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BC: Keys to victory

Pilchard said:
That's true and most bettors are wrong, which is why Vegas continues to offer sports gambling; so, betting lines are not designed to be treated as predictive of the game result, but are designed to maximize the money that Vegas makes. WF was a dog last year at Duke (when most people even here among WF fans thought the line, Duke favored by 5, was way too low; and the vast majority of the action Vegas received was on Duke) Indiana was favored 6 (which again the public was wrong about); and in WF's bowl game WF was an 11 point dog to Temple (which again many here liked the Temple side; and again, the public was massively wrong about).

WF does not get and will never get a lot of public money (which means WF is often a very good play ATS, which is WF often receives a lot of sharp action), but which also means it's even less predictive of the actual strength of the teams that are playing.

Just don't think its accurate to claim that BC/WF line demonstrates that the WF football program is not going in the right direction.
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Are YOU suggesting this was my message in the post Doofus flipped out over? If so, you too are seriously misguided.

Regardless of the exact intricacies of Vegas lines, they are widely used, by fans and coaches, as "predictive" assessments of a given game. And they are, roughly speaking. They reflect a rough belief among the betting public along with the media spin on who is "favored". A kind of public poll if you will. Probably a better predictor than political polling since actual money is on the line.

If it is soooo "wrong" to cite betting lines as to who is the favorite and who is the dog, are we going to ban all discussion of betting lines as rough perceptions of the favorite in a game? Honestly, the anal retentiveness of many folks on this board is remarkable.
 
If it had come from another poster then I probably would not have have thought twice about it. Given your standard posting style I just assumed that it was a another attempt to unnecessarily be negative about Wake Forest with something that doesn't indicate that.

My apologies if that was not your intent.
 
I'm not sure what you mean by "standard posting style". I haven't said anything overly critical about Wake FB this year and on the other site have submitted a 6-6 projected record; which if I recall is more optimistic than your own.
 
Loh,

That response was way over the top.

No one is getting banned; and apparently, apparently anyone that posts a contrasting opinion to yours is "anal retentive". Should your post about the BC/WF line be interpreted as statement that WF should fire Clawson? That would be over the top. We can banter without going to DEFCON 1.

Points spreads (particularly a single early season line) just aren't a great metric to judge a program (FWIW, BC is coming off a 7 win season, and is better than last year; also, the last time WF played at BC, WF was a 9.5 point dog; so, if you insist on using the point spread metric, WF has improved against the line against BC).

Take the example of the Maryland v. Texas line this past Saturday. DJ Durkin is in his 2nd year at MD, they were a 18 point dog on Saturday against a Texas team coming off a losing year and that has been a non-factor for five years. Does the fact that MD was a massive dog against an non-elite program mean that the MD rebuild is going in the wrong direction? Guess if you want to characterize it that way, but MD dropped 51 on the road before a packed house in Austin, and apparently, the line was not reflective of where those two programs are right now. Texas was such a huge favorite because the Longhorns get a ton of public support, everyone is in love with the new Texas Coach, Tom Herman, and MD football is not high profile. The 18 point line told us nothing about where those two programs are right now.

Let's wait to see how each team does before deciding whether a program is headed in the right direction. WF was clearly better in 2016 then it was in 2013, 2014 or 2015. Let's see if WF's football program takes another step forward.
 
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After listening to Clawson's press conference today, there is no reason for Wake to even waste the money going to Boston. DC seemed to indicate that BC was far superior to Wake in every aspect of the game. Heck you would have thought they were FSU or Clemson. We even are at a disadvantage since we have 4 new coaches and they have the same staff they have had for three or four years (probably because no one wanted them) I just hope it was all coach speak, otherwise don't waste your time Saturday
 
I didn't come away very impressed with BC after the NIU game but they did get the road win so all-in-all a good start for BC. I'm concerned about our ability to run the ball against their defensive line but I also don't believe they will be too successful running the ball against us.

Looks like good weather for the game (upper 60's) and if the Wake and BC support is both like it was two years ago, Wake should have a decent number of fans there. I like Wake 23-16.
 
