Danny Manning replacement search thread

[Deaconblue]

There is no total rebuild job in college basketball for Belein or Matta. Their respective names get them in the door with the types of players they want to recruit, both for high school kids and transfers.

College basketball turns over its top players almost every year. Find 6-7 competent players (a few of which are on the team now) and go win 18 games in year 1. Bring in a top 20 recruiting class and go to the dance in year 2. Profit.

IMHO, a good coach could take the guys Wake should have returning and entering next year, add one or two top 100 type players, either as grad transfer or freshman and get to the middle of the ACC pack. Get the team to play like they did against u*NC every game.

 

[sportsnut1]

You guys do realize that we would lose Childress, Johnson, White, and very possibly Mucius, Sarr, Chaundee, Wright and recruits Watson and Adams once this staff is fired? This would leave us with a roster of Fr-Djimon, Fr-Gibson, So-Oguama, Jr-Okeke, RFr-Ingraham and So-Wynn, so yes it would take a few years to be respectable considering we can't take JUCO's to fill in the gaps.

 

[Bras_is_Old]

Updated Coaching Table

I made a table last year (when I thought the administration would make a good faith attempt at winning games this season) by sorting out potential candidates by winning percentage. I've updated it to include a few new names and current results. Apologies for the shitty formatting. It looked better in excel.

The basic premise here is that past success is the best precedent for future success with significant extra weight given to coaches who've successfully built programs as opposed to having a brief spell of success after inheriting successful ones. Obviously a number of these candidates are now off the table, but I left them in for reference and added Prosser, Manning and Redacted at the time of their hire for the same purpose. Unsurprisingly Prosser rates very well and the other two do not. I'd also put a premium on hiring a younger coach, but based on the Manning experiment I'd set a minimum threshold of 70-80 wins and recognize a smaller sample size is inherently riskier.

Name // Age // d1Wins // Win% // Current Team // Conference
Bob Richey 36 70 74% Furman SOCON
Brian Dutcher 60 69 74% San Diego State Mountain West
Eric Musselman 55 126 74% Arkansas SEC
Steve Forbes 54 123 74% E. Tennessee State SOCON
Thad Matta 52 439 74% Ohio State (last) Big10
Gregg Marshall 56 521 72% Wichita State AAC
Eric Henderson ? 20 71% South Dakota St Summit League
John Becker 51 210 70% Vermont America East
Matt McMahon 41 106 68% Murray State OVC
Steve Prohm 45 196 68% Iowa State Big12
Skip Prosser 50 165 68% Xavier A10
Mick Cronin 48 380 68% UCLA Pac12
Kyle Keller 52 86 67% Stephen F. Austin Southland
Nate Oats 45 110 67% Alabama SEC
Shaka Smart 42 248 65% Texas Big12
Craig Smith 47 128 65% Utah State Mountain West
Eric Konkol 43 102 65% Louisiana Tech Conference USA
Anthony Grant 53 252 64% Dayton Atlantic 10
TJ Otzelberger 42 83 64% UNLV Mountain West
David Cox 46 37 64% Rhode Island A10
John Beilein 67 571 64% Michigan (last) Big 10
Pat Kelsey 44 158 63% Winthrop Big South
Matt Figger ? 59 63% Austin Peay OVC
Scott Nagy 53 264 62% Wright State Horizon League
Ben Jacobson 49 268 61% Northern Iowa Missouri Valley
Mark Pope 47 98 61% BYU WCC
Greg McDermott 55 377 61% Creighton BigEast
Earl Grant 43 116 60% Charleston Colonial
Russell Turner 49 205 60% UC Irvine BIG WEST
Steve Wojciechowski 43 114 60% Marquette Big East
Ryan Odom 45 87 59% UMBC America East
John Groce 48 228 57% Akron MAC
Wes Miller 37 162 57% UNCG SOCON
Danny Manning 47 38 57% Tulsa Conference USA
Ritchie McKay 54 313 56% Liberty Atlantic Sun
Mike Rhodes 47 99 56% VCU A10
Mike Young 56 314 55% Virginia Tech ACC
Casey Alexander 47 143 54% Belmont OVC
Brian Wardle 40 166 54% Bradley Missouri Valley
Porter Moser 51 261 53% Loyola Chicago Missouri Valley
Pat Chambers 49 189 52% Penn State Big 10
LaVall Jordan 40 67 52% Butler Big East
Jeff Redacted 57 109 51% Colorado Big12

Despite going through this exercise I don't have a great deal of confidence that the administration either gives a shit about winning or has a clue about how to do so, but if they do I hope Curry checks in with Matta, Marshall, Anthony Grant and Shaka in that order. Beilein is great, though he's a geezer relative to the rest. But if he's hot to coach at Wake Forest it's not a hard choice.

