still sticking with 358 and never thought HRC's ceiling was above 374. Very dubious she gets to 374, but bizarre there's a potential path to 400+, even without TX.

Dems definitely want Bayh back in the Senate, but don't need/can't hold IN. Unless another alt right dickhead emerges for 2020, HRC would prefer to run against Pence over Cruz in 2020. Either would be general election roadkill.

Everybody talks about the Dem big blue wall floor (19 states + DC, 247 EVs), but GOP has a bag of shit EV floor going forward:

Northeast: 0
West: 19 (UT, WY, ID, MT, ID, AK)
Midwest: 45 (IN, MO, plus Plains states)
South: 100 (everything but VA, NC, FL, GA)
 
Kellyanne Conway said Trump's focus will be FL, OH, IA, NC, NV, AZ, GA, NH, and ME-2. CO, VA, and PA as backups. What she conveniently neglected to mention is that they have to sweep the former group just to get to 270-268.

Her counterpart, Robbie Mook, said they hadn't planned on contesting AZ until they realized Trump gives them a chance there. Didn't mention GA, but acknowledged they were only in IN and MO because of the potential Senate pick ups.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Kellyanne Conway said Trump's focus will be FL, OH, IA, NC, NV, AZ, GA, NH, and ME-2. CO, VA, and PA as backups. What she conveniently neglected to mention is that they have to sweep the former group just to get to 270-268.

Her counterpart, Robbie Mook, said they hadn't planned on contesting AZ until they realized Trump gives them a chance there. Didn't mention GA, but acknowledged they were only in IN and MO because of the potential Senate pick ups.
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Well in their defense, that is their chance.

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RJKarl said:
His economic plan was called "immoral" by the Catholic Church which is exactly a liberal group. His policies are trickle down plus and he basically wants to get rid of the social safety net. He wants to end Social Security which is a foolhardy, radically right concept that screws the middle class and lower. He opposes the minimum wage period. He opposes marriage equality and immigration reform.

In a normal era, hell in Reagan's time, he would be considered very far right.
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This. Just two years later when the Dems caved to the first Ryan budget (more or less), the Republicans demanded more and shut down the government over it.
 
JManslow said:
Any state polls in particular? That map doesn't match a 1-2 point polling lead for the GOP. That's closer to a 7 point Trump lead.


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This is more what a 1-2 point Trump win would look like:

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