cville deac
Well-known member
- Joined
- Apr 14, 2011
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Why would you believe that after all the data we have that suggests Trump's core supporters are unwavering in their support for Donald Trump regardless of how he behaves or what he does?
Also this. That 40-43% is baked in and ain't changing. I agree with you and 06 that the debate changed nothing and we need to outvote them. And I'm not as confident as Deacman for 2 reasons. First the EC. Right now Sabato has lean/likely Biden at 269 (though he has WI as a toss-up, whereas I think it should be a lean and have more confidence in WI than PA). Nate Silver had a piece recently showing the likelihood of a Biden EC victory based on his winning the popular vote. If Biden wins the popular vote by 1%, he has just a 7% chance of winning the EC, which is criminal. It's not until he gets in the 4-5% range that he gets strong odds. Second is the SCOTUS. I think Bush v. Gore was wrongly decided, and now it'll be 6-3. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion the SCOTUS will say it's okay to count all of those absentee ballots in PA. And if that were to happen, we're officially a banana republic.
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