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'17 Specials & '18 Midterms Thread

Although there is some hope for 2018, I think the Senate will stay at 51-49 (likely losses in AL and IN and picking up 2 of 3 of NV, AZ, TN). The top contenders to run against Tester and Heidkamp are out. Due to the outrageous gerrymandering and being an off year election, winning the House is more difficult. The average turn of 32 House seats will be a reach because of that.

If the Dems don't win 2018, 2020 may be a better year. According to the CBO, about 19 million Americans will lose their health insurance in 2019. They won't be happy with Trump or Congressional Republicans. Due to losing the mandate, premiums will go up. Even if they only go up 10% more than normal, it would much more than eat up all of the "tax cut" millions of American families making under $200,000/year will have hoped to get.

Add to that, the Congress is getting rid of coverage for insurance. In some states, even things like ER will be add-ons. This will make keeping the same coverage more expensive.

Further, 2020 is a turnout year for Dems versus them not being good in off years.

I'd love to believe a huge wave is coming 2018, but I think 2020 may be the year.
 
 
fivethirtyeight has a ton of gerrymandering articles on the front page today, including an interactive map with possible redistricting scenarios.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/

You can click on each state individually. Interestingly, a lot of the PA scenarios have a similar "usually dem"/"usually rep" ratio.

EDIT: NC, on the other hand, is unsurprisingly about as pro-republican as can be.
 
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Even the map gerrymandered to help Democrats in PA ends up with an almost even split. Dems have concentrated ourselves into too small areas.
 
deactherunner said:
fivethirtyeight has a ton of gerrymandering articles on the front page today, including an interactive map with possible redistricting scenarios.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/

You can click on each state individually. Interestingly, a lot of the PA scenarios have a similar "usually dem"/"usually rep" ratio.

EDIT: NC, on the other hand, is unsurprisingly about as pro-republican as can be.
Click to expand...

538 did a whole series of podcast's on Gerrymandering that were pretty interesting. I didn't listen to the whole thing though because that guy Galen's voice and delivery was super annoying to me.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/gerrymandering-podcast/
 
GOP Senate candidate flips out over ‘women’s rights’: ‘I want to come home to a cooked dinner every night’

To be clear, this isn't the leading candidate. He seems to be running on "I'm the Trumpiest!"

Oppose-Islam_Courtland-Sykes_US-Senate-Race-2018_Missouri.png
 
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What's nuts is that Sykes was so proud of that answer.
 
avalon said:
GOP Senate candidate flips out over ‘women’s rights’: ‘I want to come home to a cooked dinner every night’

To be clear, this isn't the leading candidate. He seems to be running on "I'm the Trumpiest!"

Oppose-Islam_Courtland-Sykes_US-Senate-Race-2018_Missouri.png
Click to expand...

Republican U.S. Senate candidate for Missouri Courtland Sykes blasted “women’s rights” this week.

In a statement posted to Facebook on Tuesday, Sykes said that he had been asked if he “supports women’s rights.”

“I want to come home to a home cooked dinner every night at six,” Sykes said, referring to demands he makes of his girlfriend. “One that she fixes and one that I expect one day to have daughters learn to fix after they become traditional homemakers and family wives.”

According to Sykes, feminists push an agenda that they “made up to suit their own nasty snake-filled heads.”

The candidate said that he hoped his daughters do not grow up to be “career obsessed banshees who forgo home life and children and the happiness of family to become nail-biting manophobic hell-bent feminist she devils who shriek from the top of a thousand tall buildings they are [SIC] think they could have leaped in a single bound — had men not been ‘suppressing them.’ It’s just nuts.”
 
This should go here too:

Republican Rep. Meehan, who settled sexual harassment complaint, won’t seek re-election

Of the suburban districts around Philly that voted for Hillary or were close, this was probably the closest seat to safe. Although since the news of the settlement came out there has been chatter that Republicans in the state legislature, who have been ordered to re-draw congressional maps, were going to get rid of his district. This is his district currently:

700x394
 
That district is hilarious.
 
Before suspending his campaign over sexual harassment claims, the leading Dem opposing Meehan hosted an event at the point where Goofy's foot connects with Donald, where a restaurant is the only thing that connects the two sides of the district.
 
unless you put limits on the borders that can be drawn, this is the absurd shit you will end up with from time to time, it's happened in the past and will continue to happen
 
Is there any bipartisan consensus at all on how districts should be drawn? Just purely by population density?
 
Demonwolverine said:
Is there any bipartisan consensus at all on how districts should be drawn? Just purely by population density?
Click to expand...

Not that I've seen. It's an inherently partisan topic. Both parties have benefitted in the past, and the GOP is benefitting a ton currently, so it's tough to come to a consensus on how to fix it.

I am 100% for the algorithmic or county line compromise, shown here and here on fivethirtyeight. Algorithmic is probably the most fair from a pure logic standpoint, but I think realistically, the county line might have more merit to the nation as a whole. You keep everyone in a community (barring super specific cross-county examples that shouldn't be the rule) in the same districts and still get most of the benefits of the algorithmic system.
 
I'm for county line, but I'd settle for algorithm.
 
avalon said:
This should go here too:

Republican Rep. Meehan, who settled sexual harassment complaint, won’t seek re-election

Of the suburban districts around Philly that voted for Hillary or were close, this was probably the closest seat to safe. Although since the news of the settlement came out there has been chatter that Republicans in the state legislature, who have been ordered to re-draw congressional maps, were going to get rid of his district. This is his district currently:

700x394
Click to expand...

Looking at the border, that could have been the district where I used to live.
 
Leading Republican candidate for Senate in PA:

GOP Senate candidate Lou Barletta did interview in 2006 with Holocaust-denying publication

Things are going great in my state, thanks for asking.

BTW, I checked the FEC numbers to make sure I wasn't missing anyone when labeling Barletta the leader, apparently there are two dudes I've never heard of that have each loaned their campaign at least $500K. So that primary could get interesting given that Lou Barletta is already super crazy.
 
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