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Next Wake Forest Basketball Coach...

RChildress107 said:
If you compare Trump to Hitler as a person I’m probably going to step in and call you an idiot. It’s a stretch to call that a defense of Trump.

I will defend Manning’s performance through year 3. But not going to defend this past year, his performance as a whole, or his overall quality as a coach.
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But no one is comparing manning to hitler. Just pointing out he has a low to no chance of succeeding here. The only things I've seen you say that makes sense is about wellman hiring the next coach. So if you want to say who cares about bball until wellman goes, fine. But there is nothing manning has done that wouldn't lead a competent AD to hire someone with more promise. This whole give him a year with his best class bs is a waste of time. (Referring to CD1 here)
 
Why not give Wellman another shot to hire somebody and fire that guy if he doesn't work out? I don't see how giving Manning another year will help things. He'd have to change his coaching style significantly.
 
PhDeac said:
Why not give Wellman another shot to hire somebody and fire that guy if he doesn't work out? I don't see how giving Manning another year will help things. He'd have to change his coaching style significantly.
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I personally don’t believe he’ll be here through another coaching tenure so having him hire someone new would be a waste of time rather than waiting for a new AD. No inside info just a hunch.
 
The man could die in place 30 years from now. Waiting for Wellman to do his duty and slip away is nothing but hope based on nothing.
 
So, in short, RC is performing increasingly difficult mental gymnastics simply to argue that, while he doesn't believe Manning is a good coach, 4 years and $5.6 million isn't a "fair shot." He needs 5 years and $7.4 million to really be sure. And that, if after the end of that 5 years and $7.4 million is up, Manning proves that he can achieve some minimal "historically competitive" results by getting us into the tournament again, he deserves yet another few years and a few million more $$ so that we can further assess whether he really is the below average coach we all currently think him to be. Because Kenpom, or feelings, or participation trophies, or some other nonsense that requires us to hold on hoping that Danny Manning isn't the coach we all think him to be.
 
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I don't believe the folks with $$ would allow Wellman to have control over another coaching hire for basketball. On the plus side, a move like that from the donors would probably be enough of a blow to his ego to usher along his retirement. Two birds, one stone. Wake Forest basketball finally back on track.
 
RChildress107 said:
Are we using a 4 year sample size or a 1 year sample size. If we get to choose arbitrary sample sizes I’ll go with 2 years (though I think I’ve got good arguments for doing that).

On average, Manning’s year’s 3 and 4 (+12.1) were about 8 points per 100 possessions better than [Redacted]’s (+3.9). That’s pretty significant (about the same difference between us and the worst final four team this year).

If we want to go with y’alls favorite “3 wins in Four years” sample size then Manning’s been almost 10 points per 100 possessions better than [Redacted].
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If you're looking at how Manning elevated the program vs [Redacted], the proper comparison is not year 1 vs year 1, but rather any Manning year vs [Redacted]'s year 4. Manning's first two years were pretty much at the same level as [Redacted]'s year 4; his third year was way better, and his fourth year was a bit better. On average, his teams finished ~91st, compared to 117th in [Redacted]'s last season.

If you do a treadline of the last 8 years of the Wake program, it has plateaud starting with [Redacted]'s year 4, aside from the complete outlier of Manning's year 3.
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
I personally don’t believe he’ll be here through another coaching tenure so having him hire someone new would be a waste of time rather than waiting for a new AD. No inside info just a hunch.
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Wellman's 70. He can basically retire on the job as long as he wants. He doesn't have extensive travel obligations like a 70 year old coach like K or Hamilton do. He's not on the hot seat. Also, "another coaching tenure" would last as long as the next AD wanted it to. If Wellman makes a good hire and the next AD decides to stick with him, that's great. Jen Averill and Dianne Dailey weren't hired by Wellman and they're still at Wake.
 
My best guess is Wellman wants to cut the ribbons on the new buildings going up for the football and basketball teams.
Hatch will stick around for the conclusion and celebration of the success of the Wake Will campaign. Then I think both take retirement and new leadership comes to Wake. I suspect Danny will make it to the beginning of the new AD's tenure.
 
Turd Ferguson said:
But no one is comparing manning to hitler. Just pointing out he has a low to no chance of succeeding here. The only things I've seen you say that makes sense is about wellman hiring the next coach. So if you want to say who cares about bball until wellman goes, fine. But there is nothing manning has done that wouldn't lead a competent AD to hire someone with more promise. This whole give him a year with his best class bs is a waste of time. (Referring to CD1 here)
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Plenty are comparing him to [Redacted]. And depending on how you define success, and what time frame you are talking about, I agree that he has little to no chance of succeeding here (which for me is multiple final fours and a championship). The same can be said of any coach that would come to Wake right now, even with a competent AD.
 
