2020 Presidential Election: Biden v. Trump

[Highland Deac]

For what it’s worth, Nate silver says that Dems having > 6-8% lead in national polls leads to an EC victory.

Yeah, I do think that the larger a candidate's national popular vote lead, the more likely it becomes that they'll get an EC majority as well. It's very hard seeing a candidate winning by more than 5% nationally not also getting at least a bare EC majority as well. Hillary won the popular vote by around 2% and very nearly won the EC. I do agree that there needs to be more focus on frequent polling in battleground states and close Senate races.

 

[ChrisL68]

I found out this week that the two members of my immediate family who voted Trump in 2016 are voting libertarian this time. I'm actually flabbergasted one of them is abandoning ship but that person is over 70 and has been quarantining since march. The last few weeks seems to have pushed her in that direction. Better late than never. Hopefully this same movement is being repeated in households across the country.

I whole-heartedly support conservatives voting 3rd party.

 

[cville deac]

For what it’s worth, Nate silver says that Dems having > 6-8% lead in national polls leads to an EC victory.

But what sucks is Biden doesn't have a decent chance to win the EC unless he has at least a 4% win. The EC used to follow fairly closely the popular vote, but the emergence of Trump has really fucked the EC up bigly. It's caused by his more narrowly winning traditional red states and getting blown out in blue states. So you pick off enough purple states and you can win the EC while losing the vote by 4-5%. The EC is no longer a quaint constitutional tradition.

 

[PhDeac]

But if a small percentage of CA Dems moved East, Democrats would dominate the EC and Senate.

 

[birdman]

But what sucks is Biden doesn't have a decent chance to win the EC unless he has at least a 4% win. The EC used to follow fairly closely the popular vote, but the emergence of Trump has really fucked the EC up bigly. It's caused by his more narrowly winning traditional red states and getting blown out in blue states. So you pick off enough purple states and you can win the EC while losing the vote by 4-5%. The EC is no longer a quaint constitutional tradition.

Maybe it wasn’t clear, but my point was that national polls have some predictive power in that when Dems are ahead by at least ~6% nationally, they are likely to win the EC. 4% lead nationally is probably a bare minimum. This is what Nate Silver says anyway.

 

[ChrisL68]

At 4 percentage points silver estimates that Biden has between 80% and 90% probability of winning the election.

 

[DeacMan]

At 4 percentage points silver estimates that Biden has between 80% and 90% probability of winning the election.

This is going to be a landslide for Biden. No way Trump emerges from the debate and the two Baghdad Bob medical press conferences without seeing support among the undecided crowd swing towards Biden. Once new polls start taking that into account Biden's lead will be north of 8% nationally and that means Trump will have a mountain to climb in what two weeks ago were several swing states (i.e. - places he was down 4-6%).

 

[birdman]

At 4 percentage points silver estimates that Biden has between 80% and 90% probability of winning the election.

I guess there is linguistic uncertainty, but “Likely to win,” probably means >= 95% to win in some one like Nate silver’s mind.

 

[Ball State Deac]

This is going to be a landslide for Biden. No way Trump emerges from the debate and the two Baghdad Bob medical press conferences without seeing support among the undecided crowd swing towards Biden. Once new polls start taking that into account Biden's lead will be north of 8% nationally and that means Trump will have a mountain to climb in what two weeks ago were several swing states (i.e. - places he was down 4-6%).

Ha! Good Bob reference.

 

[Deacfreak07]

This is going to be a landslide for Biden. No way Trump emerges from the debate and the two Baghdad Bob medical press conferences without seeing support among the undecided crowd swing towards Biden. Once new polls start taking that into account Biden's lead will be north of 8% nationally and that means Trump will have a mountain to climb in what two weeks ago were several swing states (i.e. - places he was down 4-6%).

I swear to Jesus tittyfucking Christ is the Democratic GOTV effort starts drinking this koolaid, I may got drown myself in the ocean. His cult will go vote for him if he died 3 days before. It’ll be like Laker fans bringing flowers to the Staples Center. If liberals let up at all, he wins.

 

[warak]

Agreed

 

[PhDeac]

I share your concern, but Democrats will vote against the rooting corpse who whoever is running for President.

Watching Cards-Panthers and we've got a Trump ad with a Black retired NFL player talking about how great Trump is for Black people. And then they just aired an ad with a veteran talking about how Joe Biden was the senator who got him some vehicle he needed when no other senator wanted to get it. Yeah ok.

 

[Deacfreak07]

I share your concern, but Democrats will vote against the rooting corpse who whoever is running for President.

Watching Cards-Panthers and we've got a Trump ad with a Black retired NFL player talking about how great Trump is for Black people. And then they just aired an ad with a veteran talking about how Joe Biden was the senator who got him some vehicle he needed when no other senator wanted to get it. Yeah ok.

Democrats won’t even vote in the damn rain. OWGs will shamble into their community centers like zombies storming the beaches of Normandy.

 

[PhDeac]

LOL.

Jill Biden makes the case for her husband in Minnesota.

https://www.startribune.com/jill-biden-on-election-this-is-it-there-are-no-do-overs/572626741/

 

[ChrisL68]

All evidence is pointing to huge Dem turnout.

 

[Ball State Deac]

From a total hack standpoint, I’m worried that if Trump dies, it’ll give permission to the RVAT folks to vote for Pence.

 

[deaconson]

I dunno. More likely not vote. Pence has been, disingenuously, all aboard the trump train. He does not come out unscathed in that scenario.

 

[Ball State Deac]

We can’t lose a single never-trumper. fla and oh are going to be razor thin.

 

[BeachBumDeac]

The number of RVAT who would turn out for Pence is far, far lower than the number of mouth breathing MAGAts who would totally tune out of politics if there was no Trump.

 

[Highland Deac]

The number of RVAT who would turn out for Pence is far, far lower than the number of mouth breathing MAGAts who would totally tune out of politics if there was no Trump.

Yeah, I just don't see Pence bringing out Trumpites like Dear Leader himself would. He's too bland and not macho or dramatic or entertaining or crude enough for them. I don't think even Evangelicals would turn out for Pence the way they have for Trump, even though on paper at least Pence is more their cup of tea. In the Cult of Trump there is only one Dear Leader, and it's not Pence (although I suspect at least one of Trump's kids would love to claim that mantle, at least for grifting the rubes purposes.)