Pilchard
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Deacs are done with the softest part of the schedule, and the Deacs will be dogs in 7 of the next 8 games. We will know a lot more about the gravitas of this team over the next 3+ weeks. Here is a quick take on the Badgers:
2022-23 Wisconsin. 5-1 #40. What do you get when you face a team that plays slow on offense (and can't shoot), and plays elite defense? Lots of low scoring grind out games. Wisconsin opponent point totals in regulation to date:
The defensive stats are impressive (out of 363 D1 teams):
Offensively, Wisconsin struggles.. a lot:
Roster: When games are competitive, Wisconsin primarily plays with a short 7 man rotation (#294 in bench minutes). In Friday's 64-59 win over USC, the Badgers started:
G 6-2 Chucky Hepburn: Sophomore, started every game in his career; leads team in assists and steals; has struggled on offense this year (80 "O" rating); 36% from 3; had his high game against USC 17 points
G 6-3 Max Klesmit: Junior, transfer from Wofford; 6 ppg 3 rpg; 47% from 3
G/F 6-4 Jordan Davis: Junior, twin brother of 2022 1st round pick Johnny Davis; 7 ppg 5 rpg; 23% from 3
F 6-9 Tyler Wahl: Senior, leader in points (14 ppg) and boards (8 rpg); and TOs (2.5 pg); 23 points and 10 boards against KS; tough player; gets to the line often
C 7-0 Steven Crowl: Junior: 8 ppg; 7 rpg; good passer - 2nd on team in assists; 25% from 3.
The (short) bench:
G 6-4 Connor Essigian: Frosh, WF recruited him hard; came down to Iowa, WF and Wisconsin, he chose the Badgers; strong start to his first year; leads team in O rating (117); shooter, but, an unsustainable 54% from 3 and 9 for 9 from the line; 17 points against KS
F 6-7 Carter Gilmore: Walk-on, 2.5 ppg and 2.5 rpg; leads team in steals per minutes played
Roster note: Former WF PG, Jacobi Neath is on the roster, but has not played in the last 3 games. He has 3 points on the season. Non factor.
Score Projection: KP projects a 68-61 Badger win in 66 possessions, while Torvik projects 66-60 final.
Wake Forest is one of the few teams (maybe only) to be unbeaten in the Kohl Center as the Deacs won 91-88 at the Kohl Center on November 29, 2005 (IIRC, WF was the Badgers' first home OOC loss in the Kohl Center; they haven't had many).
Wisconsin is a tough team to beat. This season, Wisconsin has played horrible offensive basketball (44% effective FG%), yet they are 5-1, and the one loss was in OT to KS. As good as Wisconsin is on D, they have been lucky with an opponent's 3 FG% of 23%. So, would expect some positive shooting progression for their opponents. Cam and Damari are coming off big games against soft opponents; they will need to step up on D. Guessing Carr will guard Wahl. They have similar body types, but Wahl is far more aggressive. Concerned about WF's matchups against Wahl if Carr gets in foul trouble. Would be nice to have Davien back and Ituka at full strength.
Wisconsin generally doesn't do blowouts (either way). Deacs have a shot, but with a limited possession game, it will likely comedown to who makes the 3s (37% of Wisconsin's offense comes from behind the arc). If the total is 127 or less, I would lean over, and if the Deacs are getting 7+, I would take WF. Wouldn't be shocked if the game is decided in the final minute.
2022-23 Wisconsin. 5-1 #40. What do you get when you face a team that plays slow on offense (and can't shoot), and plays elite defense? Lots of low scoring grind out games. Wisconsin opponent point totals in regulation to date:
- #223 S. Dakota 59
- #65 Stanford 50
- #358 Green Bay 45
- #55 Dayton 42
- #18 Kansas 63
- #63 USC 59
The defensive stats are impressive (out of 363 D1 teams):
- 3 PT%: 23.4% #6
- Effective FG% 41.5% #13
- 2 PT%: 45.6% #74
- Defensive efficiency: 89 #12
- Offensive rebound%: 24% #55
- Defensive possession length: #33 (in longest)
Offensively, Wisconsin struggles.. a lot:
- 2PT%: 38% #351
- Effective FG%: 44.4 #327
- Offensive rebound%: 23%: #303
- FTA per FGA: #241
- Average possession length #36 (slowest to fastest)
Roster: When games are competitive, Wisconsin primarily plays with a short 7 man rotation (#294 in bench minutes). In Friday's 64-59 win over USC, the Badgers started:
G 6-2 Chucky Hepburn: Sophomore, started every game in his career; leads team in assists and steals; has struggled on offense this year (80 "O" rating); 36% from 3; had his high game against USC 17 points
G 6-3 Max Klesmit: Junior, transfer from Wofford; 6 ppg 3 rpg; 47% from 3
G/F 6-4 Jordan Davis: Junior, twin brother of 2022 1st round pick Johnny Davis; 7 ppg 5 rpg; 23% from 3
F 6-9 Tyler Wahl: Senior, leader in points (14 ppg) and boards (8 rpg); and TOs (2.5 pg); 23 points and 10 boards against KS; tough player; gets to the line often
C 7-0 Steven Crowl: Junior: 8 ppg; 7 rpg; good passer - 2nd on team in assists; 25% from 3.
The (short) bench:
G 6-4 Connor Essigian: Frosh, WF recruited him hard; came down to Iowa, WF and Wisconsin, he chose the Badgers; strong start to his first year; leads team in O rating (117); shooter, but, an unsustainable 54% from 3 and 9 for 9 from the line; 17 points against KS
F 6-7 Carter Gilmore: Walk-on, 2.5 ppg and 2.5 rpg; leads team in steals per minutes played
Roster note: Former WF PG, Jacobi Neath is on the roster, but has not played in the last 3 games. He has 3 points on the season. Non factor.
Score Projection: KP projects a 68-61 Badger win in 66 possessions, while Torvik projects 66-60 final.
Wake Forest is one of the few teams (maybe only) to be unbeaten in the Kohl Center as the Deacs won 91-88 at the Kohl Center on November 29, 2005 (IIRC, WF was the Badgers' first home OOC loss in the Kohl Center; they haven't had many).
Wisconsin is a tough team to beat. This season, Wisconsin has played horrible offensive basketball (44% effective FG%), yet they are 5-1, and the one loss was in OT to KS. As good as Wisconsin is on D, they have been lucky with an opponent's 3 FG% of 23%. So, would expect some positive shooting progression for their opponents. Cam and Damari are coming off big games against soft opponents; they will need to step up on D. Guessing Carr will guard Wahl. They have similar body types, but Wahl is far more aggressive. Concerned about WF's matchups against Wahl if Carr gets in foul trouble. Would be nice to have Davien back and Ituka at full strength.
Wisconsin generally doesn't do blowouts (either way). Deacs have a shot, but with a limited possession game, it will likely comedown to who makes the 3s (37% of Wisconsin's offense comes from behind the arc). If the total is 127 or less, I would lean over, and if the Deacs are getting 7+, I would take WF. Wouldn't be shocked if the game is decided in the final minute.
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