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'17 Specials & '18 Midterms Thread

Nah.

The Republican primary for PA governor has gotten ugly.

On the ugly tone of the GOP race for governor

The race features tons of TV money for negative ads by two candidates: Paul Mango and party-endorsed Scott Wagner, both of whom seem bent on proving who is worse rather than who is better.

Wagner’s ad calls Mango a “phony.” Mango’s ad has Wagner as an unattractive cartoon character, labeled a slumlord, a “sleazy” bail bondsman, a deadbeat dad, and more. It’s both brutal and demeaning.

Exclusive: 'Paul Mango is a disgrace,' Scott Wagner's daughter says in new campaign ad
 
That anti-Wagner ad is pretty awesome.

 
 
Seems like a dumb idea.
 
lol

Less time on the campaign trail is probably a positive for Ted Cruz.
 
Cook Political Report shifts seven House races toward Dems

Cook moved the race for the Arizona House seat formerly held by Rep. Trent Franks (R) — who resigned after reportedly discussing paying a staffer to act as a surrogate mother — shifted from "solid" to "lean" Republican.

Also no longer considered "solid" by the election handicapper: GOP Reps. Jack Bergman (Mich.), David Joyce (Ohio) and Ralph Norman (S.C.).
The three Republicans downgraded from "likely" to "lean" by Cook on Wednesday are Reps. French Hill (Ariz.), Randy Hultgren (Ill.) and Tom Garrett (Va.).

Cook now lists 179 House seats as "solid" for Democrats, compared to only 156 for Republicans.

The rating changes come after the newest Federal Election Commission (FEC) reports show Democratic challengers out-raised Republicans in at least 60 GOP-held seats in the most recent cycle.
 
A local Phoenix AZ ABC new poll shows Democrat Krysten Sinema with a +6 point edge over Martha McSally, +10 on Kelly Ward, and a whopping +26 over Joe Arpaio for Jeff Flakes soon to be vacant senate seat. The poll on Real Clear Politics also shows the race for Trent Franks congressional seat to be a dead heat with the Dem even ahead in some polls. The key is all the independents are going for the blue team as they are already sick of Don like most every other sane individual.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
 
Dave Wasserman on the special election in Arizona:

 
Risk Factors for 2018 GOP House Incumbents

Only one incumbent, Rep. Steve Knight (CA-25), has all seven risk factors. Eight incumbents have six risk factors, 23 incumbents have five, 23 incumbents have four and 32 have three. This is not a hard and fast list, and over the next quarter, many incumbents will add or subtract factors based on their own and their opponents' progress.

The new PA-11 will be tough for Dems, but Jess King out-raised the incumbent in the first quarter.

Mennonite candidate for Congress bets on pro-immigration, Medicare for All platform

Although 57 percent of voters in Lancaster County cast ballots for Donald Trump, locals are supportive of immigrants and refugees. The area became home to Anabaptists who fled persecution in Europe hundreds of years ago, and it’s still home to thousands of Mennonites and Amish who share a belief in adult baptism and pacifism. More recently, Lancaster has resettled hundreds of refugees over the past few years — more per capita than any other part of the United States — and it is home to a large Puerto Rican population that has grown since Hurricane Maria.
 
‘Yes, I’m Running as a Socialist.’ Why Candidates Are Embracing the Label in 2018

Read onsite for embedded links.

Quote (behind paywall)
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HOUSTON — There was no question on primary night in Texas last month that Franklin Bynum would win the Democratic nomination to become a criminal court judge in Houston. The 34-year-old defense attorney had no challengers.

But for his supporters who packed into a Mexican restaurant that evening, there was still something impressive to celebrate. Many in the crowd were members of the Democratic Socialists of America, or D.S.A., a group that has experienced an enormous surge of interest since the election of President Trump, even in conservative states. And Mr. Bynum was one of their own — a socialist who, along with at least 16 others, appeared on the ballot in primary races across the state of Texas.

“Yes, I’m running as a socialist,” Mr. Bynum said. “I’m a far-left candidate. What I’m trying to do is be a Democrat who actually stands for something, and tells people, ‘Here’s how we are going to materially improve conditions in your life.’”

