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MBB Game 8: @ The Wisconsin Badgers: Tuesday 9pm ESPNU

Pilchard

Pilchard

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Deacs are done with the softest part of the schedule, and the Deacs will be dogs in 7 of the next 8 games. We will know a lot more about the gravitas of this team over the next 3+ weeks. Here is a quick take on the Badgers:

2022-23 Wisconsin. 5-1 #40. What do you get when you face a team that plays slow on offense (and can't shoot), and plays elite defense? Lots of low scoring grind out games. Wisconsin opponent point totals in regulation to date:
  1. #223 S. Dakota 59
  2. #65 Stanford 50
  3. #358 Green Bay 45
  4. #55 Dayton 42
  5. #18 Kansas 63
  6. #63 USC 59
6 games. 4 top 65 opponents. 53 points per game surrendered. WF is not putting up 105 or 97 tomorrow:

The defensive stats are impressive (out of 363 D1 teams):
  • 3 PT%: 23.4% #6
  • Effective FG% 41.5% #13
  • 2 PT%: 45.6% #74
  • Defensive efficiency: 89 #12
  • Offensive rebound%: 24% #55
  • Defensive possession length: #33 (in longest)
Essentially, the Badgers never give up transition baskets, and force teams to beat them in the half-court, where the Badgers play solid man to man defense and box out.

Offensively, Wisconsin struggles.. a lot:
  • 2PT%: 38% #351
  • Effective FG%: 44.4 #327
  • Offensive rebound%: 23%: #303
  • FTA per FGA: #241
  • Average possession length #36 (slowest to fastest)
Badgers play slow on offense, don't turn it over (#17 in TO%), work the shot clock (often miss) and everyone gets back on defense.

Roster: When games are competitive, Wisconsin primarily plays with a short 7 man rotation (#294 in bench minutes). In Friday's 64-59 win over USC, the Badgers started:

G 6-2 Chucky Hepburn: Sophomore, started every game in his career; leads team in assists and steals; has struggled on offense this year (80 "O" rating); 36% from 3; had his high game against USC 17 points
G 6-3 Max Klesmit: Junior, transfer from Wofford; 6 ppg 3 rpg; 47% from 3
G/F 6-4 Jordan Davis: Junior, twin brother of 2022 1st round pick Johnny Davis; 7 ppg 5 rpg; 23% from 3
F 6-9 Tyler Wahl: Senior, leader in points (14 ppg) and boards (8 rpg); and TOs (2.5 pg); 23 points and 10 boards against KS; tough player; gets to the line often
C 7-0 Steven Crowl: Junior: 8 ppg; 7 rpg; good passer - 2nd on team in assists; 25% from 3.

The (short) bench:
G 6-4 Connor Essigian: Frosh, WF recruited him hard; came down to Iowa, WF and Wisconsin, he chose the Badgers; strong start to his first year; leads team in O rating (117); shooter, but, an unsustainable 54% from 3 and 9 for 9 from the line; 17 points against KS
F 6-7 Carter Gilmore: Walk-on, 2.5 ppg and 2.5 rpg; leads team in steals per minutes played

Roster note: Former WF PG, Jacobi Neath is on the roster, but has not played in the last 3 games. He has 3 points on the season. Non factor.

Score Projection: KP projects a 68-61 Badger win in 66 possessions, while Torvik projects 66-60 final.

Wake Forest is one of the few teams (maybe only) to be unbeaten in the Kohl Center as the Deacs won 91-88 at the Kohl Center on November 29, 2005 (IIRC, WF was the Badgers' first home OOC loss in the Kohl Center; they haven't had many).

Wisconsin is a tough team to beat. This season, Wisconsin has played horrible offensive basketball (44% effective FG%), yet they are 5-1, and the one loss was in OT to KS. As good as Wisconsin is on D, they have been lucky with an opponent's 3 FG% of 23%. So, would expect some positive shooting progression for their opponents. Cam and Damari are coming off big games against soft opponents; they will need to step up on D. Guessing Carr will guard Wahl. They have similar body types, but Wahl is far more aggressive. Concerned about WF's matchups against Wahl if Carr gets in foul trouble. Would be nice to have Davien back and Ituka at full strength.