Assuming those names are off the board, I think my ranking looks something like this:

1) Forbes
2) Richey or W. Miller - Richey is only in his third season, but has had greater success thus far, though Miller has been even better over that same timeframe)
3) Nagy - Turned S. Dakota State from an DII school into a conference powerhouse (see records of Otzelberger and Henderson) and he's winning at Wright State
4) Becker (only concern is recruiting)
5) Craig Smith
6) Pat Chambers - Winning % is sub Manning level at time of hire, but Penn State is Chambers' only D1 coaching gig and he's made them into a legit team. Not easy. Very much an Odom-esque hire I'd say.
7) McMahon/Keller
8) Jacobson
9) Rhodes
10) Konkol/Kelsey

Not quite as thrilled, but could make an argument for:

11) Grant/Wardle/Pope/Turner
12) Groce/Alexander/Jones/Moser/McKay

 

[wfumike02]

Well let me plain it to you then. Belein is almost 68 and has all the money he will ever need. Why would a wealthy senior citizen want to go under the pressure of the ACC with a team that will take several years to rebuild and who has a bad track record with coaches after the Prosser's death fiasco? Same goes for Matta, he has had health issues and would also be possibly risking his health for a total rebuild job. Smart would require too much money and has been less than successful at Texas where it should be easy with the facilities, money, support and fertile recruiting area to win. Smart is like the Muschamps guy to me, if he couldn't win big in the incredibly talented recruiting ground of Florida football, why would he succeed at a less than fertile recruiting state like SC?

Shaka has been to a Final Four. The highlight of Muschamp's career as a HC is losing in the Sugar Bowl at Florida.

 

[wfumike02]

You guys do realize that we would lose Childress, Johnson, White, and very possibly Mucius, Sarr, Chaundee, Wright and recruits Watson and Adams once this staff is fired? This would leave us with a roster of Fr-Djimon, Fr-Gibson, So-Oguama, Jr-Okeke, RFr-Ingraham and So-Wynn, so yes it would take a few years to be respectable considering we can't take JUCO's to fill in the gaps.

You really think our best players are going to leave upon finding out they're getting a major coaching upgrade?

 

[Pilchard]

Agree that the most likely scenario is the next coach starts from scratch, which is bad in the short run, but if the right hire is made, could be good in the long run. Among the problems (and there were many) with the Bz and Manning hires is that WF thought it was important to avoid a complete rebuild. So, as part of the hiring decision, steps were taken to ensure that previous assistants were retained and keeping the incoming class intact . That plan to "maintain continuity" did not work. No matter what happens, WF is not making a deep tourney run next year; so, I'm fine if WF is 7-23 next year, if the foundation is laid for long term success. That's why I also doubt Beilein or Matta would be interested in the WF job. This isn't situation where WF could be a Sweet 16 team with a couple of tweaks. Best case scenario, WF could make a major move on the NCAA scene in the 2021-22 season.

Also, for all of the Matta love, keep in mind that Manning has taken a team to the NCAAs more recently than Matta has. Not sure why people are banking on WF getting the early in his tOSU career Matta rather than the late in his career Matta.

 

[Bras_is_Old]

Agree that the most likely scenario is the next coach starts from scratch, which is bad in the short run, but if the right hire is made, could be good in the long run. Among the problems (and there were many) with the Bz and Manning hires is that WF thought it was important to avoid a complete rebuild. So, as part of the hiring decision, steps were taken to ensure that previous assistants were retained and keeping the incoming class intact . That plan to "maintain continuity" did not work. No matter what happens, WF is not making a deep tourney run next year; so, I'm fine if WF is 7-23 next year, if the foundation is laid for long term success. That's why I also doubt Beilein or Matta would be interested in the WF job. This isn't situation where WF could be a Sweet 16 team with a couple of tweaks. Best case scenario, WF could make a major move on the NCAA scene in the 2021-22 season.

