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2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

Be better? They invite blue bloods plus teams who have had recent success. We could also probably position ourselves a little bit better internally to schedule stuff like state-Tennessee in San Antonio. No idea if they had some reason for that but we can surely try to get one offs like that.
 
Be better? They invite blue bloods plus teams who have had recent success. We could also probably position ourselves a little bit better internally to schedule stuff like state-Tennessee in San Antonio. No idea if they had some reason for that but we can surely try to get one offs like that.
right it just seems like there are so many of them now. yes, some are blue blood only but then so many other random ones


Some examples. And I'm not researching KPs or whatever on these teams just seems like plenty of slots for a Wake team.

Hall of Fame Series Toronto (Coca-Cola Coliseum)

Purdue vs. Alabama, 1:30 p.m. (Fox)
TCU vs. Clemson, approx. 4 p.m. (FS1)

Single Game Events​

Philadelphia (Wells Fargo Center): Kentucky vs. Penn, 12 p.m. (ESPN2)
Tulsa (BOK Center): Arkansas vs. Oklahoma, 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
Wichita (InTrust Bank Arena): South Dakota State vs. Wichita State, 7 p.m.

Single Game Events​

Rocket City Classic (Huntsville, Ala.): UNC Asheville vs. Auburn, 8 p.m. (SECN+/ESPN+ ($))
Jack Jones Hoopfest (Henderson, Nev.): Creighton vs. UNLV, 9 p.m. (CBSSN)
 
right it just seems like there are so many of them now. yes, some are blue blood only but then so many other random ones


Some examples. And I'm not researching KPs or whatever on these teams just seems like plenty of slots for a Wake team.

Hall of Fame Series Toronto (Coca-Cola Coliseum)

Purdue vs. Alabama, 1:30 p.m. (Fox)
TCU vs. Clemson, approx. 4 p.m. (FS1)

Single Game Events​

Philadelphia (Wells Fargo Center): Kentucky vs. Penn, 12 p.m. (ESPN2)
Tulsa (BOK Center): Arkansas vs. Oklahoma, 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
Wichita (InTrust Bank Arena): South Dakota State vs. Wichita State, 7 p.m.

Single Game Events​

Rocket City Classic (Huntsville, Ala.): UNC Asheville vs. Auburn, 8 p.m. (SECN+/ESPN+ ($))
Jack Jones Hoopfest (Henderson, Nev.): Creighton vs. UNLV, 9 p.m. (CBSSN)
we did one of those last year and shat the bed <sad trombone>
 
Right - you have to actually win them.

We lost to Utah (fine) and LSU (gross) on neutral courts to squander those opps.
 
Even though I posted after our two SEC losses that we could say goodbye to the NCAA tourney- and I know that the odds are against us, I’m back to believing we’re dancing. I would really like the ACC to please finish off strong non-conf. I know some people are thrilled to see the top of the ACC fail but it only hurts us.
 
Right - you have to actually win them.

We lost to Utah (fine) and LSU (gross) on neutral courts to squander those opps.
sure but with the prevalence of them we should play in a tournament and neutral site one-off every year
 
Yeah, I don't know why we didn't do it this year. We did it in 2021-22 and barely beat Charlotte (thank you, Mucius, for the game-winner) in a game that damaged the metrics. We did it last year and lost to LSU, damaging the metrics.

In short, we need to get better at neutral-site games.
 
Applies to us losing in the first round of the ACC tournament every year.

yes, along with losing to Loyola, LSU (3 times!!*), needing overtime to beat Oregon State, barely escaping Charlotte, lowing to Utah...

*they were good once, but still...
 
Even though I posted after our two SEC losses that we could say goodbye to the NCAA tourney- and I know that the odds are against us, I’m back to believing we’re dancing. I would really like the ACC to please finish off strong non-conf. I know some people are thrilled to see the top of the ACC fail but it only hurts us.
A girl reserves her right to change her mind.
 
we look like a Steve Forbes Wake team so far, which is good enough to beat bad teams by 20-30 points. We will have to win consistently and defeat good teams to make the tournament. I hope we can do that, but we haven’t done enough yet this season to make me confident.
 
