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Month Out: Presidential Election Predictions

JManslow said:
Disagree. VA is two distinct states. SoVa is mostly rural, white, and old. It's a dying region with a shrinking population. NoVa is basically Maryland.


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VA is more than that. The Valley, SW and Southside are old, white, rural and vivid red. NoVa is vivid blue and is a larger % of the state than it used to be. But the Richmond and Tidewater areas are a lot more purple than they used to be. They're not buying the Kookinellis and EW Jacksons that the Pubs have been selling, but they would just as soon buy moderate Pubs as they would moderate Dems. If they continue to nominate the moronic slate for the 3 highest state offices, they will continue to lose, but they have a great chance at those offices as well as Beyer/Scott if they nominate less rabid folks.

VA is also a pretty well educated state. Trump is damaging the Pub label here right about now.
 
EatLeadCommie said:
I wouldn't get too excited. Regardless of how it goes this election, both Texas and Utah will bounce back when a credible candidate emerges for the GOP. Republicans actually have scruples and morals which affect their vote, or at least to more of an extent than their counterparts.

But on the bright side, Texas will likely be bouncing out of this union in about 15-20 years if DC doesn't get its act together, so you won't have to worry about what color it is every 4 years.
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I love the rationalization when your party nominates a complete disaster which is the worst candidate by a wide margin to ever have a major party nomination that it speaks well to republicans when some finally say enough is enough.

And Texas leaving the union? Hahaha. Lets see how that works out.
 
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ChrisL68 said:
I love the rationalization when your party nominates a complete disaster which is the worst candidate ever by a wide margin to ever have a major party nomination that it speaks well to republicans when some finally say enough is enough.

And Texas leaving the union? Hahaha. Lets see how that works out.
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As long as we keep the refineries, let them go.

Also, recall that the runner up to the worst candidate ever was Cruz, who is about as vile. He would have lost to an extremely weak Clinton too in a more traditional red/blue map. No other Pub primary candidate could generate 10% of the vote on a consistent basis. But right now Trump's popularity among Pubs is > 20 points higher than Ryan's. The Dems have some crap to sort out too, but not as much as the Pubs do.
 
EatLeadCommie said:
I wouldn't get too excited. Regardless of how it goes this election, both Texas and Utah will bounce back when a credible candidate emerges for the GOP. Republicans actually have scruples and morals which affect their vote, or at least to more of an extent than their counterparts.

But on the bright side, Texas will likely be bouncing out of this union in about 15-20 years if DC doesn't get its act together, so you won't have to worry about what color it is every 4 years.
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You mean like the "morals and scruples" to enact laws that make it legal to openly discriminate against gay people in the workplace? Or refuse service to gay people?

You mean like the "morals and scruples" to enact laws to intentionally disenfranchise millions of voters whom you don't like?

You mean like the "morals and scruples" to start wars of choice by lying to Congress and the American public?

P.S. In 15-20 years, Texas will be a solidly blue state.
 
cville deac said:
VA is more than that. The Valley, SW and Southside are old, white, rural and vivid red. NoVa is vivid blue and is a larger % of the state than it used to be. But the Richmond and Tidewater areas are a lot more purple than they used to be. They're not buying the Kookinellis and EW Jacksons that the Pubs have been selling, but they would just as soon buy moderate Pubs as they would moderate Dems. If they continue to nominate the moronic slate for the 3 highest state offices, they will continue to lose, but they have a great chance at those offices as well as Beyer/Scott if they nominate less rabid folks.

VA is also a pretty well educated state. Trump is damaging the Pub label here right about now.
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The 2017 Governor campaign and 2018 Senate campaign in VA should be good litmus tests for its political disposition. Dems will have won three POTUS elections in a row, three of the last four governor elections, and the last four US Senate elections, while the GOP controls the state bodies and most of the local bodies. The fact that McAuliffe, with all the Democratic momentum behind him, almost lost to a complete lunatic in 2013 proves that there's still plenty of red in the state that shows up in force during non-POTUS election years.
 
looks to me like now Virginia is more blue than red but that Republicans are maintaining control with gerrymandering. Of course pubs can always do better in non presidential election years because Democrats are so terrible about voting.

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ChrisL68 said:
looks to me like now Virginia is more blue than red but that Republicans are maintaining control with gerrymandering. Of course pubs can always do better in non presidential election years because Democrats are so terrible about voting.

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It's only in part due to gerrymandering. It really is varying shades of purple depending on the year and the nominees. CSY is correct that 2017 & 2018 will be interesting. The Pubs could blow it in the nominating process again or it could have learned its lesson. The Dem bench isn't bad with likely Beyer and Herring, but it ain't exactly Kaine and Warner. I don't know much about Gillispie, but he's the current favorite for gov nominee. No idea who they're putting up against Beyer or Scott. The other thing about VA, like many other states, is Dem turnout is far greater in presidential years than it is off years. I mean Warner almost lost to Gillispie 2 years ago.
 
EatLeadCommie said:
I wouldn't get too excited. Regardless of how it goes this election, both Texas and Utah will bounce back when a credible candidate emerges for the GOP. Republicans actually have scruples and morals which affect their vote, or at least to more of an extent than their counterparts.

But on the bright side, Texas will likely be bouncing out of this union in about 15-20 years if DC doesn't get its act together, so you won't have to worry about what color it is every 4 years.
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Take Ohio with you pls k thx bye.
 
ChrisL68 said:
looks to me like now Virginia is more blue than red but that Republicans are maintaining control with gerrymandering. Of course pubs can always do better in non presidential election years because Democrats are so terrible about voting.

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#Rigged
 
538 has stabilized at Clinton with about an 87% chance to win.

She has about an equal chance of winning TX or SC as he does of winning the presidency.
 
LOL, Drudge isn't even a good website from a design point of view, let alone the ridiculous content.
 
ChrisL68 said:
538 has stabilized at Clinton with about an 87% chance to win.

She has about an equal chance of winning TX or SC as he does of winning the presidency.
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With about 73% for the Senate.
 
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