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'17 Specials & '18 Midterms Thread

Update for cville: today the CLF added an attack ad for VA-7 (and a bunch more for districts already targeted.)

Yeah, and a judge in Richmond held that Taylor's team had forged a bunch of signatures to get a 3rd party green party type on the ballot.
 
I’m going to go out on a limb and say the school was nicknamed “Terror High” because it was an Islamic school.
 
I could see Dems winning in TN, NV and AZ. The question becomes how many will they lose.

A couple months out, I see holding onto WV, MT, NJ (a criminally under reported race that's fairly close because Menendez is a crook) and almost surprisingly IN (because Donnelly drew a weak opponent with weak funding). I'd make NV and AZ as ever so slight favorites, though McSally makes AZ tougher than Ward would have. I still have a hard time believing TN is a dead heat at this point, but Bredesen has led in more polls than Blackburn has. ND and MO are toss-ups at best, and I'd slightly favor Scott in FL. 50/50 would be my guess now.

And speaking of MT, I still say Tester would get 400+ EVs if he were the Dem nominee in 2020.
 
I have liked Tester for a while. I think I put him up as one of my choices to run with Hillary.
 
[h=2] Just About Everyone In Florida Has Already Decided Who To Vote For [/h]
[h=2]Poll of the week[/h] New Quinnipiac University polls of the gubernatorial and Senate races in Florida found that both are neck and neck, with voters almost evenly split between the Democratic and Republican candidates. That’s not all that surprising in a perpetual swing state like Florida. But here’s what did catch our eye: The vast majority of Florida voters are already committed to a candidate with about two months still left until Election Day. Only 3 percent of voters in the gubernatorial poll and 2 percent of voters in the Senate poll said they were undecided.

[h=5]Most Florida voters have a candidate in the governor’s race …[/h] Recent polls of the Florida gubernatorial election between Democrat Andrew Gillum and Republican Ron DeSantis
Start dateEnd datePollsterGillumDeSantisUnsure
8/309/3Quinnipiac University50473
8/298/30Gravis Marketing47458
8/298/30Public Policy Polling48439
And the most recent polls of the Senate race between Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson and Republican Gov. Rick Scott show the undecided share in the single digits:
[h=5]… same with the U.S. Senate race[/h] Recent polls of Florida’s U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson and Republican Gov. Rick Scott
Start dateEnd datePollsterNelsonScottUnsure
8/309/3Quinnipiac University49%49%2%
8/298/30Gravis Marketing47476
8/298/30St. Pete Polls47475
8/298/30Public Policy Polling46458
8/168/20Florida Atlantic University394516
8/108/16Saint Leo University364015
Couldn’t the Floridians who say they’re behind a candidate still change their minds? Of course. Interestingly, Quinnipiac tested this. Among those who stated a preference in the races (almost everyone), Quinnipiac asked a follow-up question about whether their minds were made up or if they thought they might change their minds before the election. In the race for governor, 94 percent of respondents said their mind was made up. In the race for the Senate, 92 percent did. That’s a hair higher than the share of Floridians who told Quinnipiac their minds were made up about the presidential election in a July-August 2016 poll. (That’s surprising because gubernatorial races tend to be less reflexively driven by partisanship than presidential ones.) It’s also a tad more than the share of Americans nationally who said they were decided about the White House in a September 2016 poll.
 
This dude really keeps a finger on the pulse of American politics. Jesus.

As opposed to MHB who attacks and drives away potential allies because they don't goosestep to 100% of his platform.

Are you sure you aren't Trump's long lost love child? The way you present yourself you appear to have many of his genes.
 
As opposed to MHB who attacks and drives away potential allies because they don't goosestep to 100% of his platform.

Are you sure you aren't Trump's long lost love child? The way you present yourself you appear to have many of his genes.

It's really unfortunate that you think that. My organizing is the antithesis of Trump. Anytime someone disagrees with you, you whine as if it is some personal attack against you. If you spent 1/10 of the time you spend arguing with me trying to understand DSA positions, you may be able to decide on your own if you want to be an ally. I still hope you do that. If you judged every political party/movement by an asshole online, you'd have no political affiliation.

To-date, I don't feel you have articulated any disagreements you have with DSA, so I have no idea where you fall on important issues. Without any substantive debate, I'm left to think you are not a potential ally. Just a liberal with no real interest in questioning the status quo of the Democratic Party. Put another way, I don't think I drive you away as an ally. I don't think you agree with any of the DSA platform. So you constantly conflate a debate over simply defining what that platform is, with accusation that I am telling people they have to accept 100% of my positions.