Also, for all of the Matta love, keep in mind that Manning has taken a team to the NCAAs more recently than Matta has. Not sure why people are banking on WF getting the early in his tOSU career Matta rather than the late in his career Matta.

Matta has a 74% career winning percentage in over 400 D1 games. That is absolutely outstanding. Agree he ain't coming, but he'd obviously be a killer hire if he is interested. I agree that the coach should take the long view re:rebuilding, but if we make a good hire Wake should expect to win at least 15 games in year 1 (see: Tony Bennett at Virginia or Mike Young at VaTech this year)

 

[netflixnchildres]

Rumors Texas-Austin reached out to gauge Beilein's interest today. We cannot outbid them, so the only hope would be he's not interested in the big state school and he'd be happier with a small private one.

 

[RacerDeac]

You guys do realize that we would lose Childress, Johnson, White, and very possibly Mucius, Sarr, Chaundee, Wright and recruits Watson and Adams once this staff is fired? This would leave us with a roster of Fr-Djimon, Fr-Gibson, So-Oguama, Jr-Okeke, RFr-Ingraham and So-Wynn, so yes it would take a few years to be respectable considering we can't take JUCO's to fill in the gaps.

OH NO!! We might lose some of the players from one of the worst teams to ever suit up for Wake?!?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :willynilly:

 

[89deac]

Players are stuck at Wake for the rest of the semester. That gives the new coach time to meet them, work them out, and for both sides to get to know each other. If we make a strong hire odds are most of them will stay. I’m sure they are all hungry to win and the new staff will bring hope and optimism. Make a bad hire and we could have a mass exodus.

 

[ImTheCaptain]

You guys do realize that we would lose Childress, Johnson, White, and very possibly Mucius, Sarr, Chaundee, Wright and recruits Watson and Adams once this staff is fired? This would leave us with a roster of Fr-Djimon, Fr-Gibson, So-Oguama, Jr-Okeke, RFr-Ingraham and So-Wynn, so yes it would take a few years to be respectable considering we can't take JUCO's to fill in the gaps.

who cares? at least i'd feel something for once

 

[RJKarl]

Agree that the most likely scenario is the next coach starts from scratch, which is bad in the short run, but if the right hire is made, could be good in the long run. Among the problems (and there were many) with the Bz and Manning hires is that WF thought it was important to avoid a complete rebuild. So, as part of the hiring decision, steps were taken to ensure that previous assistants were retained and keeping the incoming class intact . That plan to "maintain continuity" did not work. No matter what happens, WF is not making a deep tourney run next year; so, I'm fine if WF is 7-23 next year, if the foundation is laid for long term success. That's why I also doubt Beilein or Matta would be interested in the WF job. This isn't situation where WF could be a Sweet 16 team with a couple of tweaks. Best case scenario, WF could make a major move on the NCAA scene in the 2021-22 season.

Also, for all of the Matta love, keep in mind that Manning has taken a team to the NCAAs more recently than Matta has. Not sure why people are banking on WF getting the early in his tOSU career Matta rather than the late in his career Matta.

Why would the next coach be starting from scratch? It's likely Chaundee, Sarr, Massoud, Muscius, Neath and Ody will be back. Watson looks like a good player. With good coaching and another player or two, we could be competitive. The cupboard ain't bare.

 

[deacfan78]

You guys do realize that we would lose Childress, Johnson, White, and very possibly Mucius, Sarr, Chaundee, Wright and recruits Watson and Adams once this staff is fired? This would leave us with a roster of Fr-Djimon, Fr-Gibson, So-Oguama, Jr-Okeke, RFr-Ingraham and So-Wynn, so yes it would take a few years to be respectable considering we can't take JUCO's to fill in the gaps.

I'm convinced we should keep Manning now. Thanks!