Wisconsin generally doesn't do blowouts (either way). Deacs have a shot, but with a limited possession game, it will likely comedown to who makes the 3s (37% of Wisconsin's offense comes from behind the arc). If the total is 127 or less, I would lean over, and if the Deacs are getting 7+, I would take WF. Wouldn't be shocked if the game is decided in the final minute.
 
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Neath had knee surgery after last season (partially torn patella tendon)... I don't think he's dressed the last 3 games due to knee soreness. No idea if he plays tomorrow night, but he was projected to get decent minutes this season (2nd or 3rd guy off the bench).

I'm hoping we see Ty, Jao, and Cam take the ball strong to the basket, leaving Davien and Damari to hit some 3s. Love having Monsanto back in the fold, as he's the type of guy that can win games like this. Regardless of how well Wisconsin typically defends the 3, Monsanto can still hit enough well-defended 3s to make a difference in a close game.

No wager from me, and I'll be watching this one expecting a close loss but hoping we can make a few shots down the stretch to steal one on the road.
 
DeacsATS said:
Love having Monsanto back in the fold, as he's the type of guy that can win games like this. Regardless of how well Wisconsin typically defends the 3, Monsanto can still hit enough well-defended 3s to make a difference in a close game.
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He looks to have a decent size advantage over their guards/wings as well.
 
Lets go boys... lets keep up the momentum of the last 2 games (yes I know they were scrubs) This one would be a huge road win for us!
 
Anyone ever been to a game there? Any idea what sections the benches are in front of?
 
Based on that description of Wisconsin and my eyeballs watching years of Deacon hoops, they definitely score like 90 on Tuesday.
 
First test, will be good to see how we hold up on the road.
 
Deacfreak07 said:
Based on that description of Wisconsin and my eyeballs watching years of Deacon hoops, they definitely score like 90 on Tuesday.
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Yeah, it will go like this. We hold them to 25 in the first half, the announcers brag on our defense and we give up 65 in the second half. I don't know if we could score 91 on Wisconsin if we had 4 halves to do it.
 
This is one of those games where I think we win if we hit outside shots early. If Monsanto nails 5-6 threes and they have to start playing out on the perimeter more, hopefully Bradford and Marsh can be active inside against their bigs. We will need one or both of them to have an impact.
 
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No idea how to feel about this one. Watching Wisconsin a bit it seems like their guards can get beat off the dribble but they do a good job of collapsing in help, then they've gotten pretty fortunate with some bad shooting on kickouts. I mean, Dayton's starters went 1/18 from deep and they only lost by 1.

At the same time this team should be undefeated with a win against Kansas since they forced Kansas into a contested NBA bricked 3 pointer but got a lucky bounce and tossed in a last second putback to steal it.

Tallest starting guard is 6'4" so like others have posted it'll probably be plan A Monsanto, plan B patience and defense. Just not sure this team has quite enough experience together to win using plan B.
 
I think Wake brings a lot of fight in this game. They hit some shots, force Wisc to speed up their tempo, and it will be an entertaining game. Certainly not a snooze fest like the badgers are accustomed to
 
I really want to believe we are better than our Kenpom rating. This is an excellent test. I'm hopeful Ty can drive effectively enough and hit Davien and Monsanto for quick 3s and Carr can do a little of everything to win.
 
DCDeac said:
No idea how to feel about this one. Watching Wisconsin a bit it seems like their guards can get beat off the dribble but they do a good job of collapsing in help, then they've gotten pretty fortunate with some bad shooting on kickouts. I mean, Dayton's starters went 1/18 from deep and they only lost by 1.

At the same time this team should be undefeated with a win against Kansas since they forced Kansas into a contested NBA bricked 3 pointer but got a lucky bounce and tossed in a last second putback to steal it.

Tallest starting guard is 6'4" so like others have posted it'll probably be plan A Monsanto, plan B patience and defense. Just not sure this team has quite enough experience together to win using plan B.
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Badgers got hosed against Kansas and should have won in regulation.



Grew up a Badger fan (right outside of Madison), and I was at that 2005 game at the Kohl Center, which was a great game. Connor Essegian is legit and people are going to HATE him. Other than that, it's mostly Wahl and Hepburn. If they start hitting shots, they will be dangerous. And if the Badgers get an 8-10 point lead at any point in the game, it's probably over. Wake needs to push the tempo.
 
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