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2020 Presidential Election: Biden v. Trump

Vanity Fair has an article out on women in small-city PA who voted for Trump in 2016 (and some claim they voted for Obama in 2008 and maybe 2012), and whether they are willing to vote for Biden this time around. Shockingly, the answer is almost universally not only no, but hell no - these women love them some Donald J. Trump. The article really isn't all that different from the dozens of others than have been published on white working-class America's love affair with Trump, but some of the quotes from these ladies are still amazing, especially after four years of Dear Leader. Luckily, Biden's success in PA doesn't depend so much on these people as it does college-educated women in Philly and its suburbs, and Pittsburgh and its suburbs, as in 2018. Some choice quotes:

Conservative Christians [in that part of PA] have “felt attacked with gay rights, abortion rights...They feel threatened by liberalism and what they see as a decline of America,” she said. “Trump has created a fear that people are going to lose their Christianity; they’re going to lose their guns; they’re going to lose God—all the things that are important to people in this area.” (So I guess Obama was right)

Stetzar has no complaints about [Trump's] behavior as president. “In my heart,” she said, “I feel he truly loves people.”

Stetzar initially liked Hillary Clinton and intended to vote for her, but soured on her when Republicans blamed her for the deaths of an American ambassador and three others at the U.S. mission in Benghazi, Libya. (BENGHAZI!)

A born-again Christian who’s a deacon and a choir member at her Baptist church, Stetzar told me she believes that God “allowed” the 9/11 terrorist attacks because the United States had lost its way. “Abortions were rampant. They weren’t respecting the police; they weren’t praying in schools.” Stetzar said that Trump "works night and day. He is fearless. He’s not afraid to say what he thinks...I think that he was chosen by God because this nation was praying for change.”

Eldredge seemed to have bought into Trump’s attacks on Biden’s mental acuity. “Most people I talk to think there’s something wrong with Biden." Weber, too, expressed doubts about Biden. “He doesn’t seem like he’s always with it,” she told me on the phone.

Weber repeated several right-wing talking points about the coronavirus (“The flu is actually worse”) and police brutality (“not just [against] Black people, but white people”). In discussing her dismay with a coronavirus lockdown imposed by Pennsylvania’s Democratic governor, Tom Wolf, she launched into a hateful rant about the state’s health secretary, who’s a trans woman. “I’m against all that transgender crap...She is a man, not a woman,” Weber said. “I am against all that LGBT—whatever they call it. That’s a mortal sin.”

Oh yeah, they sound persuadable, alright. Link: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/07/can-joe-biden-actually-sway-obama-trump-voters
 
Sounds like it's going to be Harris. Can't say I'm thrilled, but there are worse choices. At least she's a good public speaker.

Goes with the strategy of not giving Trump any sort of target. It's a low bar, but like the Wake bball rebuild, it's just where we're at right now.

That said, I'm perfectly fine with the pick and certainly think she's qualified. Whether or not she has any chance at spring-boarding it into a presidential bid in 2024 is another question. I guess she's as likely as anyone who could have potentially gotten the nod.
 
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Harris makes too much sense. In another year, Warren would have been a great pick - Trump's head might explode. All the candidates are going to have warts, and Harris has hers. But she's a fighter and will add energy to the campaign.
 
The problem with Warren is that she's overqualified. That enrages Trumpublicans for all of the wrong reasons.
 

Roughly half of eligible voters don't vote, about 1/3 of voters identify as Republicans. A smaller percentage of that 1/3 are brain addled MAGA nut jobs. So when you make a strawman argument about those nut jobs not being "persuadable", I have to question who you're arguing with? Common sense would dictate that voters with the strongest political convictions are the least persuadable.
 
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Roughly half of eligible voters don't vote, about 1/3 of voters identify as Republicans. A smaller percentage of that 1/3 are brain addled MAGA nut jobs. So when you make a strawman argument about those nut jobs not being "persuadable", I have to question who you're arguing with? Common sense would dictate that voters with the strongest political convictions are the least persuadable.