 

[DeaconSig]

You guys do realize that we would lose Childress, Johnson, White, and very possibly Mucius, Sarr, Chaundee, Wright and recruits Watson and Adams once this staff is fired? This would leave us with a roster of Fr-Djimon, Fr-Gibson, So-Oguama, Jr-Okeke, RFr-Ingraham and So-Wynn, so yes it would take a few years to be respectable considering we can't take JUCO's to fill in the gaps.

Its also possible an asteroid could hit the earth and destroy all life. Neither one is particularly likely.

 

[Biff Tannen]

Why would the next coach be starting from scratch? It's likely Chaundee, Sarr, Massoud, Muscius, Neath and Ody will be back. Watson looks like a good player. With good coaching and another player or two, we could be competitive. The cupboard ain't bare.

Chaundee and Sarr average 12 ppg each and could grad transfer/go to the International leagues in a heartbeat, but a first-year coach can't build a team on two guys with 30 games of eligibility left after they've been a part of three straight 20-loss seasons.

Massoud might turn out all right. Mucius is not doing much despite getting 21 minutes per game. Oguama scores 3.3 ppg and would be buried on the bench anywhere else. Watson would need to be re-recruited.

 

[Biff Tannen]

Neath is in line to be our starting PG next year. Try that on for size.

 

[cheeseheads12]

Neath is in line to be our starting PG next year. Try that on for size.

I'd guess that most Wake folks don't even know who that is lol.

 

[TheReff]

You guys do realize that we would lose Childress, Johnson, White, and very possibly Mucius, Sarr, Chaundee, Wright and recruits Watson and Adams once this staff is fired? This would leave us with a roster of Fr-Djimon, Fr-Gibson, So-Oguama, Jr-Okeke, RFr-Ingraham and So-Wynn, so yes it would take a few years to be respectable considering we can't take JUCO's to fill in the gaps.

Been on probation for 10 years now so what is the difference? I go with Bobby Hurley or Russell Turner. Get some fire back in our program!

 

[Buttermaker]

Thanks for the heads up... LOTS of noteworthy items in that article. I can't cut and paste, but here are some highlights:

Beilein was always fascinated by the NBA... Wanted to test himself even though friends and associates warned him it might not be a good fit.

Beilein is reportedly walking away from more than $12mil guaranteed on his 4-year contract just to get out. Startling to many, but he confided in a few players that money isn't an issue with him... Happiness comes first.

Was a poor fit from day one. No relationships w/ the players... They didn't like his tone or style. Beilien was stunned by the culture of the modern NBA player... Missing practices and games for soreness; Winning not being a priority due to the rebuild situation; Players not retaining fundamental information delivered by the coaches; Revulsion to film and lengthy practice sessions.

There was no coming back from the "thugs" comment... Players tried to make light of the situation by playing "Thuggish Ruggish Bone", "Thugz Mansion", and "I'm a Thug". Players didn't like his excuse for the comment... Just own up to it.

On the plus side, Beilein never ripped his players publicly, including the ones who were defying him the most. He supported his players during media sessions and argued there was room for grown men to be frustrated over the coarse of a trying season.

The article then goes on to mention that Beilein wasn't the problem in Cleveland... There is a disease with the culture. Larry Drew initially refused to take the interim job last year after Lue was fired. He asked later in the season for G League coach Nate Reinking to take over. Ownership/Management wants the young players to play, but Drew wasn't allowed to use playing time to deliver his message of discipline.

THERE IS ALSO THE BELIEF ACROSS THE COACHING INDUSTRY THAT BEILEIN IS POSITIONING HIMSELF FOR A NEW COLLEGE COACHING JOB.

Color me a bit surprised that a Big10 college basketball coach was that clueless about today's NBA player...

 

[DeacsATS]

Rumors Texas-Austin reached out to gauge Beilein's interest today. We cannot outbid them, so the only hope would be he's not interested in the big state school and he'd be happier with a small private one.

IMO, Texas played the Shaka Smart situation well... Didn't cut him loose last year once it became obvious that they weren't getting Chris Beard. But now, it seems like they might have to keep him around again given the general lack of interest in the job from a coach that would be obviously better (and the buyout). Beilein would be a good fit for them to buy a few more years until someone else emerges (or Beard decides to leave Texas Tech).