RacerDeac said:
So, in short, RC is performing increasingly difficult mental gymnastics simply to argue that, while he doesn't believe Manning is a good coach, 4 years and $5.6 million isn't a "fair shot." He needs 5 years and $7.4 million to really be sure. And that, if after the end of that 5 years and $7.4 million is up, Manning proves that he can achieve some minimal "historically competitive" results by getting us into the tournament again, he deserves yet another few years and a few million more $$ so that we can further assess whether he really is the below average coach we all currently think him to be. Because Kenpom, or feelings, or participation trophies, or some other nonsense that requires us to hold on hoping that Danny Manning isn't the coach we all think him to be.
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I know it would be far easier to argue against me if I made the above claims but I’m not going to do it.
 
Where's the lie, RC? He just summed up every post you've made on the topic.
 
A competent AD would let Manning either fall on his face next year or take the program another step forward.

If he does the former then you fire him, declare a fresh start for the program, and hire a guy who you believe can quickly get you back to the NCAAT and keep you there.

If he does the latter (by getting back to the tournament and landing a 2019 class that builds on his relative success in 17 and 18) then you are in a much stronger hiring position and can decide whether to give him another year or find an upgrade to leverage the talent already in the fold.

A round of 32 appearance and a top 20 class are probably the breakeven points for keeping him vs thanking him and sending him on his way.
 
How is that different than what Racer posted?
 
PhDeac said:
Where's the lie, RC? He just summed up every post you've made on the topic.
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Then I’m sure it will be easy to find one where I’ve made those claims.

I don’t need another year or two to assess whether Manning is a below average coach or not. I don’t care whether you, I, or anyone else assesses Manning to be a great, good, average, below average, etc. coach. I care about results.

I’ve also never claimed Manning hasn’t been given a fair shot. He has. Through year 3 he had clearly made the most of that shot. Through year 4 he hasn’t. Both are irrelevant when it comes to whether or not to give him year 5, to be honest.
 
RD: 4 years and $5.6 million isn't a "fair shot." He needs 5 years and $7.4 million to really be sure.

RC: A competent AD would let Manning either fall on his face next year or take the program another step forward.

Same thing.

RD: And that, if after the end of that 5 years and $7.4 million is up, Manning proves that he can achieve some minimal "historically competitive" results by getting us into the tournament again, he deserves yet another few years and a few million more $$ so that we can further assess whether he really is the below average coach we all currently think him to be.

RC: If he does the former then you fire him, declare a fresh start for the program, and hire a guy who you believe can quickly get you back to the NCAAT and keep you there.

If he does the latter (by getting back to the tournament and landing a 2019 class that builds on his relative success in 17 and 18) then you are in a much stronger hiring position and can decide whether to give him another year or find an upgrade to leverage the talent already in the fold.

A round of 32 appearance and a top 20 class are probably the breakeven points for keeping him vs thanking him and sending him on his way.


Same thing.
 
PhDeac said:
How is that different than what Racer posted?
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Because it doesn’t mention or focus on touchy-feely subjective bullshit like “has Manning gotten a fair shot?” “Is he a good, mediocre, or below average coach based on layman’s selective examination of what they remember from each game?” “Is he really earning his paycheck.” Etc. Etc.

Look. I’ve met the man and he seems like a nice guy who conducts the program behind the scenes in a very Skip-like manner (obviously handles the forward facing part of the job differently), but I don’t really care about him keeping his job one way or another.

If I thought it would benefit the program to get rid of him I wouldn’t lose a minute of sleep over him getting fired. And the same thing will be true if he makes two straight sweet sixteens and lands a top 5 class and our new cold-blooded AD cuts him loose and convinces Brad Stevens to get back into the college game.

I don’t care if Manning has earned another year or not, whether he deserves to coach his recruits or not, whether he’s a good coach or not. I care about what he can do for the program. Based on what I’ve seen, I’m confident he can leave us in a better position than he found us and than we are currently in now.
 
Bluegrass Deac said:
When does the Wake Will campaign end?
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Looks like the Wake Will Lead (new name and extension of the "Wake Will" campaign) is looking for $1 Billion by 2020. I think that will be the Natty O triumphal ride into the sunset.

ETA:

Hatch will be about 75 in 2020 and will have been Wake President for 15 years. Good numbers on which to retire.
 
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