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Month Out: Presidential Election Predictions

i can honestly say i've never seen BSF's mom's bed made, so i guess he has a point
 
Senate is down to 66.5% with 51-49 as the most likely result. It looks like 50/50 is second, but that result us higher due to having two outcomes combined in it. If you look at the percentage for Hillary winning only, it comes in third behind 52-48 as well.
 
Didn't this poll have Clinton up 12 about a week ago?
 
Last best guess following the new email silliness. McMullin takes Utah.

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It would take a lot for Trump to win all 6 of those. Current 538 percentage chances of winning for Trump:

FL- 41.7%
NC- 36.58%
OH- 52.9%
UT- 73.8%
AZ- 54.7%
IA- 54.3%

A lot can change in a week, especially given the FBI stuff, but as of right now, the odds he wins all those sits at a woeful 1.77%.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
It would take a lot for Trump to win all 6 of those. Current 538 percentage chances of winning for Trump:

FL- 41.7%
NC- 36.58%
OH- 52.9%
UT- 73.8%
AZ- 54.7%
IA- 54.3%

A lot can change in a week, especially given the FBI stuff, but as of right now, the odds he wins all those sits at a woeful 1.77%.
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His odds are certainly much higher than this. These aren't six independent events (like a coin flip). If trump outperforms in one state it is more likely that he will outperform his polls in all states. This is especially true in states that are highly correlated (like the midwestern states or the Deep South).
 
And if he does and doesn't change anything else, he still loses.
 
The NC polling the last 2 weeks suggests Clinton is at least as strong there as she is in FL. Hell, Ross was up by 3 in 1 poll and tied in 2 others over the weekend. And McCrory appears to be going down. Would never have thought a year ago that NC would be bluer than FL. Question for those of y'all living in NC: Do you think the move in NC from slightly red to slightly blue is mostly due to HB2 and movement from some pro business folks over to the blue side?
 
cville deac said:
The NC polling the last 2 weeks suggests Clinton is at least as strong there as she is in FL. Hell, Ross was up by 3 in 1 poll and tied in 2 others over the weekend. And McCrory appears to be going down. Would never have thought a year ago that NC would be bluer than FL. Question for those of y'all living in NC: Do you think the move in NC from slightly red to slightly blue is mostly due to HB2 and movement from some pro business folks over to the blue side?
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Yes. Between HB2 and education funding declines, the NCGOP has made their bed.
 
cville deac said:
The NC polling the last 2 weeks suggests Clinton is at least as strong there as she is in FL. Hell, Ross was up by 3 in 1 poll and tied in 2 others over the weekend. And McCrory appears to be going down. Would never have thought a year ago that NC would be bluer than FL. Question for those of y'all living in NC: Do you think the move in NC from slightly red to slightly blue is mostly due to HB2 and movement from some pro business folks over to the blue side?
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Absolutely. Throw in the Duke Energy and education woes and it has killed McCrory.
 
cville deac said:
The NC polling the last 2 weeks suggests Clinton is at least as strong there as she is in FL. Hell, Ross was up by 3 in 1 poll and tied in 2 others over the weekend. And McCrory appears to be going down. Would never have thought a year ago that NC would be bluer than FL. Question for those of y'all living in NC: Do you think the move in NC from slightly red to slightly blue is mostly due to HB2 and movement from some pro business folks over to the blue side?
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That's certainly some of it. McCrory was elected as a pro-business, pro-city moderate conservative. I voted for him. The NC legislature is gerrymandered worse than our congressional districts and McCrory was seen by some as a check on the "crazy republican legislature." He hasn't been for a long time but HB2 and his shameless defense of it brought that home.

It's also partly that the demographics are changing. The cities are growing and becoming more diverse while rural areas are doing the opposite.

Ultimately the battle for NC is being fought in the suburbs of Raleigh and Charlotte (and to a lesser extent Winston-Salem). Locally, HB2 has probably caused some movement there because it has hurt business and damaged NC's reputation (which wealthy suburbanites who travel care a lot about).

For national candidates Trump's unfavorablility among suburban women is dragging him and other national candidates down. Ross is riding #NeverTrump's coattails and it appears Burr is going with the "I'm going to hide and let my name recognition and demographics do the work for me" approach.
 
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