You also conflate the idea that people should vote Democrat, with the idea that you have the right to take away someone's agency and tell them they have to vote Democrat. The way to change the world is not solely through electoral politics. Given how much you like to brag about your past organizing work, you should understand that. The Democratic Party won't save us. The sooner we understand that the better. If you want to vote for Democrats in the meantime, it doesn't matter to me.
 
Lots of good info in this Politico piece.

[h=1]Gillum raises profile — and cash — in Florida as DeSantis gets quiet[/h]
https://www.politico.com/states/flo...cash-in-florida-as-desantis-gets-quiet-591214


Andrew Gillum fell into money. Ron DeSantis fell off the radar.
In the wake of the racially charged atmosphere that kicked off the general election campaign for Florida governor, the two contenders headed in starkly different directions.



Gillum became a national figure overnight and was interviewed by and mentioned in the national media so frequently that his campaign had trouble tracking his mentions as the cash rolled in: $3 million between Election Day and Sunday, when the Florida Democratic Party’s first African-American nominee for governor appeared on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” CNN’s “State of the Union” and MSNBC’s “AM Joy.”
On Wednesday alone, Gillum was mentioned so many times on TV that it gave him the commercial ad-time equivalent of $23.5 million nationally, $3.8 million in the state, his campaign estimated. And the Tallahassee mayor’s likeness was even included this weekend along with 50 black cultural and pop-star figures in the new cartoon video “Feels Like Summer” from the artist Childish Gambino.

DeSantis also said he was facing an “untraditional” candidate in Gillum. Another word for DeSantis to describe Gillum: unexpected.
DeSantis had planned to face Gwen Graham, a white woman, and was unprepared to face Gillum, according to a Republican with close ties to the campaign who said DeSantis “stepped on a rake” by making both a “monkey” reference and calling Gillum “articulate.”
“Ron was ready to be called a sexist, and the campaign had war-gamed for that. He wasn’t ready for being called a racist,” said the Republican, who didn’t want to be identified because he was discussing internal campaign matters. “He just didn’t know how to talk about it.”

Some Republicans see an easy narrative win, casting Gillum as a corrupt Bernie Sanders-supported candidate who is too liberal for Florida. But others quietly fear that his energetic style and willingness to run as a much more progressive candidate than past Democratic nominees could turn out large numbers of low-propensity voters. One data point supporting that notion is the fact that at least a quarter of Democrats who voted before primary day had not voted in any of the past three elections.
 
The Democratic Party won't save us.


No party will.

That’s sort of a religious sounding way to think of things.

But there’s only one party presently positioned to wrest power away from Pubs anytime soon. And that gives lip service (at least) to better ideas.

So yep, I’m not a member of their party but I’m voting for those folks.
 
Wouldn’t a better DSA strategy be to entrench themselves into the Democratic Party, win several races as Democrats, then pull away from the party?

On another note, here is a really good inside look at Gillum’s campaign before the primary including some of the tension of courting black voters and white “suburban” progressive voters. There’s a good bit about Chris King too that helps explain why Gillum picked him for Lt. Gov.

Inside Andrew Gillum's Big, Black, Progressive Campaign For Governor Of Florida
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/darrensands/andrew-gillum-florida-primary-black-voters-bernie

Last week, on a balcony above the student union on the campus of historically black Edward Waters College in Jacksonville, students were waiting for the dining hall to open. Gillum’s bus rolled slowly within their eyesight, and out came the candidate, who was greeted by a few white progressive women with Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America. (A common quote: “You’re so much more handsome than your photo!”) Gillum disappeared into a building, then walked from the union back to his bus. Abruptly, the school’s administrators asked the campaign to leave. (As a private institution, an administrator, Mandrake Miller, said, the college couldn’t support any one candidate and said while “we” may support Gillum personally, they could not have Gillum’s bus on campus causing a stir. Explaining all of this, he peered nervously over at the bus and said, “They need to make it a little more swift.”)

Meanwhile, a white woman volunteering for Gillum’s campaign struck up an awkward conversation with a group of young voters. She said Gillum was the only nonmillionaire in the race and asked them to relate to being broke, and said something about how he would institute policies to end discrimination and increase the minimum wage to $15 an hour. That was all before she leaned into stemwinder about how he’s not taking corporate money. “He is a beeeaaautiful man, too, just to top it off. Pretty to look at.”

One student, Keke Washington, was annoyed. “You could tell she was trying to act like she was trying to relate to us,” she said afterward. “My daddy or my uncle could have been Obama, you don’t know me.”

...

Even for the campaign of a black candidate, progressives’ efforts to build a multiracial coalition at the grassroots level remains fraught — but also can be as simple as, or at least alleviated by, just finding the right messenger for a particular group, and in this case, the candidate.

