Stivers’ case that Republicans will hold the House is a mix of determined optimism and cold calculation—though one that, in the face of the Democratic wave most assume is coming, can strike people as either compensation for panic or straight-up denial. The case: “Battle-tested” incumbents and benefits from the tax bill will feed an overall positive sense of the economy—they’re branding it “the Great American Comeback”—helped along by a massive outside money advantage and beating up on House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.
But the first reason, he says, is a factor everyone knows about, but which Republicans rarely tout out loud: “I think it starts with the congressional lines,” Stivers said, pointing to the successful gerrymandering after 2010. Later, asked whether that validates Democrats’ argument that Republicans have tilted elections to their advantage, Stivers shrugged off the criticism: “You can say that, but the people elected them.”