Rather than shy away from being called a socialist, a word conservatives have long wielded as a slur, candidates like Mr. Bynum are embracing the label. He is among dozens of D.S.A. members running in this fall’s midterms for offices across the country at nearly every level. In Hawaii, Kaniela Ing, a state representative, is running for Congress. Gayle McLaughlin, a former mayor of Richmond, Calif., is running to be the state’s lieutenant governor. In Tennessee, Dennis Prater, an adjunct professor at East Tennessee State University, is running to be a county commissioner.

Supporters, many of them millennials, say they are drawn by D.S.A.’s promise to combat income inequality, which they believe is tainting every facet of American life, from the criminal justice system to medical care to politics. They argue that capitalism has let them down, saddling them with student debt, high rent and uncertain job prospects. And they have been frustrated by the Democratic Party, which they say has lost touch with working people.

Outrage over rising inequality has simmered for years, erupting into the Occupy Wall Street movement and the groundswell of support for Senator Bernie Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist. But it was the election of Mr. Trump that convinced tens of thousands that both parties were broken and that the country was in need of a radical fix.

Since November 2016, D.S.A.’s membership has increased from about 5,000 to 35,000 nationwide. The number of local groups has grown from 40 to 181, including 10 in Texas. Houston’s once-dormant chapter now has nearly 300 members.

“We want to see money stop controlling everything. That includes politics,” said Amy Zachmeyer, 34, a union organizer who helped revive the moribund Houston chapter. “That just resonates with millennials who are making less money than their parents did, are less able to buy a home and drowning in student debt.”

Ms. Zachmeyer, who pays about $1,000 a month in student loans, says that financial burden helped convince her to become a socialist.

Studies suggest that young people with few memories of the Cold War embrace socialism far more than older people do. A 2016 survey of 18- to 29-year-olds by Harvard’s Institute of Politics found that 16 percent identified as socialists, while 33 percent supported socialism. Only 42 percent supported capitalism, while a majority — 51 percent — said they did not.

Those results surprised John Della Volpe, the institute’s director of polling, so much that he thought they might be a mistake. He conducted a new study, this time of the general population, and got the same result.

“The only group that expressed net positive support for capitalism were people over 50 years old,” he said. “The largest generation of Americans in history — millennials — have lost confidence. They are interested in finding a better way.”

Many socialist candidates sound less like revolutionaries and more like traditional Democrats who seek a return to policies in the mold of President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal. They want single-payer health care, a higher minimum wage, and greater protections for unions. But others advocate more extreme changes, such as abolishing the prison system. In the case of Mr. Bynum, he wants an end to a cash bail system that requires people accused of crimes, even minor offenses, to pay money to be released from jail before trial.

Some local Democratic Party leaders worry that talking openly about being a socialist is only going to make it harder to defeat Republican opponents. And it is unclear how many older voters, who are more likely to vote in midterm cycles, could be turned off by the idea of voting for a socialist.

D.S.A., despite its criticism of the Democratic Party, does not identify itself as a third party. Instead, many members work within the party’s progressive wing to support their goals.

“Diversity helps the party,” said Christine Pelosi, a California member of the Democratic National Committee who has focused on making the party more connected to grass-roots activists. “I welcome their constructive criticism.”

Many Democrats have begun to ask socialists for their support and adopt some of the D.S.A.’s platform on health care and pay.

In Pittsburgh, eight Democrats in this year’s midterm cycle sought the endorsement of the local D.S.A. chapter.

“People are more willing to come out and say ‘I’m a Democratic socialist running,’” said Jorge Roman-Romero, 24, who helps lead a new D.S.A. chapter in Tulsa, Okla., where six Democratic candidates — four of whom were willing to run as Democratic socialists — sought the group’s endorsement. “It’s not a liability to say that anymore.”

But others, especially among the influx of new members, want to keep their distance from the Democratic Party, which they see as hopelessly compromised by corporate donations.

“The new, younger people are much more willing to say ‘We’re not going to tie ourselves to the Democratic Party,’” said Frances Reade, 37, an education researcher who joined the East Bay D.S.A. chapter in California on Mr. Trump’s Inauguration Day. “At the same time, we’re nowhere near being able to launch a third party.”