———-
 
It's really unfortunate that you think that. My organizing is the antithesis of Trump. Anytime someone disagrees with you, you whine as if it is some personal attack against you. If you spent 1/10 of the time you spend arguing with me trying to understand DSA positions, you may be able to decide on your own if you want to be an ally. I still hope you do that. If you judged every political party/movement by an asshole online, you'd have no political affiliation.

To-date, I don't feel you have articulated any disagreements you have with DSA, so I have no idea where you fall on important issues. Without any substantive debate, I'm left to think you are not a potential ally. Just a liberal with no real interest in questioning the status quo of the Democratic Party. Put another way, I don't think I drive you away as an ally. I don't think you agree with any of the DSA platform. So you constantly conflate a debate over simply defining what that platform is, with accusation that I am telling people they have to accept 100% of my positions.

You also conflate the idea that people should vote Democrat, with the idea that you have the right to take away someone's agency and tell them they have to vote Democrat. The way to change the world is not solely through electoral politics. Given how much you like to brag about your past organizing work, you should understand that. The Democratic Party won't save us. The sooner we understand that the better. If you want to vote for Democrats in the meantime, it doesn't matter to me.

At this point in history, a vote for a third/fourth party from the the left is absolutely a vote for the Republicans. It may not be that way in 20-30 years, but today that is the reality.

By voting against Dems in the Senate and presidential elections, you will be de facto voting to replace RBG and Breyer with people to the right of Gorsuch. This will turn back nearly everything that has been gained over the past fifty years for the next fifty years. What we need will be dead for the rest of your life by throwing away your votes over the next 2-3 years.

RE: Not agreeing with DSA platform - that's a perfect example of what I've said- that if we don't agree 100% in your mind we don't agree at all. Let's look at some of the DSA's points:

Labor:

For over a quarter of a century on Wake boards, I have posted support for strong and expanded unions. I've argued with dozens of people that just having unions in every state strengthens earnings of even non-union workers. I've stated hundreds of times that union wages and benefits are critical for even non-union workers.

I've worked for living wage laws when you were in elementary school and for raising the minimum wage for decades. On these boards, I've shown RWers that it's a lie to say raising the minimum wage costs jobs when studies show that employment increases when that happens.

I've stated numerous times that CEOS are grossly overpaid and senior management is actually counter-productive to profitability. It should be given to the workers as this would increase their buying power and lives.

All of this and more aren't enough for you.

Money in politics:

Again, for my entire adult life, I've supported exclusively public financing of elections with no use of personal funds. I've said we should have much shorter election cycles. I was the loudest voice on these boards against Citizens United. Money isn't free speech. It never has been and never will be.

But this isn't enough for you.

Internationalism:

Again, I've been the board's stalwart in saying every day, borders become less meaningful. We should be helping third and fourth world countries for moral, political and economic reasons.

Those are just a few of the ways that I "don't agree with any of the DSA platform". Your blind ego and butthurt keeps you from seeing the very obvious.

As a fun aside, the uber-Trumpy Bobknightfan used to believe that no CEO should be paid over $1,000,000/year.
 
Wouldn’t a better DSA strategy be to entrench themselves into the Democratic Party, win several races as Democrats, then pull away from the party?

———-

Im curious how you think this would work. As is apparent from disagreements on, there is a lot of divergence on some key issues. The Dem party would just use us, co-opt our issues, and then discard us. The risk of alienating people that have strong aversion to the Democratic Party is real.
 
Im curious how you think this would work. As is apparent from disagreements on, there is a lot of divergence on some key issues. The Dem party would just use us, co-opt our issues, and then discard us. The risk of alienating people that have strong aversion to the Democratic Party is real.

Then your movement is dead. You will take votes from Dems allowing increasingly outrageous Republicans to win with ever shrinking pluralities.

You can hem and haw all you like, but that is reality.
 
Im curious how you think this would work. As is apparent from disagreements on, there is a lot of divergence on some key issues. The Dem party would just use us, co-opt our issues, and then discard us. The risk of alienating people that have strong aversion to the Democratic Party is real.

That’s what people thought would happen to the Tea Party and the Tea Party took over.

It makes more sense to establish DSA as a major force and necessary bloc than to just sit on the sidelines.
 
That’s what people thought would happen to the Tea Party and the Tea Party took over.

It makes more sense to establish DSA as a major force and necessary bloc than to just sit on the sidelines.

I don’t think the situations are very similar at all. Was there any actual grassroots movement in the Tea Party or was it just moneyed interests flexing their influence? The ideologies seem to converge more, whereas with the DSA we seek to keep our movement free from influence of the elite capitalist class. Our ideology diverges more away from liberalism. Just my two cents.
 
Stop being obtuse. That’s some #nosat BS. That’s like rejecting sailor:boat::driver:car because cars don’t float in water.
 
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