BudatWake said:
After listening to Clawson's press conference today, there is no reason for Wake to even waste the money going to Boston. DC seemed to indicate that BC was far superior to Wake in every aspect of the game. Heck you would have thought they were FSU or Clemson. We even are at a disadvantage since we have 4 new coaches and they have the same staff they have had for three or four years (probably because no one wanted them) I just hope it was all coach speak, otherwise don't waste your time Saturday
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Can't believe there's this much discussion about a +2 road Monday and Tuesday line. How many times have we been favored in a conference road game under Clawson? This may be our closest road line under Clawson.
 
This thread reminds me of the tunnels. Less of this and more of some positive vibes, how bout it?
 
Pilchard said:
Loh,

That response was way over the top.

No one is getting banned; and apparently, apparently anyone that posts a contrasting opinion to yours is "anal retentive". Should your post about the BC/WF line be interpreted as statement that WF should fire Clawson? That would be over the top. We can banter without going to DEFCON 1.

Points spreads (particularly a single early season line) just aren't a great metric to judge a program (FWIW, BC is coming off a 7 win season, and is better than last year; also, the last time WF played at BC, WF was a 9.5 point dog; so, if you insist on using the point spread metric, WF has improved against the line against BC).

Take the example of the Maryland v. Texas line this past Saturday. DJ Durkin is in his 2nd year at MD, they were a 18 point dog on Saturday against a Texas team coming off a losing year and that has been a non-factor for five years. Does the fact that MD was a massive dog against an non-elite program mean that the MD rebuild is going in the wrong direction? Guess if you want to characterize it that way, but MD dropped 51 on the road before a packed house in Austin, and apparently, the line was not reflective of where those two programs are right now. Texas was such a huge favorite because the Longhorns get a ton of public support, everyone is in love with the new Texas Coach, Tom Herman, and MD football is not high profile. The 18 point line told us nothing about where those two programs are right now.

Let's wait to see how each team does before deciding whether a program is headed in the right direction. WF was clearly better in 2016 then it was in 2013, 2014 or 2015. Let's see if WF's football program takes another step forward.
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I don't see how anything is "way over the top", nor do I consider "contrasting opinions" anything other than that. You are the one who attributed false motives to me, apparently, and all about something I didn't even express an opinion on at all. I don't know what you are talking about. No one but you is speaking of "using point spread to decide if a program is headed in the right direction", and I want to know how you get that into your head. It's a little bit strange to me how media can vote us ahead of both Syracuse and BC in our division yet set us up as a dog against BC after we looked marvelous and BC struggled. Who do they expect us to beat if not the team(s) lower than us in the preseason rankings.

But by all means continue reading entire complex thought processes into my brief, factual post and extrapolating from there. Just know that everything you wrote is pure fabrication and I don't see how you think to get away with it. Not appreciated.
 
Just kidding. We obviously won one of the ugliest games i have ever seen (outside of the Wake/Va Tech win). Winning on the road is hard, but winning ugly is better than losing.
 
I'm very optimistic about the program under Clawson, but there's definitely some irrational exuberance on here after the blowout win over Presby. I'll be pretty surprised if we beat BC, but I don't think we're going in the wrong direction. BC got better just like us (and beat us last year).
 
BC is not some juggernaut football powerhouse. The game is essentially a pick em with BC getting the edge due to home field advantage. Losing to BC this season would be a disappointment. Their Coach is on the last year of his contract and there will probably be a new Coach at BC next year. I would not be surprised to see Wake win this game by double digits.
 
YankeeInAtlanta said:
BC is not some juggernaut football powerhouse. The game is essentially a pick em with BC getting the edge due to home field advantage. Losing to BC this season would be a disappointment. Their Coach is on the last year of his contract and there will probably be a new Coach at BC next year. I would not be surprised to see Wake win this game by double digits.
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Only the 2nd game of the year, but it is a game we urgently need to have a bowl season. After our next 3 games, which are all winnable, but also very losable, the next 4 or 5 are really tough. A 3-1 start is the minimum we must have to have a shot at bowling again.
 
liveanddiedeac said:
Only the 2nd game of the year, but it is a game we urgently need to have a bowl season. After our next 3 games, which are all winnable, but also very losable, the next 4 or 5 are really tough. A 3-1 start is the minimum we must have to have a shot at bowling again.
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This. Not many wins left on the schedule after the first 4.
 
Every game is a chance for a win. We will know a lot more about this team after Saturday. Lets hope that we are all surprised.
 
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