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2019 offical College Football thread

Pilchard said:
If it comes down to Oklahoma or tOSU to be Bama's semifinal victim, tOSU has the better chance to be competitive, but I hate the Buckeyes and their coach; so, I'm fine with a Bama scoring on every meaningful possession against the Sooners in the #1 v. #4 game.
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What if UGa pulls the upset in the SEC Championship?
 
LilburnDeac said:
What if UGa pulls the upset in the SEC Championship?
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#1 Clemson
#2 UGA (doesn't matter who is #2 and #3; could be flip/flopped)
#3 ND
#4 Bama

Kind of unfair because everyone has Clemson and Bama as the top 2 teams, but don't see how Bama would get ranked ahead of a 1 loss team that beat them head to head or two undefeated teams. Barring a massive blowout win by UGA (not going to happen) don't see Bama dropping below #4.
 
FWIW (not much), 538 gives Bama only a 15% chance if they lose and OSU/OU win. Interestingly enough, if they both win (regardless of Bama outcome), they give both OSU and OU, in that order, a better chance than an undefeated ND. However, they've noted that their model doesn't really know what to do with ND, so it's probably worthless here.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/
 
tigerswood said:
OSU's offense is #2, behind OU's and averages significantly more yards passing (significantly less rushing, though). Their strength of schedule is 49 vs. OU at 71. OU's wins over WVU and ISU are far less impressive than OSU over Michigan and PSU. Similar to OSU, they've struggled against some far inferior opponents (Army in OT, Ok St by 1, Texas Tech by 5).

Obviously, OSU's one loss is way, way worse, but they lead in pretty much every other category, although the "eye test" is obviously subjective. I'm biased, but if the season ended today, I'd put OSU in by a nose. However, I think OU can help themselves much more this weekend than OSU can with a win, which could (probably should) put them over the top.

You also have the common belief (that you seem to share) that OSU would have a much better chance against Bama, which could factor somewhat into the committee's minds. Also, if OSU is left out, that would make 3 years in a row the B1G champ misses the playoff. Or the 31-0 debacle vs. Clemson could still have some slight influence. Who knows.
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That's all cool too. It's a very debatable scenario. Just drives me crazy that a lot of people have fallen in love with Ohio State after Saturday after burying them for the past three months.

I also think Oklahoma would cause Clemson all kinds of problems and would probably boat race Notre Dame.
 
tigerswood said:
FWIW (not much), 538 gives Bama only a 15% chance if they lose and OSU/OU win. Interestingly enough, if they both win (regardless of Bama outcome), they give both OSU and OU, in that order, a better chance than an undefeated ND. However, they've noted that their model doesn't really know what to do with ND, so it's probably worthless here.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/
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Clemson has a major eye test advantage over ND. Other than that I'd rate their resumes pretty similarly.
 
No way Bama is left out unless they have a Michigan experience against UGA and don't see that happening. Bama would have rolled through a tough SEC schedule bowling over everyone while their only loss would be to a top 3 UGA??? Vs. OU's loss to UT and OSU's loss to Purdue??

Sorry but 538 loses all credibility with that call. SEC has been so dominant and Bama in particular you can't ignore past results against non-conf. opponents. OU and OSU also just sneaked by a lot of middlin teams while Bama's closest game was 24 against a very good Miss St. team.
 
LilburnDeac said:
What if UGa pulls the upset in the SEC Championship?
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Shorty said:
Bama would be the 4th seed.
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Milhouse said:
we'll have to listen to biff's bullshit again
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Pilchard said:
#1 Clemson
#2 UGA (doesn't matter who is #2 and #3; could be flip/flopped)
#3 ND
4 Bama

Kind of unfair because everyone has Clemson and Bama as the top 2 teams, but don't see how Bama would get ranked ahead of a 1 loss team that beat them head to head or two undefeated teams. Barring a massive blowout win by UGA (not going to happen) don't see Bama dropping below #4.
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I agree with all of this. You wouldn't have Georgia and Alabama play again before the final. I'd take a 1-loss Alabama team over a 1-loss OU or 1-tOSU based on pretty much any objective or subjective factor. But hey, that's just me. Clemson and Notre Dame would be campaigning just as hard as OU and tOSU for Alabama to be left out.
 
Hard to see Notre Dame not taking a CFP spot. Their only real chance at a loss from here on out is at USC in the season finale. They will be favored in every game as they finish @ Navy, @ NW [could be tough], FSU at home, Syracuse at home & @ USC

Pilchard said:
The Notre Dame Syracuse game is in Yankee Stadium, not at Notre Dame. It's considered an Cuse home game, but ND will have more fans.

Notre Dame scraped by tepid Pitt at home last week. They could lose to anyone. Wouldn't be surprised to see Cuse, NW (Soldier Field) or USC beating them.

Every year in early October, dopes suggest that we are going to have 4 or 5 undefeateds and it never happens. More likely that a 2 loss team gets in the playoff than we have 4+ undefeated teams.[/QUO

As I said way back in mid-October, hard to see Notre Dame not taking a spot in the playoffs and here they are 12-0 and firmly planted in the top 4. Also 2 other undefeated teams that are both 26 & 13 point favorites in their own respective title games. I see no chance of Clemson losing focus and losing to Pitt but there is an outside chance that UGa puts together a fantastic game like they did in the Natty last year and takes Bama down to the wire with Fromme at QB. [thus again showing the total SEC dominance by swiping 2 spots in the playoffs again this year]. But I forget, even with 7 of their 14 teams currently ranked in the BCS rankings & the ACC having only 2, Pilch still can't see thru his ACC colored glasses that the SEC is the best football conference by far. :bowrofl:
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While I agree that Bama is a better team, and prob would deserve to be in over OSU or OU with a loss to UGA, conference championships are supposed to be one of the most highly weighted criteria. Obviously, that didn't matter last year, although Bama had one less loss than OSU, plus one of OSU's losses was horrible.
 
I don't like ND and I hate Brian Kelly but I'm not mad about 12-0 ND in the playoffs
 
Really, where is the ranking for the criteria used by the committee ?

The selection committee chooses the four teams for the playoff based on strength of schedule, head-to-head results against common opponents, championships won and other factors.
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Other factors means the committee decides what teams go into the playoff.
 
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wsc8521s said:
I like living in a world where losing 55-24 to Iowa has consequences
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I also like living in a world where losing 49-20 to Purdue has consequences.

tigerswood said:
While I agree that Bama is a better team, and prob would deserve to be in over OSU or OU with a loss to UGA, conference championships are supposed to be one of the most highly weighted criteria. Obviously, that didn't matter last year, although Bama had one less loss than OSU, plus one of OSU's losses was horrible.
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Iowa was a better loss than Purdue this year. Purdue lost to a MAC team for chrissakes
 
What if Georgia, Oklahoma, and Ohio State all lose ?

Does 1-loss Michigan get in ? or UCF with a 2nd string QB ?
 
BiffTannen said:
What if Georgia, Oklahoma, and Ohio State all lose ?

Does 1-loss Michigan get in ? or UCF with a 2nd string QB ?
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Could see UCF getting in and then losing by 1000 points to Alabama which would then be used against any non-Power V conference contender in the future. FWIW, think that Memphis will beat UCF this weekend.
 
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