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'17 Specials & '18 Midterms Thread

Some local election news:

Controversial candidate fails in bid for Parkway School Board seat

Controversial candidate Jeanie Ames, who has called herself a “Confederate” and retweeted a tweet about banning Islam in the U.S., was defeated in the Parkway School Board race Tuesday.
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Ames and Taylor billed themselves as the “conservative” candidates in the race, with Ames referring to herself as a “pro-life” voice for the board. Both Ames and Taylor were also heavily critical of current Parkway administration and board members throughout the election.

Schindler and Seltzer, on the other hand, voiced strong support for current Parkway leaders. Both have said they oppose arming teachers, want to make schools safer through building renovations and support student diversity.
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Chelmsford voters elect Dixon, Antul, Newcomb; back split tax rate

Selectman George Dixon was re-elected to a fourth term and, in a stunner upset, newcomer Emily Antul ousted one-term Selectman Laura Merrill from the board.
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Good ad. Sadly Republicans will demean her as a crisis actor.
 
PhDeac said:
LOL. Props to Cruz for taking the picture though.

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I’m no Cruz fan, and I’m an asshole for sport sometimes, but that’s a cheesy move and she comes off as an asshole.
 
How Beto O’Rourke Is Building a Digital Fundraising Army

At the heart of the operation is a basic idea: that flooding the zone is fundamentally a good thing. Voters can see O’Rourke all the time, in emails, videos and tweets that the campaign posts every day. He broadcasts from settings that politicians normally shun or find so incredibly mundane that they don’t think there is any particular advantage in advertising. He did a Facebook Live post while in line for Whataburger, and during his wait to get a haircut, and while he got gas, and as his son climbed a tree, and as he picked up donuts, and while he drove across the country with Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX). He’s live streamed his jogs, only to be joined by other joggers who have live streamed his live stream.

“People wake up early to run with him through the streets of Texas like he is Rocky fucking Balboa,” said one awestruck Democratic operative.

Those close to O’Rourke insist that he is making the decisions about when and where to post—something he’s done since his first run for Congress in El Paso in 2012—and that he genuinely wants to be seen as much as possible since he can’t knock on every door in Texas. The goal is to give voters the sensation that they’re actually playing a role in his David and Goliath campaign.
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Good article. Beto is definitely doing something right. He's running on likability against a very unlikable candidate.
 
Poll: Dems now lead among older educated white voters

April 09, 2018 - 07:58 AM EDT

Poll: Dems now lead among older educated white voters
Older, white, educated voters who voted for President Trump in 2016 are now leaning toward Democrats, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday.

White college graduates over the age of 60 now favorite Democrats over Republicans for Congress by a 2-point margin. The same group favored Republicans by 10 percentage points during the same polling period in 2016.

The 12-point swing toward Democrats is one of the largest the Reuters/Ipsos poll has measured over two years.

The trend will likely harm Republican chances of keeping majority in the House during the November midterm elections, analysts said.

“The real core for the Republicans is white, older white, and if they’re losing ground there, they’re going to have a tsunami,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, told Reuters. “If that continues to November, they’re toast.”

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/382230-poll-dems-now-lead-among-older-educated-white-voters
 
Newenglanddeac said:
Poll: Dems now lead among older educated white voters

April 09, 2018 - 07:58 AM EDT

Poll: Dems now lead among older educated white voters
Older, white, educated voters who voted for President Trump in 2016 are now leaning toward Democrats, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday.

White college graduates over the age of 60 now favorite Democrats over Republicans for Congress by a 2-point margin. The same group favored Republicans by 10 percentage points during the same polling period in 2016.

The 12-point swing toward Democrats is one of the largest the Reuters/Ipsos poll has measured over two years.

The trend will likely harm Republican chances of keeping majority in the House during the November midterm elections, analysts said.

“The real core for the Republicans is white, older white, and if they’re losing ground there, they’re going to have a tsunami,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, told Reuters. “If that continues to November, they’re toast.”

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/382230-poll-dems-now-lead-among-older-educated-white-voters
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Did Larry Sabato tweak his prediction model after the 2016 elections?

http://www.cavalierdaily.com/article/2016/11/larry-sabato-crystal-ball-blew-it-on-election
 
After Trump shuts down illegal voting, the blue wave will crash harmlessly on the mold ringed bowl of RJ's toilet.
 
Two special elections today to replace state senators that resigned, one after admitting an affair with a lobbyist and the other after being caught kissing a lobbyist. The first is a reliably blue district and the second a reliably red district.

Special election Tuesday to replace Dix in Iowa Senate

PREVIEW: Special election to replace Clemens’ Senate seat is Tuesday

btw, when I searched the Florida district, the first result is a promoted website attacking Rick Scott. The Dems were ready for that announcement.
 
Trump will bring Scott (and many others) down at election time no matter the amount of dough he spends.
 
Dems should not run on impeachment. But if Republicans really think their best argument is "elect us, we won't impeach!" ... that seems like a bad place to be.

And let's be honest, they're going to run on culture wars and against Nancy Pelosi.
 
That's a really tough strategy for Pubs, but I get it based on what Frum said. Also, there's nothing else Republicans are more excited about than Trump. Trump has 89% approval among Republicans. I'm pretty sure that's higher approval than the tax cuts or any other policy Congress has passed.

It's an easy strategy for Dems to counter. Just say we will support the Mueller investigation and conduct our own investigation if we win the majority, but we can't promise impeachment because we don't know the facts and it would likely require Republican support. And if that's not radical enough for some Dems, Republicans running on anti-impeachment will bring them in.
 
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