One of the arguments for Biden was that he might be able to persuade some of those people to switch to him, and the whole thrust of the article is that these are Obama-turned-Trump voters that Democrats hope to win back. I'm merely pointing out that they certainly don't sound very persuadable.
 
 
Clearly someone is telling him he’s losing the suburbs so the strategy is...that?
 
One of the arguments for Biden was that he might be able to persuade some of those people to switch to him, and the whole thrust of the article is that these are Obama-turned-Trump voters that Democrats hope to win back. I'm merely pointing out that they certainly don't sound very persuadable.

Trying to win back white evangelicals is close to an exercise in futility.
 
The Trump campaign has stopped running ads in Michigan, per reports today. Of course they aren't admitting this is a white flag, but I think it is. Assuming Michigan does in fact fall to Biden, Trump must win ALL of the following: Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, and Texas. That would get Trump to 278.

I'm bullish on Texas and I have been for a while. I think Biden can win the state. But, I also don't want to put any faith in it happening. Georgia being considered a battleground state is a terrible sign for the GOP, but Biden won't win. So that leaves Ohio, PA, NC, FL, and AZ as the states we can expect to decide this election. And if Michigan is really off the table, Trump must win ALL of them, which gives him 278 electoral votes to Biden's 258.

I've been paying close attention to AZ, not only for the presidential election but because replacing McSally with Kelly in the Senate is a huge win. Biden wins AZ, and Kelly wins by a larger margin. Welcome to the new Colorado. Now, the best Trump can do is tie with 269 electoral votes each.

The polling in the rest of the four states is incredibly strong for Biden. I expect the Dems to be throwing all they have into FL, PA, and NC, followed by Ohio. The senate race in NC is too valuable not to, and any one of those states should seal the election for Biden. I'm honestly shocked that Biden's path is this easy.
 
Suburban Lifestyle Dream is how I'd describe the median Tunnels poster
 
goddamnit i wish i'd never seen that deranged tweet what am i supposed to do with that information
 
Biff looks like a guy who buys tennis shoes from Nordstrom
 
The Trump campaign has stopped running ads in Michigan, per reports today. Of course they aren't admitting this is a white flag, but I think it is. Assuming Michigan does in fact fall to Biden, Trump must win ALL of the following: Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, and Texas. That would get Trump to 278.

I'm bullish on Texas and I have been for a while. I think Biden can win the state. But, I also don't want to put any faith in it happening. Georgia being considered a battleground state is a terrible sign for the GOP, but Biden won't win. So that leaves Ohio, PA, NC, FL, and AZ as the states we can expect to decide this election. And if Michigan is really off the table, Trump must win ALL of them, which gives him 278 electoral votes to Biden's 258.

I've been paying close attention to AZ, not only for the presidential election but because replacing McSally with Kelly in the Senate is a huge win. Biden wins AZ, and Kelly wins by a larger margin. Welcome to the new Colorado. Now, the best Trump can do is tie with 269 electoral votes each.

The polling in the rest of the four states is incredibly strong for Biden. I expect the Dems to be throwing all they have into FL, PA, and NC, followed by Ohio. The senate race in NC is too valuable not to, and any one of those states should seal the election for Biden. I'm honestly shocked that Biden's path is this easy.

Don't forget Omaha and northern ME. There were scenarios last time and are this time around where you can have 1 of those make the difference between 269 and 270. We need 270, whereas Pubs only need 269. And in a poll today, Biden was up 2-3 points in northern ME.

As for AZ, McSally resembles toast at the moment. Biden has been up a few in most AZ polls, and Kelly is outperforming Biden by a few points in most polls. Cunningham has also been looking good in recent polls. Assuming Jones loses AL, we need 4 seats. In the close contests, I'd rate my level of confidence starting in CO, AZ, NC, ME, MT then IA. And no one was even talking about MT and IA 6 months ago.
 
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