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Month Out: Presidential Election Predictions

In Virginia turns reliably blue it really limits the ability of the pubs to take a national election

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As it currently sits, RealClearPolitics has Clinton up 262-126 without toss-up states (150 EV's there).

I think the definitions are as follows (correct me if I'm wrong):

Solid: 15+ percentage lead
Likely 10-15+ percentage lead
Leans: 5-10 percentage lead
Toss-up: Less than 5 percentage lead

Solid Clinton: 115
Likely Clinton: 70
Leans Clinton: 77

Solid Trump: 49
Likely Trump: 41
Leans Trump: 36

Toss-Ups: 150

If this is the case, then Clinton needs just one of the 10 toss-up "states" (Maine's CD2 is also an EV), unless it is Maine (1), Nevada (6), or Iowa (6). It's a long way back now for Trump.

Of the toss-ups, Clinton leads by at least 2 percentage points in 4 of the 10 states.
 
ChrisL68 said:
In Virginia turns reliably blue it really limits the ability of the pubs to take a national election.
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NM became reliable blue in presidential elections this cycle. Dems salivate over a purple or blue TX, but reliably blue VA, CO, and NH would move the Dem floor to 273. Not inconceivable that NC, AZ, and GA become reliably purple by 2020. All those happen before TX becomes reliably purple.
 
ChrisL68 said:
In Virginia turns reliably blue it really limits the ability of the pubs to take a national election

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VA isn't reliably blue. The state senate is split, and the Pubs have a solid majority in the house of delegates. Also I think 8 of the 11 congressional seats are in Pub hands. There has always been a strong religiously conservative base here with Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell having their schools here. Add to that the Valley is way conservative, the Richmond area often leans red, and the Tidewater area has always leaned red. But with a population influx in the Richmond and Tidewater areas and the state and national Pub party lurching to the right, those areas have become more bluish purple. Add that to NoVa being solidly blue, and that's why elections have been trending bluer here. But remember that we'd also have a Pub governor had the Pubs nominated Bolling instead of Kookinelli. What has happened here is white suburbia isn't going along with the right wing whack jobs the party has been putting up. We literally had a lt gov candidate the last time around who believed yoga leads to devil worship. The problem VA Pubs have, however, is that the strong social conservatives own the party at the grass roots level. But if they can up and realize that those type of candidates can't win statewide office, they'll likely return to routinely winning the gov's mansion and senate seats.

As for Kaine's seat, the 2 most probable replacements are Don Beyer and Bobby Scott. Scott is a nice guy, has been in the house for a long time, and the thought is he'd be better able to bring out the African-American vote in an off year. But he's also a lousy fundraiser and would be badly out-raised by his opponent. Beyer is a great fundraiser, but he's more of a meh candidate who has lost statewide election before. IOW, the Pubs have a great chance of getting that seat back if they can stay away from nominating the Kookinellis of the party. Gillispie is reportedly running for gov and won't run for that seat. If they turn to Bolling, he wins against either Beyer or Scott. As for this election, if Weld or Huntsman were the Pub nominee, either would beat Clinton here. But likely gone are the days when they could nominate folks like Gilmore and Allen and win.

The national press is really overplaying how blue VA is.
 
Problem for 'Pubs is states like WI, which are reliably blue in presidential elections, but red or purple in non-presidential years. GOP can hold a gerrymandered House, trade the Senate back and forth, and control governorships and state legislatures, but can't win the WH and appoint SC justices. That erodes as demographics change and their elderly base dies off and states move from red to purple to blue.
 
cville deac said:
VA isn't reliably blue. The state senate is split, and the Pubs have a solid majority in the house of delegates. Also I think 8 of the 11 congressional seats are in Pub hands. There has always been a strong religiously conservative base here with Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell having their schools here. Add to that the Valley is way conservative, the Richmond area often leans red, and the Tidewater area has always leaned red. But with a population influx in the Richmond and Tidewater areas and the state and national Pub party lurching to the right, those areas have become more bluish purple. Add that to NoVa being solidly blue, and that's why elections have been trending bluer here. But remember that we'd also have a Pub governor had the Pubs nominated Bolling instead of Kookinelli. What has happened here is white suburbia isn't going along with the right wing whack jobs the party has been putting up. We literally had a lt gov candidate the last time around who believed yoga leads to devil worship. The problem VA Pubs have, however, is that the strong social conservatives own the party at the grass roots level. But if they can up and realize that those type of candidates can't win statewide office, they'll likely return to routinely winning the gov's mansion and senate seats.

As for Kaine's seat, the 2 most probable replacements are Don Beyer and Bobby Scott. Scott is a nice guy, has been in the house for a long time, and the thought is he'd be better able to bring out the African-American vote in an off year. But he's also a lousy fundraiser and would be badly out-raised by his opponent. Beyer is a great fundraiser, but he's more of a meh candidate who has lost statewide election before. IOW, the Pubs have a great chance of getting that seat back if they can stay away from nominating the Kookinellis of the party. Gillispie is reportedly running for gov and won't run for that seat. If they turn to Bolling, he wins against either Beyer or Scott. As for this election, if Weld or Huntsman were the Pub nominee, either would beat Clinton here. But likely gone are the days when they could nominate folks like Gilmore and Allen and win.

The national press is really overplaying how blue VA is.
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Disagree. VA is two distinct states. SoVa is mostly rural, white, and old. It's a dying region with a shrinking population. NoVa is basically Maryland.


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JManslow said:
Disagree. VA is two distinct states. SoVa is mostly rural, white, and old. It's a dying region with a shrinking population. NoVa is basically Maryland.


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Virginia is gonna be red. And no, I won't take your money, but I guaran-damn-tee it. Mark it down.
 
JManslow said:
Disagree. VA is two distinct states. SoVa is mostly rural, white, and old. It's a dying region with a shrinking population. NoVa is basically Maryland.


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Right now Clinton leads by 8% in Virginia, so that will be interesting to monitor. Highly doubt it switches over to go red this year.

Just referencing the POTUS race, not any Senate race.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Also Texas (!!!) went from Leans Trump to Toss Up yesterday.

TEXAS.
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I wouldn't get too excited. Regardless of how it goes this election, both Texas and Utah will bounce back when a credible candidate emerges for the GOP. Republicans actually have scruples and morals which affect their vote, or at least to more of an extent than their counterparts.

But on the bright side, Texas will likely be bouncing out of this union in about 15-20 years if DC doesn't get its act together, so you won't have to worry about what color it is every 4 years.
 
EatLeadCommie said:
I wouldn't get too excited. Regardless of how it goes this election, both Texas and Utah will bounce back when a credible candidate emerges for the GOP. Republicans actually have scruples and morals which affect their vote, or at least to more of an extent than their counterparts.

But on the bright side, Texas will likely be bouncing out of this union in about 15-20 years if DC doesn't get its act together, so you won't have to worry about what color it is every 4 years.
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Yeah---I'm under no mindset that it will even stay remotely in a "toss-up" realm, just how ridiculously poor a Republican candidate has to be for even Texas to be considering voting Hillary Clinton for President.
 
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