Highland Deac
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 26, 2012
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For what it’s worth, Nate silver says that Dems having > 6-8% lead in national polls leads to an EC victory.
Yeah, I do think that the larger a candidate's national popular vote lead, the more likely it becomes that they'll get an EC majority as well. It's very hard seeing a candidate winning by more than 5% nationally not also getting at least a bare EC majority as well. Hillary won the popular vote by around 2% and very nearly won the EC. I do agree that there needs to be more focus on frequent polling in battleground states and close Senate races.