cville deac
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NC may be more likely to be in play than OH. Obama won NC in 2008 by a very close margin, and he lost it in 2012 by less than two percent. Trump won by less than 4%, and that was with most rural counties voting for him by 70% or more. I think the GOP vote is close to being maxed out in these rural areas, while the Dem vote in urban areas like Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, etc. is still growing. It definitely leans GOP, but I don't think it's a lock by any means, especially if Cooper can make a strong re-election bid and the Dem Senate candidate can organize a strong grassroots effort. I agree that the 3 key states are PA, MI, and WI in the Midwest, if the Dems lose any one of those, it's going to be extremely difficult for them to win. AZ is definitely a strong possibility, as Sinema won an impressive victory in her Senate race there last year.
Agree on NC being more likely than OH, which bought Trump's sell hard. There was a 15 point difference there from 2012 to 2016. NC is gradually turning more purple, and can be turned depending on who the nominee is. The most money and attention should be in PA, MI and WI and holding VA, MN and NV, which were narrow wins. After that, FL, NC, NH, AZ, IA and ME - the last 3 because of winnable senate races. It would also be helpful to have a nominee with whom Mark Kelly would be happy sharing a stage and who could have a coattail effect down ballot. (And I'm still not sure who that is.)