Ms. Reade, who made campaign calls for Hillary Clinton in 2016, said she joined D.S.A. after experiencing a “profound disillusionment with the Democratic Party” in the wake of Mr. Trump’s victory. The organization gave her an outlet to pour her energy into: door-knocking in a “Medicare for All” campaign, and discussing political texts in free evening classes put on by members of the group. The classes, known as socialist school, included readings by Karl Marx and articles in Jacobin, a popular new socialist magazine. Ms. Reade has become a class instructor and vice chairwoman at the East Bay chapter, which has about 1,000 members.

“If, after the election, I had tried to join the Democratic Party, what would I have done?” she asked. “There’s no night school to learn more about ideas. The Democratic Party is essentially a fund-raising apparatus.”

Acceptance of socialism today still falls far short of its heyday in the 1910s and 1920s, when the Socialist Party of America had over 113,000 members and more than 1,000 elected officials, including two members of Congress, according to Jack Ross, author of “The Socialist Party of America: A Complete History.”

By the 1950s, socialism was widely seen as antithetical to the American way of life. In 1982, Michael Harrington, author of “The Other America,” a seminal book about poverty, helped found the Democratic Socialists of America, which aimed to realign the Democratic Party toward increased protections for unions and the poor. But the group never gained much traction, until now.

Across the country, socialists are focusing on hyperlocal issues. In Cincinnati, activists helped save the wing of a public library from privatization. In Austin, they pushed to pass what has been called the first mandatory paid sick leave requirement in the South.

“There’s a lot of power in getting people to come together and do things together,” said Bryan LaVergne, 22, a biomedical researcher in Houston who became a socialist after a drug therapy he had been working on was purchased by a private company that increased the price.

“Houston is incredibly atomizing,” Mr. LaVergne said. “We sit in our cars, drive to our suburbs, don’t know our neighbors. We’re countering that.”

Mr. Bynum, the candidate for judge in Houston, approaches politics in that same spirit. He collected nearly all of the signatures required for his campaign outside the county jail, from family members of defendants who could not afford to post bail. He has forsworn donations from lawyers practicing before the court that he is running for, and intends to staff a table outside the jail during the campaign, with the help of D.S.A. volunteers.

He wants his campaign to highlight injustices in Harris County, where historically roughly 40 percent of defendants in misdemeanor court were kept in jail because they could not pay bail.

Mr. Bynum, an immigration expert in the county’s public defender’s office, is not the first to raise issues of how unfair Harris County’s bail system is to the poor. Other Democrats have fought for the same cause. The system of cash bail is now in dispute in a federal court.

But the Harris County Democratic Party is struggling to figure out what to make of Mr. Bynum, who they say stands a good chance of being elected, along with other Democrats on the local ballot in November. Mr. Bynum’s Republican opponent, Dan Simons, a former prosecutor backed by religious conservatives, is already fund-raising under the slogan “Reject socialism.”

“We cannot afford to have Democrats, let alone Democratic Socialists, take over our county and state,” he wrote on Facebook.

Gerald Birnberg, a former chairman of the Harris County Democratic Party, has discouraged Mr. Bynum from talking about socialism or bail reform on the campaign trail. Socialism is too taboo in Texas, he said. And although bail reform is important, he said, “it’s not an issue that inspires voters in Harris County.”

The way to win in November, Mr. Birnberg advised, was simply to turn out Democrats. To do that, the county Democratic Party needed money to pay for mailings and voters lists. In a meeting, Mr. Birnberg, a 71-year-old lawyer, asked Mr. Bynum to contribute $20,000 to the effort.

Mr. Bynum made no promises.

“If I have the money, I will give them money because I can’t organize a get-out-the-vote campaign by myself,” Mr. Bynum said. “But I am focused more on building a movement than I am on helping Democrats get elected. My priority is reaching people who aren’t being spoken to at all.”
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Bob Corker on the race to fill his seat. He doesn't sound like a huge fan of Marsha Blackburn.


 
Starting to get a feeling that there are plenty of public Republicans who will be secretly checking the D in November.
 
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