I hate having to worry about this in December. Sucks the excitement out of the regular season. Each loss is a missed opportunity/bubble bursting and if most of your wins aren't by double digits, they aren't good enough. I miss not truly knowing/having hope selection Sunday. Now you can pretty much tell your season is over in January.
 
I hate having to worry about this in December. Sucks the excitement out of the regular season. Each loss is a missed opportunity/bubble bursting and if most of your wins aren't by double digits, they aren't good enough. I miss not truly knowing/having hope selection Sunday. Now you can pretty much tell your season is over in January.
Yep. This is killing college basketball just like the NIL and transfer portal are killing college football.
 
I hate having to worry about this in December. Sucks the excitement out of the regular season. Each loss is a missed opportunity/bubble bursting and if most of your wins aren't by double digits, they aren't good enough. I miss not truly knowing/having hope selection Sunday. Now you can pretty much tell your season is over in January.
I genuinely don’t think this is entirely an analytics thing. It’s a “the ACC has gotten a lot worse at basketball” thing.

15 years ago, OOC losses wouldn’t have mattered as much as it does now because the ACC was strong enough to send its top half of teams to the NCAAT every year. That’s not the case anymore, so ACC teams have to worry a lot more about OOC losses that hurt the resume.
 
I hate having to worry about this in December. Sucks the excitement out of the regular season. Each loss is a missed opportunity/bubble bursting and if most of your wins aren't by double digits, they aren't good enough. I miss not truly knowing/having hope selection Sunday. Now you can pretty much tell your season is over in January.
I think it adds to the excitement in a perverse way. I’ve been living and dying on every game the last three years.
 
It's also a "there are many more major conference teams" thing. Several more teams are competing for the same number of at-large slots.

I think it adds to the excitement in a perverse way. I’ve been living and dying on every game the last three years.
Yeah, there's little margin for error.
 
I genuinely don’t think this is entirely an analytics thing. It’s a “the ACC has gotten a lot worse at basketball” thing.

15 years ago, OOC losses wouldn’t have mattered as much as it does now because the ACC was strong enough to send its top half of teams to the NCAAT every year. That’s not the case anymore, so ACC teams have to worry a lot more about OOC losses that hurt the resume.
This is the case.

The ACC hasn’t been a top 3 conference since 2019.

Prior to 2019, the ACC was a top 3 conference 17 of the prior 20 years by the same metrics (namely KP, but whatever you want to use) we use today. So it’s not the metrics that have changed, it’s the quality of the ACC.

A big part of this is other major conferences getting bigger as PH noted. Another part is the SEC recently started to outbid the ACC for top tier coaches, and then started getting some of the top tier southeast talent that used to end up in the ACC.

We have been clearly behind the SEC in each of the 4 years since the season the tournament was cancelled. We were behind the SEC in just 5 of the 21 seasons that preceded that.

And then lastly, the bottom 5-6 teams in any given year have been awful. Not just not very good, but still beat the dregs of D1 (which was the historical standard for a bad ACC team), but lose at home to Citadel, Chattanooga, Arkansas St, Western Carolina, USF bad.
 
I hate having to worry about this in December. Sucks the excitement out of the regular season. Each loss is a missed opportunity/bubble bursting and if most of your wins aren't by double digits, they aren't good enough. I miss not truly knowing/having hope selection Sunday. Now you can pretty much tell your season is over in January.
You only have to win by double digits if you schedule like shit and your conference sucks relative to where it used to be.

Schedule better and win games you're supposed to win, by the margin you're supposed to win them is a completely reasonable ask. You can even have off nights where you "only" beat a 300+ team by 15 or so, but that means you have to make it up moving forward. You SHOULD be penalized for scheduling like shit, and then playing poorly against those teams. It makes every game mean more, which I think everybody should want.

That's not a metrics problem. Finding better ways to evaluate teams, especially mid-majors, instead of just rewarding the 8th place team in the ACC because they went 18-13 over a deserving mid-major, is making the NCAA Tournament product better, not worse.
 
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